OT: Stock and Investment Thread

wheezer

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No one person should ever have this much control of the market. Don't celebrate too soon.
Controlling the stock market is a byproduct of the presidential control of tariffs

You could argue that control

When this is all over, tariffs settled in for each country, we will be better off as a country

The stock market will see to that also

All this up and down in the market is stressful for those fully invested, but as an investor since the 70s , know it goes with the territory
 

DHajekRC84

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NJ withholds equity comp at the highest rate, so actually got a refund back from the state. Helped offset the Feds a little bit.
cool. Couple of years in a row I took large EOY distributions and they dinged my with a timing penalty on my pre-pays. I had to go and show them the exact late t=year withdrawal and got the $ back.
 

DHajekRC84

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Positive report, showing again that the economy was in pretty good shape before the tariff wars started. Market futures down 1-2+%, but volatile as usual now and they haven't budged after the CPI report, since that report is now meaningless in the face of the inflationary future we face with 10%+ tariffs worldwide in place. But who knows what new news could come out today to roil the markets in one direction or another.

https://www.marketwatch.com/
our economy is STILL in good shape.
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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Jan 12, 2015
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lol, congrats on finding the most biased source you could on this - it's almost as if you wrote the incredibly inaccurate headline, which completely mischaracterizes the story within. Here's Carney's complete post on X, where it doesn't look at all like Carney is bending anything. Nice try though.


lol, congrats again on being too obtuse and/or lazy to read through political rhetoric. Last month Carney said “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation is over". In that tweet he now says "Canada must also continue to deepen its relationships with trading partners that share our values, including the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas." You think that doesn't mean the U.S. lol?
 
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Joey Bags

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So how long before a China deal is announced? I imagine that's next big rip event.
All depends if the administration’s goal is a forced divestiture from China or simply negotiating better trade terms. My assumption is the former, so I’m not sure we’ll be seeing some sweeping deal with China even if they want to come to the table.
 

RU05

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Looks like the heavy trimming yesterday was a good step 1.

Now the tricky part, when to jump back in.
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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Positive report, showing again that the economy was in pretty good shape before the tariff wars started. Market futures down 1-2+%, but volatile as usual now and they haven't budged after the CPI report, since that report is now meaningless in the face of the inflationary future we face with 10%+ tariffs worldwide in place. But who knows what new news could come out today to roil the markets in one direction or another.

https://www.marketwatch.com/
I'm old enough to remember you claiming inflation hit a 6month high since Trump took office lol.

RU848789 said:
And when one of your biggest promises is to lower prices on Day One and inflation hits a 6 month high soon after that, what message does that send? Also, while INCOME taxes may decrease a bit for the middle class (vs. far far larger tax cuts for billionaires), these will likely be swamped by the TARIFF taxes that are coming, as experts estimate that the average household will see an in increase of $3800/year due to these tariff-taxes.
 

RU05

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All depends if the administration’s goal is a forced divestiture from China or simply negotiating better trade terms. My assumption is the former, so I’m not sure we’ll be seeing some sweeping deal with China even if they want to come to the table.
But do you expect full divestiture? I'm doubting that. No need to fully cut China out of the mix. Just better balance.
 

drewbagel423

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Oct 30, 2006
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lol, congrats again on being too obtuse and/or lazy to read through political rhetoric. Last month Carney said “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation is over". In that tweet he now says "Canada must also continue to deepen its relationships with trading partners that share our values, including the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas." You think that doesn't mean the U.S. lol?
That sounds exactly what he means. The first part he's basically saying all the cooperation and integration we had was over.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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I'm old enough to remember you claiming inflation hit a 6month high since Trump took office lol.

RU848789 said:
And when one of your biggest promises is to lower prices on Day One and inflation hits a 6 month high soon after that, what message does that send? Also, while INCOME taxes may decrease a bit for the middle class (vs. far far larger tax cuts for billionaires), these will likely be swamped by the TARIFF taxes that are coming, as experts estimate that the average household will see an in increase of $3800/year due to these tariff-taxes.
It did, although inflation has generally been headed in the right direction since mid-2022, but that's not the issue - the issue is the likely inflationary pressures we're going to see even with the 90 day pause in the worst tariff rates. "Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, estimates the yearly rate of U.S. inflation could climb again to as high as 4% if all the tariffs are kept in place."
 
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BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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It did, although inflation has generally been headed in the right direction since mid-2022, but that's not the issue - the issue is the likely inflationary pressures we're going to see even with the 90 day pause in the worst tariff rates. "Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, estimates the yearly rate of U.S. inflation could climb again to as high as 4% if all the tariffs are kept in place."
What did what?

Inflationary pressure had to come off from 9.1% in '22 as Fed raised rates. You realize prices haven't declined, right? So-called tariff inflation is very nuanced, this has been discussed many times already.
 

RU848789

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It was over...but now it's not over ok...

Carney wants to negotiate immediately even though Canada wasn't part of the reciprocal tariff regime.
Not quite - it's immediately following the election on 4/28, as per the tweet from Carney I shared above: "As President Trump and I have agreed, the U.S. President and the Canadian Prime Minister will commence negotiations on a new economic and security relationship immediately following the Federal election."
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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Not quite - it's immediately following the election on 4/28, as per the tweet from Carney I shared above: "As President Trump and I have agreed, the U.S. President and the Canadian Prime Minister will commence negotiations on a new economic and security relationship immediately following the Federal election."
You don't think lower level talks are starting immediately?
 
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xWVU2010x

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our economy is STILL in good shape.
All of this is a testament to how strong the US economy is and where we stand in the world order. Biden was unquestionably asleep at the wheel and a corpse at the helm drove us to ATHs and record low unemployment… There is no need to dramatically rock the boat, as we are seeing any threats to do so are dramatically pointing down, and rescinding said threats dramatically moves us upward but not as high as before. The whole thing will be a net negative but possibly not catastrophic.
 
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xWVU2010x

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The stuff I’m reading about Trump on CNBC is absolutely crazy. The bottom is not in yet
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/tru...didnt-want-a-depression-according-to-wsj.html

Confirming what I’ve already known. Just pulling levers, no idea of the downstream consequences other than gut instinct and his own reasons. When faced with the idea of being the guy who singlehandedly wrecked the world’s strongest economy he capitulated and spins as a “win” like we’re so lucky to only be 7-9% off ATHs.
 

T2Kplus20

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-4.7% Nasdaq.

Edit: -5.2%. S&P -4.4%

Sell the rip is certainly in play. I should have sold more.
The Daq was up 12% yesterday. What did everyone expect today? China is still a big negative, but it's clear that Bessent is now leading negotiations with other nations. Hopefully deals will start being announced in the near future and we will have a nice flow of good news. Also saw the House approved the Senate's work plan for Trump's tax cuts and other policies. We should have cuts and dereg getting back into the daily news cycle soon. Another positive for markets.
 
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RU05

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The Daq was up 12% yesterday. What did everyone expect today? China is still a big negative, but it's clear that Bessent is now leading negotiations with other nations. Hopefully deals will start being announced in the near future and we will have a nice flow of good news. Also saw the House approved the Senate's work plan for Trump's tax cuts and other policies. We should have cuts and dereg getting back into the daily news cycle soon. Another positive for markets.
Maybe some follow through? Maybe down 1-2%.

It's down near 7% today. That's a lousy day.........though I'd say also a buying opportunity, whether you are looking at a short term trade(maybe), or a long term investment(eventually).
 

RU05

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A really good Halftime discussion today led by Brown and Link.

Brown was sounding super bearish on Tuesday night talking about bear market rallies after that days rallied fizzled. I thought maybe yesterday would leave him with egg on his face, but today is very much backing up the bear market rally/sell the rip narratives.