OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RU05]

competition especially Google’s TPUs holding NVDA back, not to mention circular deals. There will be a tipping point where the market is flooded with chips and oversupply brings these companies back to earth.
My favorite pick right now is Corning GLW. Unfortunately I missed most of the recent run up because I took too long to pull the trigger. Copper prices/supply will drive companies to fiber. Player in Data center buildouts. Telcos noted fiber supply/prices an issue which I took as a GLW green light.

But they ran up into the print? And sold off after it reported monster earnings, which beat expectations. What was the market looking for?

Currently 22x fwd earnings, on what is expected to be 60+% eps growth.

 

[RUAldo]

But they ran up into the print? And sold off after it reported monster earnings, which beat expectations. What was the market looking for?

Currently 22x fwd earnings, on what is expected to be 60+% eps growth.

Isn’t this usually the case with the most recent quarters = run up into print and then sell off? I also think there are a lot of custom algos and traders tied to directly to NVDA’s price action.

 

[T2Kplus20]

competition especially Google’s TPUs holding NVDA back, not to mention circular deals. There will be a tipping point where the market is flooded with chips and oversupply brings these companies back to earth.
My favorite pick right now is Corning GLW. Unfortunately I missed most of the recent run up because I took too long to pull the trigger. Copper prices/supply will drive companies to fiber. Player in Data center buildouts. Telcos noted fiber supply/prices an issue which I took as a GLW green light.

Definitely not Google. Its TPUs are vastly inferior compared to Blackwell and Rubin. Not even close to the H200s. Google continues to buy NVDA chips hand over fist.

Copper prices might go to $10. Buy COPX and COPJ and chill. IE if you want more spice!

 

[T2Kplus20]

But they ran up into the print? And sold off after it reported monster earnings, which beat expectations. What was the market looking for?

Currently 22x fwd earnings, on what is expected to be 60+% eps growth.

I read that the day after sell off was due to options positioning by the hedge funds and market moves. Made sense, I will try to find the article. As for Friday, just due to the PPI print.

 

[RUAllen4]

Definitely not Google. Its TPUs are vastly inferior compared to Blackwell and Rubin. Not even close to the H200s. Google continues to buy NVDA chips hand over fist.

Copper prices might go to $10. Buy COPX and COPJ and chill. IE if you want more spice!

But they're available and probably good enough for some use cases.

 

[RU05]

Isn’t this usually the case with the most recent quarters = run up into print and then sell off? I also think there are a lot of custom algos and traders tied to directly to NVDA’s price action.

For NVDA? Yes. So this sell off may not mean a whole lot.

For tech overall recently? I think so. And that is more concerning imo.

 

[RU05]

But they're available and probably good enough for some use cases.

Sure, but NVDA is still selling everything they can make.

 

[RU05]

Chris Verrone, purely off the technicals, thinks silver is a sell here. Gold is meh, and Copper is where to be.

Great show.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Chris Verrone, purely off the technicals, thinks silver is a sell here. Gold is meh, and Copper is where to be.

Great show.

Check out the Druck interview I posted above. He’s very bullish on copper as well. I have no idea what silver will do next, but gold will continue to grind higher over the next 3 years (Trump’s term) as nations use it to hedge against the dollar.

 

[RU05]

Check out the Druck interview I posted above. He’s very bullish on copper as well. I have no idea what silver will do next, but gold will continue to grind higher over the next 3 years (Trump’s term) as nations use it to hedge against the dollar.

Verrone's take on gold was it will chop for 6 months, (I think in the context of an overall upward trend), which could align with the 3 year grind higher.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Verrone's take on gold was it will chop for 6 months, (I think in the context of an overall upward trend), which could align with the 3 year grind higher.

Absolutely possible for gold to have multiple extended periods of chop over the next 3 years. Both thoughts align quite well.

 

[RU05]

So do we trade oil if it rips tomorrow, and look to buy back at a lower price in a week or two?

 

[T2Kplus20]

So do we trade oil if it rips tomorrow, and look to buy back at a lower price in a week or two?

Not sure, depends on the rip. I took profit with my SLB and XOM calls already, but still holding a ton of energy.....XLE calls, WMB calls, DNN calls, and 8-10 stock positions. The tankers are absolutely ripping:
NAT, FRO, NMM, and many others.

I assume the uncertainty with Iran might linger for a while? Unless a western-friendly leader takes control rather quickly.

 

[RU05]

Not sure, depends on the rip. I took profit with my SLB and XOM calls already, but still holding a ton of energy.....XLE calls, WMB calls, DNN calls, and 8-10 stock positions. The tankers are absolutely ripping:
NAT, FRO, NMM, and many others.

I assume the uncertainty with Iran might linger for a while? Unless a western-friendly leader takes control rather quickly.

I'm seeing WTI up 4.5% to $70.

Gold up 2%

Silver up 1%

 

[T2Kplus20]

I'm seeing WTI up 4.5% to $70.

Gold up 2%

Silver up 1%

My gold futures are trading at $5371, but opened higher, so a little fading. I would love to see oil stick above $70, but the news cycle is lighting quick these days.

What gold exposure do you have? Gold, copper, and oil/energy continue to roll.