I’ve always liked DECK…do they have a lot of China exposure and will tariffs plague them next few quarters?
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
I prefer CMG or CAVA even to SBUX just on future potential but valuations, especially for CAVA, are still a little rich for me. I was tempted to step in for a little CAVA in the low 70s but I didn't. CMG I'd prefer in the mid 30s-40s area but thinking about stepping in a little sooner. Still haven't though. CMG former CEO at SBUX now though so who knows he might get them going. MCD and DRI have been bucking any weaker consumer trend as of late, both not far off ATHs.
DIS is kind of range bound with 80s on the low end and 115-125ish on the high end. It's got a couple MAs providing both resistance and support but they both look like they're flattening out lately.
Big fan of their Hoka brand of trail runners, known as Speedgoats. Been wearing them while trekking 1900 miles so far on the Appalachian Trail (GA thru VT, with NH and ME remaining). Went through five pair, to date. Also wore them last summer on Scotland's West Highland Way. Very comfy hiking footwear. Will wear them this June in AK (Denali abd Kenai) and then later while back on the AT in NH.
SBUX is really a play on the CEO. He was a rockstar at CMG. And yes, CMG is on my watchlist as well. Almost bought when it dipped below $50.
Here's a fun play for risky-minded investors:
ALDX - Aldeyra Therapeutics
Microcap biotech. $300-400m market cap. PDUFA on April 2 for its lead compound (reproxalap). They were originally denied by the FDA and were asked to do another trial using a different primary endpoint. Since then, they signed a deal with Abbvie for $300m in milestone payments and 40% of commercial revenue (60% going to Abbvie who will sell the product). And more importantly, its new trial turned out to be a success. As such, the FDA accepted reproxalap's resubmission and assigned the PDUFA date mentioned above.
All signs point to an approval, but with the FDA, you never know. A few days ago I bought $7.5 April 17 calls hoping to catch a big pop. The stock is in the mid/upper $6's and will likely rally to double digits with a positive FDA decision. We shall see!
ALDX - Aldeyra Therapeutics
Microcap biotech. $300-400m market cap. PDUFA on April 2 for its lead compound (reproxalap). They were originally denied by the FDA and were asked to do another trial using a different primary endpoint. Since then, they signed a deal with Abbvie for $300m in milestone payments and 40% of commercial revenue (60% going to Abbvie who will sell the product). And more importantly, its new trial turned out to be a success. As such, the FDA accepted reproxalap's resubmission and assigned the PDUFA date mentioned above.
All signs point to an approval, but with the FDA, you never know. A few days ago I bought $7.5 April 17 calls hoping to catch a big pop. The stock is in the mid/upper $6's and will likely rally to double digits with a positive FDA decision. We shall see!
You're a biotech guy. A mountain top neighbor of mine is an exec with United Therapeutics, vp of Regenerative Medicine. Familiar with that company?Here's a fun play for risky-minded investors:
ALDX - Aldeyra Therapeutics
Microcap biotech. $300-400m market cap. PDUFA on April 2 for its lead compound (reproxalap). They were originally denied by the FDA and were asked to do another trial using a different primary endpoint. Since then, they signed a deal with Abbvie for $300m in milestone payments and 40% of commercial revenue (60% going to Abbvie who will sell the product). And more importantly, its new trial turned out to be a success. As such, the FDA accepted reproxalap's resubmission and assigned the PDUFA date mentioned above.
All signs point to an approval, but with the FDA, you never know. A few days ago I bought $7.5 April 17 calls hoping to catch a big pop. The stock is in the mid/upper $6's and will likely rally to double digits with a positive FDA decision. We shall see!
Yes, I am familiar with United. They were a competitor of mine while I was at Novartis (in the pulmonary hypertension market). Good company, but I think they were having a bunch of patent and generic issues (based on info from a few years ago which may have changed).
Not long after Nvidia said it expects to invest billions:
UAE commits to $1.4 trillion US investment, White House says
Alas Jensen let the cat out of the bag saying AI was 15 years away from being more useful
"Huang said in January that 15 years was “on the early side” when laying out when to expect quantum computing technology would be deemed useful, prompting a sell-off in the sector. An expectation of 20 years is considered more reasonable, the CEO had said."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/nvi...nies-but-a-sell-off-in-the-stocks-ensued.html
UAE commits to $1.4 trillion US investment, White House says
Alas Jensen let the cat out of the bag saying AI was 15 years away from being more useful
"Huang said in January that 15 years was “on the early side” when laying out when to expect quantum computing technology would be deemed useful, prompting a sell-off in the sector. An expectation of 20 years is considered more reasonable, the CEO had said."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/nvi...nies-but-a-sell-off-in-the-stocks-ensued.html
can't fund my current retirement with VIG. I can with SCHD. Plus, they don't necessarily attempt to accomplish the same thing. VYM might be a better comparison.
Yes you can. Just withdraw what you need each month. VIG total returns are greater than SCHD (including dividends).
Long term returns are virtually the same and I have no sequence of return risk to worry about. I will take my 3.8 percent yield that increases each year and not have to worry about selling a share. Retired early and I sleep well at night not worrying about how to pay bills. Different strokes for different folks.
Why are selling shares so scary? Don't settle for lower returns. Obviously, it's best to go with VOO or VTI than either dividend etf.
Coreweave IPO and subsequent price action will be interesting what with Deepseek watering down the NVDIA-adjacent punchbowl.
I believe he's in retirement. So likely no new monies being invested; just rebalancing. Key is low volatility. Less drawdown risk. Higher quality large caps are preferred. Less growth focus. More value oriented. No need to aim for bigger returns. Opting for wealth preservation and income. Clearly not for you, ok. But a near ideal element of a portfolio for the retiree, who may be weighted 60/40 or 50/50.
Two and half months actually. Set the low in early Jan. Which then provided support which it bounced off on 3 subsequent moves since. Actually putting in higher lows now.
$6 looked like a little mini resistance, which it broke past, and I guess ending the week above $6 holds even more credence. Next level of resistance looks to be $7.50ish.
A couple stock mentioned as buys on CNBC this week.
CVX, Brown bought it. Was Carter Worth's final trade today. Been basing for 3 years since the post covid run. $170-$180 remains the high water mark from a couple years back.
ABBV. Was on Brown's best stocks in the market list. 5 year chart looks great. It's all time chart looks really good as well. 12 years as a public company up about 7x. 3% div. Only one significant sustained draw down during it's history.
NEE. Think it was Link that bought some. 21x P/E. 3% div.
CVX, Brown bought it. Was Carter Worth's final trade today. Been basing for 3 years since the post covid run. $170-$180 remains the high water mark from a couple years back.
ABBV. Was on Brown's best stocks in the market list. 5 year chart looks great. It's all time chart looks really good as well. 12 years as a public company up about 7x. 3% div. Only one significant sustained draw down during it's history.
NEE. Think it was Link that bought some. 21x P/E. 3% div.
Couldn't have said it better. At this age, I am also risk aware and maintain a portfolio as close to the efficient frontier as possible.
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I sold CVX two month ago when the price of oil started dipping (15-18% profit). I assumed all the oil producers would suffer and overall they have not. Haven't lost anything with CVX since its close to where I sold. Probably a good idea to jump back in. I doubt it would rally too much, maybe approach $200? As such, leap calls would be a great play. That could double the rally return.
Still in SLB leap calls and Williams is in my custom stock basket.
(He's had a long history of posting about his uncanny investment "timing" after market runs and falls.)
Nope - that's what the media does.
AI is often being presented as some magic 8 ball that's going to cure cancer, win wars, make perfect government, find God etc.
Jensen was happy to ride the misinfo waves when they were floating Nvidia's boat
I've always said current AI is pattern recognition and nothing new as much as using beefed up Newtonian hardware.
AI was used to censor Twitter back in 2020.
Its also being set-up for spying and that's a reason people are cooling on the new iPhones in places like China that already have spying.
Most people - including investors - don't get AI and if thye did they would have bit so hard on Nvidia hype (Nvidia specialty).
The current "Quantum" chips from Google and Microsoft are just more smoke up the cheeks
Quantum Hype Machine going full steam:
Debate erupts around Microsoft’s blockbuster quantum computing claims
Physicists cast doubt on measurements validating Microsoft’s first quantum chip, Majorana 1
Google’s Quantum Boost Doesn’t Really Compute
Alphabet’s sagging stock has been primed for any good news, but quantum computing’s payoff is years away at best
Not even sure what point you are debating here.
We are in agreement that AI has been in existence for awhile. Everyone is aware of Watson.
The links you posted show great skepticism regarding quantum computing. "years away at best". Which is a paraphrase of Jensen "letting the cat out of the bag" as you say.
2 different things. Although at some point I guess AI could be powered by quantum computing. Still what Huang was talking about in your op was not AI.
Last night from Tom Lee:
Markets appear to be setting up for a potential face-ripper rally this week as recent developments have eased several of the major fears that have weighed on equities since December.
If we get a face ripper I’ll probably trim at the end of the week.
Edit: think im going to add to a couple of my small positions which have been crushed like LUNR and BBAI. Top of my board this morning.
Good idea on BBAI. Also rumors about Fannie and Freddie are bubbling up again. Possible exec order coming soon?
LUNR is the real ripper this morning. Made my move too late as it was up 20%. See if it comes back in
Lots of analysts are saying gold is bumping up against some serious resistance (temporarily). My GLD futures are expiring in a few days anyway, so I closed them early. Will jump into the May contracts soon (hopefully after a nice dip).
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A grenade and a nuke are both explosives.
Mechanical AI and Quantum AI are both artificial intelligence.
Many in tech, markets and gov. have been enthusiastically promoting mechanical AI as if it was the Quantum type.
The pro-AI people inflate it and the doomer-AI people fear it will nuke the world - both are hype.
A couple years back an EO went out directing all levels of gov and agencies to jump on AI
The media was full of AI and Apple and Google are putting it in their phones
Sam Altman and Larry Ellison were talking about curing cancer.
Jensen has been promoting the start of a whole new era in computing where AI will equal humans in 5 years (that was 2 years ago)
“We will see diseases get cured at an unprecedented rate. We will be amazed at how quickly we’re curing this cancer and that one — and heart disease,” added Altman, repeating that AI would “cure the diseases at a rapid, rapid rate.” - Altman
Things like above are why AI/Nvidia got overhyped.
Jensen polishes he edges a little more now with his specific quantum quotes
He doesn't want people to fall off the bandwagon and wants people to stay in the wagon on a longer trip
Thats the part about Jensen letting the cat out of the bag - he's walking back the revolutionary fervor he used to exude
I talk to normies about AI 90% and of them think AI is quantum NOW - those will be the suckers for Google, M$ etc
Those same people don't know Jensen doesn't drive a motorcycle (his wife gave him the jacket to look cool like Apple vs PC) .
There will be uses for Newtonian AI but only a few have made money with it (a credit card co I believe did well).
There wont be cures for cancer and individualized vaccines (Ellison) in a few years.
But take note that Jensen promotes AI tutors which are not human teachers but cyber functions that will embed into your data and life while acculturating people to cyber shadows that they will interface with the world while cloaked. The current data harvesting is bad but AI Harvesting along with AI networks in gov, business, health etc will bring serious problems.
I want some AI (people can run their own) for a rising industry I've been waiting decades for so I'm not all against it.
But I won be buying any phones packed with AI and AI "tutors" that track me, contacts, transactions etc.
When M$ says they will record and categorize my phone calls I know its not for my benefit.
With current AI we will be the product and Jensen will get us the chips to make sale possible
"I have a personal [artificial intelligence] tutor with me all of the time. And I think that feeling should be universal..that's a virtual tutor powered by AI, not a human who can teach you how to use AI more effectively. "If there's one thing I would encourage everybody to do, [it's] to go get yourself an AI tutor right away," said Huang, whose company makes computer chips"
Sold half my JNUG(2x jr gold miner etf). Been on a good run and way too big a position.
Holding a silver miner i own.
So we agree there is AI and then there is quantum computing.
Your concerns AI is tracking your actions is a different thing. And not one i disagree with on the personal level, but from an investment perspective I don’t think it’s a hindrance.
+1
I'm out of my March future contracts and the May ones aren't open yet. So, I can see how GLD does over the next few days. JNUG must have ripped the past month!
About 30% for the month. About 80% over 3 months.
But peaked at around these levels in the fall and still way off covid highs.