Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

Esso Porch

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Jeffrey Epstein GIF

Is that Jeff Epstein the New York financier?
 

P. Marlowe

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Yes, but to be fair, the last time he did that was just a couple weeks ago and nothing happened while protesters got slaughtered. Maybe there will be more repercussions now.

That’s because there were efforts being made to resolve the situation in a way that would have taken care of multiple other foreign policy aims and avoided what is about to happen.
 
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P. Marlowe

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We need to stay out of this so bad. The uprising has already been squashed by the government. No one has ever surrendered to air power.

What? You think this has been squashed? A few days ago they were bringing Kataib Hezbollah factions and small time Iraqi warlords to help them deal with it and khameini is still a ghost but now it’s squashed?

Tehran….last night…

 

P. Marlowe

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Keep your eyes on Middle East again. Trump drew the proverbial line in the sand in the last 24 hours with Iran. Last time he did that telling them to negotiate or else, we destroyed their most important nuclear facilities. Now the targets would be the IRGC and their most important bases/personnel/leadership.

Lincoln CSG is on station and at least 1 more CSG likely headed that way. F15Es at Diego Garcia with tanker support and a lot of hardware at bases in Jordan currently including F22s/35s.

IRGC has no incentive to comply or negotiate so I expect us to hit them. Limited to start and be heavy handed if necessary. Hope I'm wrong here, but I believe it's inevitable.

US also has at least 2 of the new EA-37Bs there. Noteworthy as there are 5 total, currently and this will be the first operational use. They left Bermuda for Ramstein on Sunday. The UK has quietly been moving a lot of hardware, as well.
 
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CUT93

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If we manage to orchestrate a regime change in Iran, Israel won’t need America anymore. They will be completely unopposed in the Middle East. I haven’t decided if thats good or bad yet.
Right, bc I/m sure all the other countries surrounding Israel will join the new Iranian regime and immediately all hold hands with Israel and sing kumbaya around the campfire at night, lol.
 

kidmike41

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What? You think this has been squashed? A few days ago they were bringing Kataib Hezbollah factions and small time Iraqi warlords to help them deal with it and khameini is still a ghost but now it’s squashed?

Tehran….last night…


Israel News!! Come on man. Remember Iraq, never forget!
 

ChicagoTiger85

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That’s because there were efforts being made to resolve the situation in a way that would have taken care of multiple other foreign policy aims and avoided what is about to happen.
I think it had more to do with the fact our assets were being used somewhere else, like Venezuela. Regardless, the actions didn’t match the rhetoric. Hopefully they will, this time.
 

kidmike41

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I heard Iran was going to liberate Minnesota. They want to help the protesters.
 

kidmike41

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Catastrophe? Iraq is now a fairly stable democratic government that isn’t a threat to its neighbors and is partnered closely with the US. How is that a catastrophe?
We spent $2 trillion dollars, lost tons of goodwill around the world. They are an ally of Iran. If you think it was a net positive I don’t know what to say. Have you seen our budget deficit? I’m glad we created a fairly stable democratic government, nah it wasn’t worth it. Trump used to recognize that.

also the entire premise for the invasion was false. No weapons of mass destruction!
 
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PawsFan

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We spent $2 trillion dollars, lost tons of goodwill around the world. They are an ally of Iran. If you think it was a net positive I don’t know what to say. Have you seen our budget deficit? I’m glad we created a fairly stable democratic government, nah it wasn’t worth it. Trump used to recognize that.

also the entire premise for the invasion was false. No weapons of mass destruction!
Iraq is hardly an ally of Iran. There are Iraqi Shia who use Iran for support. However even Iraqi PM is hesitant to be too chummy with Iran. Mostly because they need US aid and security.
 

kidmike41

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Iraq is hardly an ally of Iran. There are Iraqi Shia who use Iran for support. However even Iraqi PM is hesitant to be too chummy with Iran. Mostly because they need US aid and security.
They allow Iran militias to operate within their country, they are a stated ally. Iraq was a catastrophe that we should have never started. Iran will be another one. When are we going to learn? How many Vietnams and Iraqs do we need to enrich the military industrial complex. You know who warned us of that, Dwight Eisenhower. We need to turn our focus to China and get our house in order.
 

gotigers24

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If we manage to orchestrate a regime change in Iran, Israel won’t need America anymore. They will be completely unopposed in the Middle East. I haven’t decided if thats good or bad yet.
The US has subsidized the state of Israel since its inception. There’s no way that gravy train is going to end.
 
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I think it had more to do with the fact our assets were being used somewhere else, like Venezuela. Regardless, the actions didn’t match the rhetoric. Hopefully they will, this time.
If anything Venezuela should have served notice that no amount of Chinese and Russian technology and training implemented to protect a client state can stop the US from coming to get you. We went through the best Russo/Chinese cryptology, air defenses, intelligence ops and trained troops in VZ like a hot knife through butter. We had the guy on a plane out of the country inside of 150 MINUTES of the beginnings of a ground operation.

Medvedev is right - the only deterrent to Uncle Sam coming and tapping you on the shoulder and saying "time to go pal" is nuclear weapons. And the smart money is on regime change in Iran before they finally have them. Personally, I think we have proved we can do this and it is a long time coming for the humiliation of November, 1979.
 

HunterPKP

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US also has at least 2 of the new EA-37Bs there. Noteworthy as there are 5 total, currently and this will be the first operational use. They left Bermuda for Ramstein on Sunday. The UK has quietly been moving a lot of hardware, as well.

Is that the plane specialized in Command and Control disruption?
 

HunterPKP

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If anything Venezuela should have served notice that no amount of Chinese and Russian technology and training implemented to protect a client state can stop the US from coming to get you. We went through the best Russo/Chinese cryptology, air defenses, intelligence ops and trained troops in VZ like a hot knife through butter. We had the guy on a plane out of the country inside of 150 MINUTES of the beginnings of a ground operation.

Medvedev is right - the only deterrent to Uncle Sam coming and tapping you on the shoulder and saying "time to go pal" is nuclear weapons. And the smart money is on regime change in Iran before they finally have them. Personally, I think we have proved we can do this and it is a long time coming for the humiliation of November, 1979.

To be fair, VZ didn't have Russia or China's best air defense systems. The best they had was the S300 and then older mid range Buk systems. We were certainly hot knife through butter there. Doesn't matter though. Israel helped us figure out that the S400 isn't as capable as the Russians would have you believe either. Essentially, it doesn't matter what Russia or China has sent to Iran over the last few months. Including the SU35s Russia recently sent, we're dominating it. By the way, Russia essentially pulled the expensive SU35s back after 50 year old Stingers were knocking them out of the sky in UKR.
 

P. Marlowe

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Is that the plane specialized in Command and Control disruption?

And EW coordination. My understanding after skimming a piece that was technically over my head is that it’s software system can coordinate attacks and essentially communicate with/use subordinate systems on other planes like EA-18s.
 
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P. Marlowe

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Israel News!! Come on man. Remember Iraq, never forget!

LOL. I’ve stated what I did before. ITT, probably. One of my closest friends was Syria desk then Iran desk. Stationed in Baku now. Talked to him early this week. It’s not letting up. There are coordinated efforts being made to arm Iranians. He also said they’re starting to see morgues flooded with bodies - like 30-40 at a time - that have been killed neatly and in basically the exact same way. Several are people who have been presumed dead after being arrested a year or two ago. Emptying out your prisons typically isn’t a move you make if things are business as usual.
 

kidmike41

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LOL. I’ve stated what I did before. ITT, probably. One of my closest friends was Syria desk then Iran desk. Stationed in Baku now. Talked to him early this week. It’s not letting up. There are coordinated efforts being made to arm Iranians. He also said they’re starting to see morgues flooded with bodies - like 30-40 at a time - that have been killed neatly and in basically the exact same way. Several are people who have been presumed dead after being arrested a year or two ago. Emptying out your prisons typically isn’t a move you make if things are business as usual.
This is not an issue that the USA needs to intervene in.
 

leetp

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We need to stay out of this so bad. The uprising has already been squashed by the government. No one has ever surrendered to air power.
The power vacuum will be immense. No way we can control it. Best to stay the ef out of it...at least in terms of overt kinetic engagement. But I'm also pretty apprehensive about any covert ops.
 

leetp

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And the Brits threatening to give Chagos Archipelago its independence. Including Diego Garcia. Now there is an island Trump should buy and annex.
No kidding. There are no friggin indigenous people there. Those places are barely even habitable by modern standards, and really only supportable by military interests. There is zero commercial value to that property. Furthermore, anyone's claim on that property is tenuous at best.

I have spent more than a few months on that island throughout the '90s and the early 2000s.
 
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P. Marlowe

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The power vacuum will be immense. No way we can control it. Best to stay the ef out of it...at least in terms of overt kinetic engagement. But I'm also pretty apprehensive about any covert ops.

Too late for covert ops. Those are already going and have been for a while. I have no issues with kinetic interdiction to remove a theocratic ******** massacring his own people. I have no interest in protracted operations or policing. You have to let Iranians handle the fallout and support them along the way. My guess is they will handle it reasonably well. Iranians are not their leadership. They want out of the shitstorm he their leadership has brought down on their heads. To a much greater degree and across a much larger percent of pop. than other recent entanglements that devolved into quagmires.
 

ChicagoTiger85

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If anything Venezuela should have served notice that no amount of Chinese and Russian technology and training implemented to protect a client state can stop the US from coming to get you. We went through the best Russo/Chinese cryptology, air defenses, intelligence ops and trained troops in VZ like a hot knife through butter. We had the guy on a plane out of the country inside of 150 MINUTES of the beginnings of a ground operation.

Medvedev is right - the only deterrent to Uncle Sam coming and tapping you on the shoulder and saying "time to go pal" is nuclear weapons. And the smart money is on regime change in Iran before they finally have them. Personally, I think we have proved we can do this and it is a long time coming for the humiliation of November, 1979.
Yes, but I was referring to timing around statements. We had to move assets around.
 
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MBTiger23

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Tomorrow and Saturday should get very interesting from what I've heard. Buddy was told to leave Israel sooner than later if he can. He's traveling with some local politicians on a religious trip.
 
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PawsFan

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They allow Iran militias to operate within their country, they are a stated ally.
No. The Iraqi's have their own Shia militia which are supported financially by the Iranians. What to know why we killed Soleiman? It's because he supported the aid to orgs like these. The Iraqi government doesn't want these organizations in the country. The Shia militia's are there in part to make sure the Sunni minority never abuse the Shia population again.

If you want to say Iraq and Iran have open / intertwined relations, I buy that. Allies? Nope. Ever hear of the Iran/Iraq war?
 

kidmike41

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No. The Iraqi's have their own Shia militia which are supported financially by the Iranians. What to know why we killed Soleiman? It's because he supported the aid to orgs like these. The Iraqi government doesn't want these organizations in the country. The Shia militia's are there in part to make sure the Sunni minority never abuse the Shia population again.

If you want to say Iraq and Iran have open / intertwined relations, I buy that. Allies? Nope. Ever hear of the Iran/Iraq war?
That war was between Sadaam and Iran, things have changed. I actually could care less. I don’t want anymore adventurism in the Middle East. You argued that Iraq War was not a catastrophe, it was about as bad a foreign policy bungle we have ever had. All based on a lie. Stay out of Iran!! Please!!
 
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