Toggle sidebar

OT: Stock and Investment Thread

D

DHajekRC84

New member
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,813
0
@T2Kplus10 (and any others) bouncing something off you for my situation. my "play account" .

half of it is in div producing and the other half all still has significant long term gains. I do not have much cash to invest...if at all since I want to maintain my On-line savings as buffer.

Here's my thought. Instead of taking the next $60k out of my 401k taxed at 22% I forgo that and instead take those gains now (so not increasing my tax base but actually lowering it). . Protect the downside and generate the cash to reinvest on the turn.

I don't need the 401k $ to live on... make sense?
 
R

Rutgers Chris

Well-known member
Nov 29, 2005
3,921
4,399
97
Holding Mel Gibson GIF


 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1, Caliknight and T2Kplus20
J

Joey Bags

New member
Sep 21, 2019
5,174
5,288
1
T2Kplus20 said:
I would probably start with the 2x etfs. SSO or QLD. Not down enough for a long trade with TQQQ or UPRO yet.
Click to expand...
Friendly PSA for those not familiar with ETF investing; the more leverage an ETF has, the shorter your investment strategy should be with the security as a result of Time Decay. Leveraged ETFs are not a buy and hold long-term play. If you invest in a commodity ETF tied to futures contracts you also have to contend with roll-yield which also shortens your time horizon.

When I was a lot less risk-averse I would have been having a field day this week with the volatility ETFs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU205, drewbagel423, rutgersguy1_rivals and 1 other person
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,776
17,739
113
DHajekRC84 said:
@T2Kplus10 (and any others) bouncing something off you for my situation. my "play account" .

half of it is in div producing and the other half all still has significant long term gains. I do not have much cash to invest...if at all since I want to maintain my On-line savings as buffer.

Here's my thought. Instead of taking the next $60k out of my 401k taxed at 22% I forgo that and instead take those gains now (so not increasing my tax base but actually lowering it). . Protect the downside and generate the cash to reinvest on the turn.

I don't need the 401k $ to live on... make sense?
Click to expand...
Tagging a few other people (also in retirement):
@rutgersdave
@ScarletNut
@RU in IM

Is your play account a taxable brokerage account? So you want to take those gains into of more from your 401k. Is that right?
 
S

ScarletNut

New member
Jul 27, 2001
5,417
4,106
0
DHajekRC84 said:
@T2Kplus10 (and any others) bouncing something off you for my situation. my "play account" .

half of it is in div producing and the other half all still has significant long term gains. I do not have much cash to invest...if at all since I want to maintain my On-line savings as buffer.

Here's my thought. Instead of taking the next $60k out of my 401k taxed at 22% I forgo that and instead take those gains now (so not increasing my tax base but actually lowering it). . Protect the downside and generate the cash to reinvest on the turn.

I don't need the 401k $ to live on... make sense?
Click to expand...
Not sure if this pertains to your situation but for the past 5 years I've been converting some IRA to a RothIRA. Now I know the lookback is 5 years before you can withdraw those converted funds but dividends and interest payments can be withdrawn tax-free. I've loaded the Roth with high yield dividend stocks (NHS, JEPQ, PDI, DIV, etc), giving off double digit distributions on a monthly basis. I now take those monthly distributions and have cut back on taxable distributions from my retirement funds. I'm now netting more income with less tax ramifications.
 
S

ScarletNut

New member
Jul 27, 2001
5,417
4,106
0
T2Kplus20 said:
Tagging a few other people (also in retirement):
@rutgersdave
@ScarletNut
@RU in IM

Is your play account a taxable brokerage account? So you want to take those gains into of more from your 401k. Is that right?
Click to expand...
I have 3 "play" accounts, taxable Schwab account (very small), a small RothIRA (not the one I commented on in a previous post) and my Coinbase account which I wouldn't consider a small account anymore.
 
D

DHajekRC84

New member
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,813
0
ScarletNut said:
Not sure if this pertains to your situation but for the past 5 years I've been converting some IRA to a RothIRA. Now I know the lookback is 5 years before you can withdraw those converted funds but dividends and interest payments can be withdrawn tax-free. I've loaded the Roth with high yield dividend stocks (NHS, JEPQ, PDI, DIV, etc), giving off double digit distributions on a monthly basis. I now take those monthly distributions and have cut back on taxable distributions from my retirement funds. I'm now netting more income with less tax ramifications.
Click to expand...
ABSOLUTELY. I have converted a bunch as well. And you were the guy who turned me onto NHS which I bought a good size position and keep churning the monthly divs back into it. Between our SS and the monthly DIVs ...we can live off that... but still taking the 401k now to reduce future RMDs and because of lower tax rate.

This was more about "should I take those profits from my broker account and offset gains/taxes by not taking my 401k quarterly withdrawel)

Thanks.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,776
17,739
113
DHajekRC84 said:
yes taxable. 15% Cap Gain vs. 22% on 401k.

Probably should have thought of this sooner when the gains were 2x lol.
Click to expand...
Got it. Makes a lot of sense to lower your taxes (always a good thing!). Timing your sales is always tricky. Will the market go lower? Will Trump send out a tweet announcing deals with a bunch of important countries. You never know.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine
M

mdk02

Well-known member
Aug 18, 2011
25,639
18,120
113
rutgersdave said:
US Data (2010):
    • The population of people aged 90 and older reached 1.9 million.
    • The 90-and-older population nearly tripled between 1980 and 2010.

    I got lucky, my parent had a couple of millions.
Click to expand...

1.9 million out of a population of what, 320 million? Also probably less than 3% of the total births during those years. I guess it depends on your definition of "a lot".
 
  • Like
Reactions: DHajekRC84
D

DHajekRC84

New member
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,813
0
T2Kplus20 said:
Got it. Makes a lot of sense to lower your taxes (always a good thing!). Timing your sales is always tricky. Will the market go lower? Will Trump send out a tweet announcing deals with a bunch of important countries. You never know.
Click to expand...
yep...that's the dilemma lol..that's the game.
I'm not talking about being out for long but just see this as a good way to get those gains and at lower overall taxes.. yes risk is there but the cash will be ready to move back in..
 
D

DHajekRC84

New member
Aug 9, 2001
30,709
19,813
0
mdk01 said:
1.9 million out of a population of what, 320 million? Also probably less than 3% of the total births during those years. I guess it depends on your definition of "a lot".
Click to expand...
not only that but what is the % of the aging population? as use baby boomers continue to pass through it will mean more total numbers but will the % increase?
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

New member
Dec 17, 2008
45,216
16,775
0
The safe haven sectors (staples, utilities, telcos, pharma) of yesterday not as green at the open as yesterday. Some green but quite a bit of red mixed in as well.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,776
17,739
113
rurahrah000 said:
This drawdown today has allowed me to take some losses and reshuffle my investments.
Click to expand...
Love to hear your thoughts on the reshuffling. I'm inclined to keep buying tech and other companies that were hit hard. Some positive news from the EU and Vietnam about being patient and negotiating.
 
R

rutgersdave

New member
Jan 23, 2004
43,396
13,987
0
T2Kplus20 said:
Tagging a few other people (also in retirement):
@rutgersdave
@ScarletNut
@RU in IM

Is your play account a taxable brokerage account? So you want to take those gains into of more from your 401k. Is that right?
Click to expand...
Yes, almost all my trades are in my IRA non taxable and some in my taxable accounts. However, I managed my mom account, 94 years old, which I’m the beneficiary and we had a boat load gain last year maybe $60-70k in her acct that I didn’t want to recognize but it was slowly disappearing in Jan- Feb so I sold half and pay the tax, netting some losses with the gains.i wanted to use the step up in cost when she passed away but the profit might not be there after this year. Time to buy in her account when the market goes down further.

Just brought BDX now at 52 week low.
 
Last edited:
R

rutgersdave

New member
Jan 23, 2004
43,396
13,987
0
What financial stocks should I buy? I brought some PRU and PNC. Thinking about GS and JPM at what level? Small increments and larger increments the next 15-25% drop.
 
D

drewbagel423

Well-known member
Oct 30, 2006
5,698
1,995
113
T2Kplus20 said:
Today's alert (text):

It was a brutal session for U.S. equities on Thursday as investors grappled with escalating tariff rhetoric and a dramatic opening gap in the S&P 500, which set a historical precedent.
  • The day began with President Trump posting to Truth Social, declaring, “The operation is over. The patient lived, and is healing… The patient will be far stronger, bigger, better, and more resilient than ever before.”
    – However, rather than reassuring markets, the post sparked heightened anxiety among investors.
    – The S&P 500 opened down 3%, marking the 7th largest opening gap in the past 40 years.
    – Throughout the session, administration officials such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro doubled down on the administration’s tough stance on tariffs, reinforcing fears that the trade war would intensify.
    – This persistent tone pressured equities throughout the day, ultimately leading the S&P 500 to close down 5%.
  • That magnitude of sell-off drew comparisons to the COVID shock of 2020, as clients voiced concerns about a rapidly unraveling market.
    – These fears stemmed largely from the unsustainably high level of tariffs being implemented, which many see as a direct threat to the broader U.S. economy.
    – The concern was not just the economic impact but the permanence of such policies.
  • However, there were signs of potential moderation later in the day.
    – Around 5 PM, President Trump signaled openness to negotiation during remarks before boarding Air Force One. Contrary to earlier reports, he acknowledged the possibility of striking tariff deals if countries “offer something phenomenal.”
    – On the flight, he reiterated this position, stating that “everyone’s calling us” and that the tariffs have positioned the U.S. as a dominant negotiator.
    – This shift — from intransigence to potential flexibility — suggests that the tariffs may be a tactical move rather than a permanent fixture, easing some of the day’s worst fears.
  • This softening stance had implications in global markets as well.
    – The countries most affected by the U.S. tariffs — namely those with the largest trade deficits — saw their respective ETFs outperform the U.S. benchmark.
    – Even Vietnam, which was hammered early in the day, ended up outperforming the S&P by 100 basis points. Notably, all 7 of these key trading partners have outperformed since February 18th, with Mexico showing the most pronounced recent strength.
  • Nations can do one of the following:
    – 1. Retaliate with “new measures”
    – 2. Do nothing and “live with new tariff rates”
    – 3. Negotiate
    – Retaliate: Counter-measures increase the US tariff rate
    – Most likely: Negotiate
    – Trump: “I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies”
    – Bessent: “My advice to everyone is do not retaliate… If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t retaliate, this is the high water mark.”
  • Further supporting a slightly less dire view was an estimate from Goldman Sachs indicating that, despite the noise, the effective tariff rate is closer to 12.6%, down modestly from prior projections due to exemptions.
    – While still significant, the data points to a more nuanced impact than the headline figures suggest.
  • Nonetheless, certain sectors bore the brunt of the market’s pain.
    – Home furnishings retailers plummeted nearly 20%, and consumer discretionary names — including electronics, apparel, footwear, leisure, and housewares — were broadly slammed.
    – Conversely, defensive sectors and niche industries like rubber-based tires held up better.
  • Encouragingly, some of the hardest-hit names from earlier in the year are now leading on the rebound, with TSLA -5.69% serving as a key example.
    – Meanwhile, volatility remains elevated as evidenced by the inverted VIX term structure, but falling inflation breakevens offer a silver lining.
  • Investors will be closely watching Friday’s job report and comments from Fed Chair Powell at 11:30 AM.
    – The market has already begun to price in a more dovish Fed, with rate cut expectations rising by nearly a full cut just today.
    – Importantly, Trump’s 4 PM pinned post on Truth Social — “The markets are going to boom” — underscores his political interest in propping up equities and reinforces the idea of a “Trump put” in play.
Bottom Line: Markets are absorbing a shock, but the signal from D.C. suggests tariffs may be more tactical than permanent.
Click to expand...
So much for those rate cuts Tom is predicting
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,776
17,739
113
rutgersdave said:
What financial stocks should I buy? I brought some PRU and PNC. Thinking about GS and JPM at what level? Small increments and larger increments the next 15-25% drop.
Click to expand...
Never hurts to go with the best in the sector - JPM and GS.
Tom Lee is also bullish on PRU.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom