OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Or SOXL calls. I had a small stake in SOXL that is up ~80%. Probably take my profit by Friday. With Trump running things the way he has been running, it will be hard to not stay mostly invested. I will have to stay nimble enough to take profit and losses more often than I like.You would be bigger.....if you bought those TQQQ calls.
Canada bac in the fold.
Canada spectacularly bends knee to U.S. as Trump scores major victory
Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney has backed down on his end of the trade war and agreed to negotiate 'immediately' on a new agreement in a victory for Donald Trump.Sure maybe. I guess I’ll leave it to each person to make up their mind on that.
+1
Great move with SOXL calls. I've been trading GLD futures on Coinbase for the past 2 months. First time ever really trading and GLD has cooperated very nicely. Plenty of ups and downs. Taking profit and being safe. Up $32k as of now, which is a large amount relative to my modest Coinbase account. I did recently learn that futures are taxed at the 60/40 principle, which was a nice surprise.
We don’t have any deals finalized yet. My point here isn’t that we shouldn’t use tariffs or we shouldn’t try to renegotiate trade agreements…I’m not opining on that.
A hardline regime of tariffs was announced a few days ago, it caused a lot of equity volatility, then rates started to go higher, then we scaled back the tariffs before any deals were struck.
If you’re saying it was just a generous act of good faith, that could be so. My suspicion leans more towards the wide net of high tariffs being unsustainable policy that risked breaking something soon if not paused.
Or maybe you think it was both: we’re being nice and we’re avoiding economic risk. Well what kind of leverage do you have with a counterparty when the alternative to a deal is a policy you yourself can’t stomach?
We’ll get some deals, they’ll be announced as the greatest deals ever, and I guess we’ll see over time if this all amounts to something better for America.
Bill Ackman is terrified that Trump will hold the last few days’ comments against him.
Given our back and forth last night, here's an interesting analysis of what's been going on in the bond market, between hedge fund basis exposures leading to Treasury sales and foreign holders of Treasuries selling them off, such that bond yields went up while stocks went down, which almost never happens - and this, unfortunately brings into question whether US treasuries are still the safe haven they've always been. This is what spooked everyone.
https://www.morningstar.com/markets...ff-trade-war-calls-haven-status-into-question
And interesting blow-by-blow account of how this all unfolded since last night, confirming that the bond market weakness was likely what truly led to Trump blinking, after being pushed hard by R senators, CEOs (especially Dimon from JP Morgan), and Bessent/Lutnick (and Musk even though he wasn't visible - he made his feelings clear last night by calling Navarro a moron) who were there as Trump drafted the message pausing the reciprocal tariffs - with Navarro nowhere to be found. Better late than never, I guess.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-pause-decision/
You have no idea how galling it was for me to have to host and educate the chemical process tech leadership from WuXi (Chinese outsourcer) back in the early 2000s, when I ran our small/medium scale pilot plant where we used to do multi-step chemical syntheses of active ingredients for all of our R&D pipeline candidates that were in late stage development (when many kilos were needed for drug product development and clinical trials). I knew we were positioning them as a cheaper outsourcing partner to eventually replace much of what we were doing and within about 7-8 years, 75% of the chemical synthesis steps had been outsourced to them and our headcount went down a bit (not too much, though, since we still did some synthesis work and ended up spending a lot of time overseeing and correcting WuXi's work and that of other outsourcers).
By the late 2010s a number of GMP/quality scandals hit some of our suppliers in China and India and all of a sudden senior management said we had to have dual-sourced supply chains with one source allowed in Asia, but one had to be in the US or EU to reduce risk, which was less efficient, but at least less risky and brought some work back to the US. We're still in that situation according to friends I used to work with. Pharma active ingredient/drug product development and production is also an area I'd be happy to see out of low cost areas like China/India. And typically, the cost of production of any pharmaceutical is dwarfed by the cost of running the clinical trials prior to approval and manufacturing costs after that are usually dwarfed by advertising/sales costs.
I'm not even clicking it, but sure. All sorts of interloper CE garbage in here of late.
I was eyeing them, would have caught a double on the Jan $65 strikes, and maybe I would have bought them this morning if I wasn't fighting tooth and nail with Turbotax while doing my taxes. And interestingly my 1099-B from Morgan Stanley was at the heart of the problem. SVIX from the Japanese selloff last August.You would be bigger.....if you bought those TQQQ calls.
Down to Earth is not who we use. They are a huge company about 2 miles from me. They have a huge property. Their site looks amazing. The owner grew up in my hometown and was friends with my brother. Very nice guy.
The least you can do is offer someone working in heat something to drink. If my wife is not home when they come I know I better get my *** outside to get them something or she will let me know about it later.
Now with the ring she sees if I do it or not.
Mulch is always the killer. I paid over 5,000 for mulch last year.
That’s too bad regarding TurboTax. Some specific with SVIX?
We’ve used the deluxe version for years and it’s been great for E-Trade and Fidelity. Even though we don’t do much selling with the former. It’s awesome with Fidelity and even identifies my RSUs and exercised options and automatically zeros them out since they also hit as income.
What did Nancy Pelosi do yesterday? That would be the best way to find out if this was a "coincidence" or not
Super positive! Cut, cut, cut!
CPI comes in cooler than expected in March, before tariff turmoil heats up
Consumer Price Index: -0.1% M/M vs. +0.1% consensus and +0.2% prior, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.
+2.4% Y/Y vs. +2.6% consensus and +2.8% prior.
Core CPI: +0.1% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior.
+2.8% Y/Y vs. +3.0% consensus and +3.1% prior.
It was categorized oddly, neither short term nor long term, and for whatever reason didn't include a cost basis, nor date purchased.
There was also a portion of my transactions which didn't import correctly and the first group of people I spoke to didn't know how to rectify it.
Took me all day, I was quite frustrated.
It was a great number!Super positive! Cut, cut, cut!
CPI comes in cooler than expected in March, before tariff turmoil heats up
Consumer Price Index: -0.1% M/M vs. +0.1% consensus and +0.2% prior, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.
+2.4% Y/Y vs. +2.6% consensus and +2.8% prior.
Core CPI: +0.1% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior.
+2.8% Y/Y vs. +3.0% consensus and +3.1% prior.
Th
This is about right. I put down 10 cubic yards of mulch each spring and I wanna say last years cost was approx $1200.
Yeah, I guess you needed to manually put in the cost basis. Pain in the butt. We owned the Feds $28K this year. LOL! Got a ton of equity and Fidelity only withholds at 22%. I knew about the deficit, but F the gov'ment. Left the money in Fidelity for an entire year earning 4-5%.
lol, congrats on finding the most biased source you could on this - it's almost as if you wrote the incredibly inaccurate headline, which completely mischaracterizes the story within. Here's Carney's complete post on X, where it doesn't look at all like Carney is bending anything. Nice try though.
You should have filed an extension. Keep that money earning.
So how long before a China deal is announced? I imagine that's next big rip event.
assuming that is both for the mulch and for spreading/edging? Ours used to be $100 for that but of course prices have gone up so that's right there I would guess. (we're getting ours for the $100 again but that is because they owe us for a screw up from last year).
Or start selling the treasuries they already own. Either scenarios is a huge hit to rates and our economy.
Would make sense to use that as a negotiating tactic.
But rates would go up.
Edit: have we concluded that this is not what happened in the overnight into yesterday?
good move. NJ will hit you with a withholding penalty though as I am sure you know.
NJ withholds equity comp at the highest rate, so actually got a refund back from the state. Helped offset the Feds a little bit.
Positive report, showing again that the economy was in pretty good shape before the tariff wars started. Market futures down 1-2+%, but volatile as usual now and they haven't budged after the CPI report, since that report is now meaningless in the face of the inflationary future we face with 10%+ tariffs worldwide in place. But who knows what new news could come out today to roil the markets in one direction or another.Super positive! Cut, cut, cut!
CPI comes in cooler than expected in March, before tariff turmoil heats up
Consumer Price Index: -0.1% M/M vs. +0.1% consensus and +0.2% prior, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.
+2.4% Y/Y vs. +2.6% consensus and +2.8% prior.
Core CPI: +0.1% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior.
+2.8% Y/Y vs. +3.0% consensus and +3.1% prior.
https://www.marketwatch.com/