OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
2000, 2008/2009, and 2022 were economic or market drops (i.e., normal). COVID 2020 and tariffs from 2018 and 2025 are an example of artificial drops that are resolved once the catalyst is resolved.
IMO when it becomes obvious that the problem cannot be undone by a tweet, and the person who would need to tweet goes a prolonged amount of time without undoing their artificial problem they caused.
I think a realistic barometer of us being truly unable to undo the damage in a quick way would be if unemployment goes over 10%, combined with inflation back to Covid levels.
What you refer to as artificial or temporary is seeming firmer and more permanent by the day. Tariffs, inflation, massive layoffs in government sector (like it or not, an important part of the US economy), gutting scientific research, reduced foreign spending (tourists, students paying full tuitions, and purchases of US debt/stocks) spells long-term troubles. But I think what will weigh even heavier is the uncertainty around the economy. I’m glad you’re still bullish - we all need to have some optimism in the markets.
As for me personally, I’m not panic-selling anything and will continue to DCA into the market. If f I’m in my 20s or 30s, I’d be happier - IRA/401k purchases are cheaper. But for those of us in (or god forbid nearing) retirement, the Trump-induced slump is worrying.
10% unemployment? I think if we get six or seven percent - combined with the inflation - will cause serious unrest.
It’s all arbitrary, but I feel like that’s when we’re looking at a probable multi year catastrophe that can’t just be undone by a tweet that says “(insert country X Y and Z) has agreed to terms and effective immediately all Liberation Day tariffs will be dropped, we are now officially great again!”
If he did that today the Dow rips 3k points, America resumes normal economic activities, we hit a new ATH before EOY and after a week all of the calls for US boycotts abroad fade as the news cycle turns. If he did that in 3 months we probably still have a similar outcome. But if he waits too long the “cards” we currently have won’t be there to play.
Agreed. The longer he waits, the more damage is done.
In other news, started a small position with MRVL today ($49.4). Eyeing CYBR, CVX, and UNH as well. I also plan to add contracts to my SLB 2027 leap calls. Also added to my E-Trade account today and bought across the board (5 ETFs).
As a 67 year old my stock funds basically consist of a 529 plan for a six year old and a total stock index fund I plan to just fund until I die and leave it to my daughter. If I had different plans than that the current market slide would concern me. As my plan exists I just DCA like I am in my 30’s.
In fairness there’s only about 5 of us total on this board who meet that criteria.
I’m fairly sure about 75% of this board is collecting social security
Lol fair, never understood how the board ended up like this demographically
I think there was a poll a few years ago that showed the large majority of people on the board are Gen X and older Millennials, not Boomers. Maybe more Boomers in this thread, but not TKR overall.
DCA is great when you are just starting to invest. When you have accumulated a sizable portfolio, DCA doesn’t work. I’m still doing the 401k and other regular monthly auto invest. But that’s like .001% of the portfolio.
Still got BABA in our Roth IRAs. It's been a wild ride, but probably the one Chinese stock you need to own.
And for my daily.....GLD futures! They ripped to $3500 last night. Sold everything. Put in orders to rebuy overnight on a pullback at 2 lower levels. Maybe I should start a blog?
EDIT: GE would a good report today. Up 3-4%. So far the earnings season has been solid.
Last edited:
Gold has been on a crazy run. If you look at the chart it’s insane. Gotta be due for a decent size correction soon one would think.Still got BABA in our Roth IRAs. It's been a wild ride, but probably the one Chinese stock you need to own.
And for my daily.....GLD futures! They ripped to $3500 last night. Sold everything. Put in orders to rebuy overnight on a pullback at 2 lower levels. Maybe I should start a blog?
EDIT: GE would a good report today. Up 3-4%. So far the earnings season has been solid.
+1
Saw the rip last night and needed to take more profit. I assume any good market/tariff news will cause a temporary dip for GLD. That would be another great opportunity for a trade.
China starting to crumble. Now threatening S Korea with sanctions. This isn't going to end well for them.
Unfortunately during his 4 years, Biden grew the federal workforce by 6% to an already bloated sector. Gotta trim the fat if we are ever going to cut the deficit.
Careful..the stock ticker police who posts about Trump Tweets are going to get upset you're bringing politics into the thread.
Please stick to 3 digit codes in your posts.
The big issue China has is that the American companies who have outsourced their manufacturing to China have a market for their product mainly because of the American IP.
No one wants a compression shirt without the UA logo on it. No one wants Jordan’s without the swoosh. No one wants construction toys that don’t say Lego. No one wants a knock off iPhone.
So while America is being foolish about this because they should be pitting China, Vietnam, India, Central America against each other - the reality is the American IP drives the business, not the factory, so whenever we feel like it we will win this battle.
real jobs coming back!
Swiss pharma company wants to ensure continued access to the US market ....
They should never have closed down their facilities in Clifton (converted to Seton Hall medical school).
Pretty interesting chart of btc vs the nasdq over the last two years. It’s seem to have been coupled to equities but is outperforming
I did a 1-year consulting rotation at Hoffman La Roche in Nutley/Clifton after I got my MBA. Great campus, but already was scaling down. This was back in 03/04.
Correct. And America and nations other than China will benefit.
Don't fool yourself though. The amount of Chinese fake goods in America is astounding. Those Nike's on your feel might not even be real. Which gets to the larger point as it relates directly to China. This is partly about economic interests, but more about geo political and defense interests. Strengthening our economy at the expense of China is part of of that. Their overt and outright theft of our IP doesn't stop at shoes and handbags.
Market rallying across the board in extended. Trump = no intention of getting rid of Powell.
That I agree with you about. The IP theft has been going on for years.
Sounds like Bessent is sweet talking investors that the China tariffs will be resolved soon. Hope so!
Just noticed the rally in extended. Hilarious that that is the catalyst.
They told him it would do nothing because he needs to replace the full Fed board to get his rate cut.
They need to stop the free fall.
It caused the freakout yesterday, so I guess it makes sense from the other direction. This the market we are living with right now. LOL!