Yea, I was in a managers meeting out of town in October 87 and our company was very dependent on IPOs, M&A, and stock/bond offerings. That was before cell phones, of course, so we were taking turns going out to pay phones to hear the latest. The “good news,” as I recall, was that it was a quick recovery similar to Covid (and different from dot.com and GFC). I don’t trade much at all so I don’t get too excited about big ups or downs. Withdraw 2% max annually from portfolio (retired).
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Very reasonable post for a thread bear.
Regarding WOLF. The CHIPS act sounds safe.
I was way too young to experience that crash, but people forget that the market ended up in 87. That should be a lesson for all.
Unless you said the market will fall all because of Trump (and he push for tariffs) you are wrong no matter what happens. This has nothing to do with anything else. We were literally at an ATH the day before the tariff talk began. Nothing about technicals. Nothing about valuations or fundamentals. Nothing about earnings. Only about one man's policies.
And please note. Artificial corrections like this normally resolve back to ATHs in a blink of an eye. We are just waiting for a few good tweets.
I don’t think this is artificial as Trump’s blunt force approach with tariffs and DOGE could cause a recession and even if Powell drops rates that will take 6-12 months to have a meaningful impact on economy. I would much prefer a spooked market due to political uncertainty, a Chinese flu, Ukraine, etc. all of which I would be buying the dips. But this is a self-inflicted wound if not purposeful and I have to believe a lot of supporters especially crypto bros are pissed.
Yeah this isn't just the egomaniac talking about tarrifs but he and others around him are saying (and have said) to expect pain.
And who's benefiting now, other than all the billionaires and oligarchs that bought their way into the govt?
Lesson 2. People on margin got crushed.
Doesn't make a difference where the market went if you had a margin call
That's all speculation (just like the impact of COVID, which wasn't much at all). As of now, there is precisely ZERO data showing a slowdown. Moreover, tariffs themselves are kind of BS. Trade only makes up 15% of the US GDP. The possible tariffs announced as of now only impact 4% of GDP. This is essentially fear and emotion hitting the markets. Not reality. Which means, buy dammit!
I heard they got a bailout by some rich African prince. (Coming to America reference in case everyone forgot)Good point, they never recovered.
Good point, they never recovered.
That is the sad reality of any of the longer market downturn. Recessions only help the rich get richer. Wealthy are the ones that have the financial prowess to withstand a recession without losing it all and can therefore bounce back a lot faster.
Haven’t heard that word in a while. Yea, I started reconsidering buying this early and waiting to see further developments. Sounds like more people believe Mag7 will do a reset.
Train-wreck is an understatement. He clearly wants to create a dictatorship with all of the power concentrated in the executive branch and with the rule-of-law essentially suspended and his foreign policy is to turn our backs on decades-long allies in support of fellow autocrats; let's hope the courts continue to hold and that Congress comes to its senses and wrests control of spending back from the executive branch. And economically, he's hell bent on turning a fairly strong economy inherited from the previous administration (with some cracks in the foundation, however), which avoided a recession with a soft landing, into a complete mess with his ridiculous tariffs (especially on the best neighbor anyone could have, in Canada), his brutal and overdone cuts to the government, and his plans to plunder the social safety net (which most still believe in) to fund his tax cuts for the rich and ultra-rich (selfishly cuts help me, but I prefer to think about the country first).
The market is already significantly overvalued (based on P/E ratios vs. historical markets) and markets can also be greatly affected by political turmoil and chaos, which we're seeing in spades - doesn't take much to reach a tipping point in public confidence that exacerbates any downturn or recession, especially given the inverted bond yield curve rearing its head again recently, indicating a likely recession (not a given, but a strong indicator). We'll see of course, but I'd bet we'll see the Dow hit 35K before it ever hits 45K again. That'll hurt many, some badly (although not as badly as people who lose good jobs), but be an opportunity for others. For retired folks like me, with more than enough invested very safely (very heavy in AAA bonds, treasuries and some blue chips), such that preservation is all we care about, we'll weather a major downturn better than most, short of Armageddon.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/fed...ssion-indicator-is-flashing-danger-again.html
Ugh lots of TDS now in here. I see some who hardly ever post in here posting about it. Funny I don’t remember them bashing biden when the market was doing poor under him. I guess it was (D)ifferent then.
Definitely some good buying opportunities out there. I’m looking to add to my AVGO & AMZN positions.
Definitely some good buying opportunities out there. I’m looking to add to my AVGO & AMZN positions.
Lots of talk on CNBC yesterday of this being a likely spot for a tactical bounce.
Tactical in that if there is a recession there is likely more downside. But until that us sorted out look for a bounce
Tactical in that if there is a recession there is likely more downside. But until that us sorted out look for a bounce
We know you like Trump. The majority of your posts on this board are pro trump. But as others pointed out the market was at an ATH when he announced tariffs and indiscriminately started to cut federal workers. His decisions had a direct impact on the drop in the market. That’s why they are being discussed here and now.
That's all speculation (just like the impact of COVID, which wasn't much at all). As of now, there is precisely ZERO data showing a slowdown. Moreover, tariffs themselves are kind of BS. Trade only makes up 15% of the US GDP. The possible tariffs announced as of now only impact 4% of GDP. This is essentially fear and emotion hitting the markets. Not reality. Which means, buy dammit!
I think over ONE MILLION Americans died because of Covid 19 (just like the impact of Covid, which wasn't much at all).
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Stay on topic. This is a thread about markets and the economy. Thanks!
Highest put to call ratio ever recorded with an ultra-high volume. Sounds like the c-word to me. What else are you looking for?
You are looking for an intraday hammer candlestick formation
That doesn’t always work but yes that can be a tell. Candlestick patterns are another useful tool at times.
Anything, be it a stock or the market as a whole, can get a counter trend bounce especially if it becomes oversold to extremely oversold. The question is whether it’s just a short term bounce before a resumption of the downtrend or something more sustainable.
I remember for the 2008 Great Recession, I was out of the market before the crash but after it recovered I started moving back into the market, a couple of months later there was a second crash. Hard to time but I’ll keep this in mind.
S&P down 10% ATH and NASQ down 14.4%
S&P down 10% ATH and NASQ down 14.4%
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Except it's basically Dem policies vs Republican policies.
Outside of President Musk and his fat buddy, most legislation is Party controlled.
Trump's interview with the Botox queen scared the crap out of Wall St.
So Harris would have been fine.
Do you have a source for the 15% data point?That's all speculation (just like the impact of COVID, which wasn't much at all). As of now, there is precisely ZERO data showing a slowdown. Moreover, tariffs themselves are kind of BS. Trade only makes up 15% of the US GDP. The possible tariffs announced as of now only impact 4% of GDP. This is essentially fear and emotion hitting the markets. Not reality. Which means, buy dammit!
The momentum stocks which were then down big were up nicely today. RDDT up 15% for instance.
Headline of The Economist when Biden was President in October, The Envy of the World:
Cover of the Economist this week: