If/when this company turns it around, the rip will be biblical. Probably more pain in the future, but risking a modest amount of cash on leap calls is worth it.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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I was going to push back on this, thinking maybe the charts showing a sign of a bottoming, but really that thing needs to prove itself a **** ton more. Still in clear cut falling knife mode.
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Might be the most factually inaccurate POV I've heard since Mike Wilson's nonsense a few years ago.
Once again INTC bounces off that 19-20ish area of support on takeover news. This like the 3rd time iirc lol. 24-25ish area usually resistance.
This was one of their best weeks in forever.
Talked about on Fast Money during the week.
But yes, back to that resistance level.
I feel it's a somewhat similar story to WOLF. When are they going to get their Fab's up, running and producing cash?
MSFT stock languishing as the great rotation away from some of the Mag7 continues. Taking solace in the fact that the EV/EBITDA multiple is still very competitive and as the economy slows, interest rates will come down along with the dollar. I have a better way to bring the 10 yr treasury down but rates at the long end should be coming down at least a little. Of course a recession would be really terrible for all stocks but hopefully the economy stays above water at least.
The fabs are a long term project and not likely to be profitable any time soon.
They still have to name a permanent CEO. Mind you that CEO might be negotiating a nice parachute for himself if any of these takeover talks amount to anything.
Meanwhile, it’s been in a pretty defined trading range since that massive 30%+ drop last year.
DEI and poor education was killing the CHIPs Act. The DEI bans are a good step (but banned programs tend to come back under new names)
There were dozens of hoops manufacturers had to jump through and the base of worker talent didn't exist in US. TSMC tried hiring local (AZ) and couldn't meet needs. They flew in workers from Taiwan and the bureaucrats felt exposed and protested. TSMC tried local again and finally had to move work to Japan - canceling new fab in AZ.
Just today I was reading about NYC schools and read "the just-released National Assessment of Educational Progress (a k a, the “nation’s report card”): It finds just 23% of eighth-graders in the city are proficient in math, and 29% in reading."
As for NYC budget "New York City schools receive $44,790 per child." 45k /student and less than a third are at base level. Lots of grift.
There is talk of Global Foundries CEO taking over at Intel. GF has HQ in Malta NY and used to be fab division of AMD . GF isn't know to be well oiled machine either but what fab could have been in past environment?
DEI killed the CHIPS Act
NY test scores plummet, kids flee
New admin is pushing hard for chip making in the US. Any company willing/capable of this will likely be rewarded.
I got concerned when I saw that Warren Buffet doesn’t own any MSFT but then I read a story about how close he is with Bill Gates and he thought it would look shady…although Buffet admitted in the same story that he was stupid to not buy MSFT many years ago when it was cheap and that he really doesn’t consider himself a very competent tech investor.
I’m seeing the median price target is still $500 ish but I’m not holding my breath.
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I sold all my MSFT a few weeks ago. I may be missing it but don’t see the growth story anymore. I put that money into DASH and HOOD and it’s done more for me in 2 weeks than MSFT did in last 12 months.
Anyone have thoughts on TOST? I unfortunately sold 15 points ago and been thinking of getting back in.
I’ll also add that I think platforms like RDDT, UBER, ABNB, DASH, and a few others could be the next-gen Mag7. Very little competition. Great products and consumer engagement. I bought and sold DASH a few times but bought again before recent earnings. The CEO indicated they will push beyond food delivery to “local commerce” delivery. I have friends in trades (plumbers/electricians) where they are working on a job and need a part and it drives them crazy to have to run out and get it. And the specialty stores that support those trades hate sending a delivery guy. Plenty more examples of new opportunities for DASH. Plus UBER just sued DASH so that’s probably a sign that DASH is crushing UBER-Eats.
Which ETF's do you guys like?
I love VOO, VTI, and VOOG
Also like VFIAX and VFINX from Vanguard
Usually like to have between 10-15 % of my portfolio liquid for sale days, so JPST, SHV and WMPXX are my go to's for that - anyone else do something similar in the same or different funds?
I love VOO, VTI, and VOOG
Also like VFIAX and VFINX from Vanguard
Usually like to have between 10-15 % of my portfolio liquid for sale days, so JPST, SHV and WMPXX are my go to's for that - anyone else do something similar in the same or different funds?
Still rocking on NKE. Got stopped out of it but will relook if it gets into the mid-60s.
I never know what to make of Ackman. I know he’s rich and gets a lot of attention but he’s picked some stinkers.
He makes large bets and is right more often than not. Don't need to be perfect to be very successful. I forgot who said this.....paraphasing.....I made billions by never buying at the bottom or selling at the top.
Depends on what you are trying to accomplish. The Vanguard ETFs on your list are good choices for general market exposure that is indexed. As a general rule, the ETF version is usually the better choice then the mutual fund as you have better liquidity if needed. you also probably have lower expenses since the etf has less regulatory reporting requirements and are more operationally efficient as they don't have to pass through capital gains and dividends.
In our main brokerage account, we use 6 ETFs:
VONE - Russell 100 index. Why? Started with it in 2013 based on recommendation to get some mid-cap exposure. It essentially tracks the VOO or VTI but it was too late to change it without severe tax consequences. LOL!
VONG
IGM
VTV
VIG
VB
VOO/IVV is a no-brainer. I use them in most accounts. Also, we use the fund equivalent of VTI in our daughter's 529.
As for funds, my go-to are FDGRX, PRWCX/TRAIX, and DODGX. Unfortunately, the first two are closed to new investors, but I think you can gain access to them if you have a large enough account on Fidelity or T. Rowe. Just make sure to use funds in tax-deferred accounts due to taxable distributions.
With how involved you are in the market and the amount of research that you do, you should never invest in ETFs. You should be 100% or close to it in individual stocks. I would suggest a core portfolio of 10-20 stocks that make up 80% of your net investment and another 10-30 minor holdings.
I know you're right. I'm slowly evolving. My core stock basket (personal account) of 33 stocks has done really well over the past 18 months vs. the S&P 500. In 2024 it beat the VOO by +10% (1000bps). It's based on research from FS Insights/Tom Lee plus my own research and judgment.
About 50% of our portfolio is in rollover IRAs, so we have total control without tax consequences. Unfortunately, that brokerage E-Trade account is our 2nd biggest and the gains are huge. The tax hit would be crazy.
Appreciate the thoughts and advice.
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If it’s better than the competition, why try to buy the competition?
Seems to be widely understood and reported on why Elon et al made that bid. And it wasn't for it to be accepted.
The bolded is a pretty broad statement.... can't say i agree with that at all. Diversification is best, my opinion is majority in an etf/fund like VOO or VTI, with some individual stocks on the side to try and capture additional growth. To each their own
Unless it’s your full time job, no one is that involved. Reading other people’s research is not involved.
I’m shocked that OpenAI had a five year head start and Xai has already surpassed it all because they built a computer everyone said was impossible to build.
Almost as believable as DeepSeek saying how cheap it was to build an AI tool.
NKE a little bump off this news. Wouldnt think much of it myself but 4-5% gain.
INTC up 10% again on the TSMC AVGO news. Don’t know if I’d say it’s a breakout yet but it’s above a resistance area for now.
Still wonder about a takeover but new admin might be amenable takeovers in general but the other side of that is would they be as amenable to foreign ownership.