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rutgersdave

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Jan 23, 2004
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vkj91 said:
lol. People said the the American people
Would never be able to retire again. And I guarantee I have more money in the market than 99.9999 of people in this thread
Click to expand...
There will be plenty of boomers that were planning to retire that will have to continue working. I have been retired for 16 years already and all my siblings have retire for over 10 years, none of us have any problems since we know how to save and invest. We’ve been planning our inheritances to the next generation.

Look at beaced thread on this board.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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vkj91 said:
everything with you is emotion. You aren’t a scientist. Scientists don’t wipe down groceries, they don’t wear cloth masks, they don’t fight to close schools, they don’t think covid came from bats, and they don’t post BS snow threads. Anyone with common sense and minimal science education knows this things are false. You aren’t a scientist. You are a Karen who worked for Pharma. Who watches Asian porn because he loves disc golf more than his wife.
Click to expand...
Dude take this **** out of here.
 
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rutgersdave

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Now, I brought PRU at $100 good dividend, some AMZN down 30%, and ETN down 32%. Will buy more META, GOOG both down 30%. However, expect the MAG 7 to go down 50% so have your real money ready.
 
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yessir321

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vkj91 said:
lol. People said the the American people
Would never be able to retire again. And I guarantee I have more money in the market than 99.9999 of people in this thread
Click to expand...
I guarentee that’s false.

You’re lack of proper grammar alone disproves this.

But hey, you can be whoever you want to on the internet with an anonymous username
 
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yessir321

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vkj91 said:
everything with you is emotion. You aren’t a scientist. Scientists don’t wipe down groceries, they don’t wear cloth masks, they don’t fight to close schools, they don’t think covid came from bats, and they don’t post BS snow threads. Anyone with common sense and minimal science education knows this things are false. You aren’t a scientist. You are a Karen who worked for Pharma. Who watches Asian porn because he loves disc golf more than his
Click to expand...
Someone’s triggered
 
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RUinPinehurst

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Joey Bags said:
Frankly the joke is on anyone who is planning on retiring now and is heavily exposed in the market. That is not how you should be allocated, personal finance 101.
Click to expand...
For those in or near retirement, if your assets are properly allocated and your withdrawal rate is 3% or 4%, you'll be ok. This current episode, albeit man-made, is yet another market speed bump.
 
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rutgersdave

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RU in IM said:
Going to be tough to time it right; if we have another day like yesterday, the average Joe who hasn’t yet checked their brokerage account or 401k will be in panic mode. There has been HUGE concentrations in the mag 7, and they are getting crushed. It’s okay for the people who have had them in portfolio for the last 2 years, but the Jonny come lately’s, and there are many, could panic.

I might buy some of the QQQ and S&P, and a few beaten down stocks, but not risking too much of my cash hoard
Click to expand...
I sold the MAG7 and then started buying smaller quantities when they went down 15%, 25% and now 30%. I read that they went down 50% in 2022.

Someone earlier questioned why I brought CD’s 3-6 months. This prevent me from jumping in with huge buys into the market too early.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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RU in IM said:
Going to be tough to time it right; if we have another day like yesterday, the average Joe who hasn’t yet checked their brokerage account or 401k will be in panic mode. There has been HUGE concentrations in the mag 7, and they are getting crushed. It’s okay for the people who have had them in portfolio for the last 2 years, but the Jonny come lately’s, and there are many, could panic.

I might buy some of the QQQ and S&P, and a few beaten down stocks, but not risking too much of my cash hoard
Click to expand...
I would probably start with the 2x etfs. SSO or QLD. Not down enough for a long trade with TQQQ or UPRO yet.
 
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RU in IM

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Nov 3, 2011
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rutgersdave said:
I sold the MAG7 and then started buying smaller quantities when they went down 15%, 25% and now 30%. I read that they went down 50% in 2022.

Someone earlier questioned why I brought CD’s 3-6 months. This prevent me from jumping in with huge buys into the market too early.
Click to expand...
Most of my cash was moved to CD’s as well. I lowered my exposure in the market just before I retired in 2022. Since then, all of my gains, have been moved to CD and HYS to keep my equity exposure consistent. I do, however, keep enough in cash to increase my exposer back to my target during any material drops.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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RU in IM said:
Where is Tom Lee when you need him? 😉
Click to expand...
Today's alert (text):

It was a brutal session for U.S. equities on Thursday as investors grappled with escalating tariff rhetoric and a dramatic opening gap in the S&P 500, which set a historical precedent.
  • The day began with President Trump posting to Truth Social, declaring, “The operation is over. The patient lived, and is healing… The patient will be far stronger, bigger, better, and more resilient than ever before.”
    – However, rather than reassuring markets, the post sparked heightened anxiety among investors.
    – The S&P 500 opened down 3%, marking the 7th largest opening gap in the past 40 years.
    – Throughout the session, administration officials such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro doubled down on the administration’s tough stance on tariffs, reinforcing fears that the trade war would intensify.
    – This persistent tone pressured equities throughout the day, ultimately leading the S&P 500 to close down 5%.
  • That magnitude of sell-off drew comparisons to the COVID shock of 2020, as clients voiced concerns about a rapidly unraveling market.
    – These fears stemmed largely from the unsustainably high level of tariffs being implemented, which many see as a direct threat to the broader U.S. economy.
    – The concern was not just the economic impact but the permanence of such policies.
  • However, there were signs of potential moderation later in the day.
    – Around 5 PM, President Trump signaled openness to negotiation during remarks before boarding Air Force One. Contrary to earlier reports, he acknowledged the possibility of striking tariff deals if countries “offer something phenomenal.”
    – On the flight, he reiterated this position, stating that “everyone’s calling us” and that the tariffs have positioned the U.S. as a dominant negotiator.
    – This shift — from intransigence to potential flexibility — suggests that the tariffs may be a tactical move rather than a permanent fixture, easing some of the day’s worst fears.
  • This softening stance had implications in global markets as well.
    – The countries most affected by the U.S. tariffs — namely those with the largest trade deficits — saw their respective ETFs outperform the U.S. benchmark.
    – Even Vietnam, which was hammered early in the day, ended up outperforming the S&P by 100 basis points. Notably, all 7 of these key trading partners have outperformed since February 18th, with Mexico showing the most pronounced recent strength.
  • Nations can do one of the following:
    – 1. Retaliate with “new measures”
    – 2. Do nothing and “live with new tariff rates”
    – 3. Negotiate
    – Retaliate: Counter-measures increase the US tariff rate
    – Most likely: Negotiate
    – Trump: “I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies”
    – Bessent: “My advice to everyone is do not retaliate… If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t retaliate, this is the high water mark.”
  • Further supporting a slightly less dire view was an estimate from Goldman Sachs indicating that, despite the noise, the effective tariff rate is closer to 12.6%, down modestly from prior projections due to exemptions.
    – While still significant, the data points to a more nuanced impact than the headline figures suggest.
  • Nonetheless, certain sectors bore the brunt of the market’s pain.
    – Home furnishings retailers plummeted nearly 20%, and consumer discretionary names — including electronics, apparel, footwear, leisure, and housewares — were broadly slammed.
    – Conversely, defensive sectors and niche industries like rubber-based tires held up better.
  • Encouragingly, some of the hardest-hit names from earlier in the year are now leading on the rebound, with TSLA -5.69% serving as a key example.
    – Meanwhile, volatility remains elevated as evidenced by the inverted VIX term structure, but falling inflation breakevens offer a silver lining.
  • Investors will be closely watching Friday’s job report and comments from Fed Chair Powell at 11:30 AM.
    – The market has already begun to price in a more dovish Fed, with rate cut expectations rising by nearly a full cut just today.
    – Importantly, Trump’s 4 PM pinned post on Truth Social — “The markets are going to boom” — underscores his political interest in propping up equities and reinforces the idea of a “Trump put” in play.
Bottom Line: Markets are absorbing a shock, but the signal from D.C. suggests tariffs may be more tactical than permanent.
 
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rutgersdave

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Jan 23, 2004
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T2Kplus20 said:
Today's alert (text):

It was a brutal session for U.S. equities on Thursday as investors grappled with escalating tariff rhetoric and a dramatic opening gap in the S&P 500, which set a historical precedent.
  • The day began with President Trump posting to Truth Social, declaring, “The operation is over. The patient lived, and is healing… The patient will be far stronger, bigger, better, and more resilient than ever before.”
    – However, rather than reassuring markets, the post sparked heightened anxiety among investors.
    – The S&P 500 opened down 3%, marking the 7th largest opening gap in the past 40 years.
    – Throughout the session, administration officials such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro doubled down on the administration’s tough stance on tariffs, reinforcing fears that the trade war would intensify.
    – This persistent tone pressured equities throughout the day, ultimately leading the S&P 500 to close down 5%.
  • That magnitude of sell-off drew comparisons to the COVID shock of 2020, as clients voiced concerns about a rapidly unraveling market.
    – These fears stemmed largely from the unsustainably high level of tariffs being implemented, which many see as a direct threat to the broader U.S. economy.
    – The concern was not just the economic impact but the permanence of such policies.
  • However, there were signs of potential moderation later in the day.
    – Around 5 PM, President Trump signaled openness to negotiation during remarks before boarding Air Force One. Contrary to earlier reports, he acknowledged the possibility of striking tariff deals if countries “offer something phenomenal.”
    – On the flight, he reiterated this position, stating that “everyone’s calling us” and that the tariffs have positioned the U.S. as a dominant negotiator.
    – This shift — from intransigence to potential flexibility — suggests that the tariffs may be a tactical move rather than a permanent fixture, easing some of the day’s worst fears.
  • This softening stance had implications in global markets as well.
    – The countries most affected by the U.S. tariffs — namely those with the largest trade deficits — saw their respective ETFs outperform the U.S. benchmark.
    – Even Vietnam, which was hammered early in the day, ended up outperforming the S&P by 100 basis points. Notably, all 7 of these key trading partners have outperformed since February 18th, with Mexico showing the most pronounced recent strength.
  • Nations can do one of the following:
    – 1. Retaliate with “new measures”
    – 2. Do nothing and “live with new tariff rates”
    – 3. Negotiate
    – Retaliate: Counter-measures increase the US tariff rate
    – Most likely: Negotiate
    – Trump: “I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies”
    – Bessent: “My advice to everyone is do not retaliate… If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t retaliate, this is the high water mark.”
  • Further supporting a slightly less dire view was an estimate from Goldman Sachs indicating that, despite the noise, the effective tariff rate is closer to 12.6%, down modestly from prior projections due to exemptions.
    – While still significant, the data points to a more nuanced impact than the headline figures suggest.
  • Nonetheless, certain sectors bore the brunt of the market’s pain.
    – Home furnishings retailers plummeted nearly 20%, and consumer discretionary names — including electronics, apparel, footwear, leisure, and housewares — were broadly slammed.
    – Conversely, defensive sectors and niche industries like rubber-based tires held up better.
  • Encouragingly, some of the hardest-hit names from earlier in the year are now leading on the rebound, with TSLA -5.69% serving as a key example.
    – Meanwhile, volatility remains elevated as evidenced by the inverted VIX term structure, but falling inflation breakevens offer a silver lining.
  • Investors will be closely watching Friday’s job report and comments from Fed Chair Powell at 11:30 AM.
    – The market has already begun to price in a more dovish Fed, with rate cut expectations rising by nearly a full cut just today.
    – Importantly, Trump’s 4 PM pinned post on Truth Social — “The markets are going to boom” — underscores his political interest in propping up equities and reinforces the idea of a “Trump put” in play.
Bottom Line: Markets are absorbing a shock, but the signal from D.C. suggests tariffs may be more tactical than permanent.
Click to expand...
Canada and China are retaliating. We think China cares that their people are hurt, maybe more than Russia who doesn’t care if they die. Now, the US doesn’t care about the effect on the lower middle class. We’ll find out who willing to punish their people more. Trump is catching up to them fast with his cuts to the budget and now the tariffs.
 
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M

mdk02

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Aug 18, 2011
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rutgersdave said:
Plenty of people live to 99 both my parents live till 97, and left a nice inheritance to all their 5 kids.
Click to expand...

Plenty???? My parents lived until their mid-late 80's and were comfortable. No financial help needed from their children. Tack 10-12 years onto that, especially if there are assisted living facilities for a number of years, that might not have been the case.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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rutgersdave said:
Canada and China are retaliating. We think China cares that their people are hurt, maybe more than Russia who doesn’t care if they die. Now, the US doesn’t care about the effect on the lower middle class. We’ll find out who willing to punish their people more. Trump is catching up to them fast with his cuts to the budget and now the tariffs.
Click to expand...
Canada is negotiating.
 
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rutgersguy1_rivals

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rutgersdave said:
Now, I brought PRU at $100 good dividend, some AMZN down 30%, and ETN down 32%. Will buy more META, GOOG both down 30%. However, expect the MAG 7 to go down 50% so have your real money ready.
Click to expand...
Last big tech crash I started buying META down 30% and thought I had a nice cushion but it went down way more than that and I had to keep buying/accumulating through a massive fall. Others weren't as bad. Point being what you think might be a nice cushion might not be as much as you think when it comes to tech, even the big names.

EU might target big tech in retaliation. I read big tech has like a 700B trade surplus with the rest of the world. Is that sort of response price in yet or still getting priced in?
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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rutgersdave said:
Trump will cave and claim victory.
Click to expand...
Fine with me. My priority is the market going up. I don't care about win/lose or globalization vs. nationalism. Make my number go up! :)

In other news, pretty good payroll data today. About 220,000 new jobs. For all the fear about an upcoming recession, there is absolutely no evidence or data of economic deterioration.
 
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rutgersdave

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mdk01 said:
Plenty???? My parents lived until their mid-late 80's and were comfortable. No financial help needed from their children. Tack 10-12 years onto that, especially if there are assisted living facilities for a number of years, that might not have been the case.
Click to expand...
US Data (2010):
    • The population of people aged 90 and older reached 1.9 million.
    • The 90-and-older population nearly tripled between 1980 and 2010.

    I got lucky, my parent had a couple of millions.
 
Caliknight

Caliknight

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Sep 21, 2001
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Canada talking tough is like a guy in to rob a store with a water gun. They have no cards.

How’s their stock market doing lol?
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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rutgersguy1 said:
Last big tech crash I started buying META down 30% and thought I had a nice cushion but it went down way more than that and I had to keep buying/accumulating through a massive fall. Others weren't as bad. Point being what you think might be a nice cushion might not be as much as you think when it comes to tech, even the big names.

EU might target big tech in retaliation. I read big tech has like a 700B trade surplus with the rest of the world. Is that sort of response price in yet or still getting priced in?
Click to expand...
Great thing about big tech is that you don't need to catch the bottom or even that close to make a good purchase/trade. They lead the way down, but also lead the way up.
 
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rutgersdave

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rutgersguy1 said:
Last big tech crash I started buying META down 30% and thought I had a nice cushion but it went down way more than that and I had to keep buying/accumulating through a massive fall. Others weren't as bad. Point being what you think might be a nice cushion might not be as much as you think when it comes to tech, even the big names.

EU might target big tech in retaliation. I read big tech has like a 700B trade surplus with the rest of the world. Is that sort of response price in yet or still getting priced in?
Click to expand...
That’s why I brought up the 50% down but then you got to wait a couple of years worse case scenario. I’ll wait as long as I need but still waiting for 40 or 50% down for more purchases. I don’t need to use any of my assets and it’s basically for the next generation.
 
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rutgersguy1_rivals

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T2Kplus20 said:
Great thing about big tech is that you don't need to catch the bottom or even that close to make a good purchase/trade. They lead the way down, but also lead the way up.
Click to expand...
It's hard to catch the bottom of anything tech or otherwise unless you're lucky. Point is better be ready both psychologically and wherewithal wise to handle a much deeper than expected fall for a particular stock or the market as a whole as well.
 
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T2Kplus20

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rutgersguy1 said:
It's hard to catch the bottom of anything tech or otherwise unless you're lucky. Point is better be ready both psychologically and wherewithal wise to handle a much deeper than expected fall for a particular stock or the market as a whole as well.
Click to expand...
+1
I learned that in 2022! :)
 
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ScarletNut

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T2Kplus20 said:
Fine with me. My priority is the market going up. I don't care about win/lose or globalization vs. nationalism. Make my number go up! :)

In other news, pretty good payroll data today. About 220,000 new jobs. For all the fear about an upcoming recession, there is absolutely no evidence or data of economic deterioration.
Click to expand...
I was hoping for a lower jobs number so rates could be cut.
 
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