Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

[DividedPi]

Yes. Much of this is gameplanned out years in advance based on various scenarios. What John and Jane Q Public are not privy is if the leadership went with one of those plans, came up with a new plan, or just said "lets push this button and see what happens." Plus, leaders throughout history have shown that it only takes few minor things to derail a very sound plan. They get risk averse, over-confident, distracted, drunk among many reasons leaders failed.

Yankee Generals the Civil War - Failure to press advantage that may have ended war years earlier.
Germans Schlieffen Plan WWI - Delayed early execution that may have capitulated France.
Hitler WWII - Opening the Eastern Front - Getting bogged down in Stalingrad

Those quickly come to mind. I am sure there are some classic history majors that can offer something from the Greeks, Romans, Gauls etc .

It seems pretty clear we thought we could kill their leadership and blow a bunch of stuff up then they would come begging to us for a deal and offer to let Trump pick the new leader à la Venezuela. His early comments said as much.

Obviously that hasn't happened and now we are in a situation where we can minimize the threat (whatever it ever actually was) with bombing and missile strikes but will never totally eliminate it without a ground invasion that would bog us down into another decade of war.

We played chicken with the IRGC and so far they haven't swerved. The populace does not have the means to overthrow the government even if they do want to and the longer they suffer from the collateral damage of this war the more the IRGC becomes their only hope and further entrenched in power. Because of this the IRGC has no incentive to stop fighting.

I mean think about it, what could we offer the IRGC that would be attractive enough to make them agree to stop and also not compromise the alleged purpose(s) of this war? Israel doesn't exactly have a reputation for upholding their end of ceasefire agreements anyway so why would they even trust any peace proposal to begin with?

It really comes down to whether we can open the SOH and keep it open (convincingly enough for shipping companies and their insurers) without troops on the ground.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

To be fair, there were and are plans. It does not mean they were executed as planned.

or to put it another way...

Don’t even think it’s that, but more so that we didn’t follow the procedure of any plan we had in place, and instead wanted to take advantage of an opportunity.

 

[BigPapaWhit]

Don’t even think it’s that, but more so that we didn’t follow the procedure of any plan we had in place, and instead wanted to take advantage of an opportunity.

That’s not out of the realm of possibilities. Yet, I hesitate to explore where that may take us lest it invite even stranger posts or posters into the discussion.

 

[tboonpickens]

Amanpour is obv very plugged into the region

 

[SDTiger9]

Don’t even think it’s that, but more so that we didn’t follow the procedure of any plan we had in place, and instead wanted to take advantage of an opportunity.

Sadly it tends to be more of your last statement than anything else nowadays.

 

[palmettodeuce]

And yesterday we have a Bibi tell us in his press conference that Jesus Christ is no match for Genghis Khan. That evil will defeat good. Now that’s the kind of ally we need.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

It seems pretty clear we thought we could kill their leadership and blow a bunch of stuff up then they would come begging to us for a deal and offer to let Trump pick the new leader à la Venezuela. His early comments said as much.

Obviously that hasn't happened and now we are in a situation where we can minimize the threat (whatever it ever actually was) with bombing and missile strikes but will never totally eliminate it without a ground invasion that would bog us down into another decade of war.

We played chicken with the IRGC and so far they haven't swerved. The populace does not have the means to overthrow the government even if they do want to and the longer they suffer from the collateral damage of this war the more the IRGC becomes their only hope and further entrenched in power. Because of this the IRGC has no incentive to stop fighting.

I mean think about it, what could we offer the IRGC that would be attractive enough to make them agree to stop and also not compromise the alleged purpose(s) of this war? Israel doesn't exactly have a reputation for upholding their end of ceasefire agreements anyway so why would they even trust any peace proposal to begin with?

It really comes down to whether we can open the SOH and keep it open (convincingly enough for shipping companies and their insurers) without troops on the ground.

We have 7-10 days until missed shipments starting hitting Asian ports and that’s when things start to get really hairy

 

[BigPapaWhit]

We have 7-10 days until missed shipments starting hitting Asian ports and that’s when things start to get really hairy

MIssed shipments of ... ?

 

[GDead_Tiger]

MIssed shipments of ... ?

Oil and gas. There’s still stuff on the water coming in to ports but the impact of the SOH closure will hit within 7-10 days.

 

[DividedPi]

Amanpour is obv very plugged into the region

It would seem to me that as they continue to kill off rounds and rounds of new military leaders and the IRGC becomes more fractured it's going to get harder and harder to reign this whole thing in.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

It would seem to me that as they continue to kill off rounds and rounds of new military leaders and the IRGC becomes more fractured it's going to get harder and harder to reign this whole thing in.

Yes, you want someone in charge/control so you can negotiate with them. A fractured state like Syria is a very bad outcome

 

[chipp1027]

Yes, you want someone in charge/control so you can negotiate with them. A fractured state like Syria is a very bad outcome

While I understand and agree in many ways, not sure a fractured state of Iran is worse for the US than a regime that wants to wipe us off the planet. Possibly worse for the Iranian people.

 

[tboonpickens]

 

[GDead_Tiger]

While I understand and agree in many ways, not sure a fractured state of Iran is worse for the US than a regime that wants to wipe us off the planet. Possibly worse for the Iranian people.

I'll be flamed for this but Iran's rhetoric and their actions don't match up with that stated goal. A fractured state is worse because it will serve as a training ground for terrorists, spill into neighboring countries, destabilize the region even more, and threaten oil and LNG production meaning it will threaten the global economy

 

[SDTiger9]

I'll be flamed for this but Iran's rhetoric and their actions don't match up with that stated goal. A fractured state is worse because it will serve as a training ground for terrorists, spill into neighboring countries, destabilize the region even more, and threaten oil and LNG production meaning it will threaten the global economy

Trying to provide analysis on a situation that’s logical to the West has no bearing on Iran. The luxury belief of an order vs fractured state is a Western want belief. For Iran, it could be anything cause we are screwing with them constantly.

I can only imagine the culture mindset of a country where they are under constant pressure and threat from Israel and US for decades. Then, you systematically start eradicating leadership as if there’s some proper workflow chart of succession that smoothly works.

I can totally see a “going down in flames” approach by Iran by pissing everyone off and hurting everyone economically cause that hurts the US the most.

 

[SDTiger9]

What is this BS obsession about antisemitism?

Screw Dabo, he’s not getting the job done. That’s not antiClemson.

The Brits need reform on their social media laws. That’s not anti British.

When ANYONE builds a fabricated wall or rules against a class of people to not be criticized is actually highly dangerous for those particular people.

Mainstream Media, the Democratic Party, many in the Republican Party wanted NOTHING TO DO with Donald Trump 10 years ago. It was deemed OK to attack him constantly. And boom, a non US politician became POTUS, TWICE.

Now, in reverse, there is an equal level of speech enforcement against an amorphous definition of antisemitism. We are at the point that criticizing the NY Giants(Tisch) or the old LA Clippers(Sterling) can be claimed as antisemitism by some idiot because the owners are Jewish. Ignore that Sterling was highly racist and Tisch is littered across the Epstein files in a bad way.

I grew up in NY with nothing but Jewish, Italian, Polish, Irish families. We all got along great. We didn’t withhold commentary from Italian families that the mafia had gone too far. It’s just the facts and the IDENTITY POLITICS of the last 15-20 years is just utilized as a way to SILENCE PEOPLE by the left and the right. All of that is harmful and hateful particularly to the alleged “protected” groups. It never ends well, ever.

The US government is spending a tremendous amount of outsized time and resources with a foreign country. Historically, we have done this in many places. Wanting to leave Vietnam, wasn’t antiVietnamese. It was pro American.

Wanting to stop the shipment of weapons through Israel to Iran during an embargo to help fund other weapon shipments to Nicaragua that paid the US in cocaine who then sold that cocaine to US citizens isn’t anti Israeli, anti Iranian, anti Nicaraguan. It’s quit selling drugs to our own US Citizens. It’s pro American.

This perverted language of antisemitism is going to hurt Jews domestic and abroad. The Lukid party is damaging their country. They may have a case for certain things but it not without criticism. Anyone believing that is a zealot for ANYTHING.

There will always anti Americans, anti Italians, anti Russian, anti Black, anti Soccer players. But believing any of them are a protected class from criticism NEVER works well for any of them. Because morality defines a person or a people. And history will always judge and determine that.

If Rudy Giuliani dies in 2005, he’d probably have a 80% favorability rating. Now, it’s probably below 50%. You are the result of your actions.

Dabo in a similar fashion if he retired in 2020 would be 95+% with Clemson people. Probably 80% now. Actions matter no matter who you are.

Fvckin hell…… I swear it was off the cuff and a best proper assessment. And for fun I just looked it up.

Having a strong favorability rating for Israel made a lot of sense up to 18-24 months ago. Dropping that score isn’t antisemitism, it’s just the results of your collective actions. HUMANS need to stand up for HUMAN RIGHTS and not SELECTIVE RIGHTS.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Trying to provide analysis on a situation that’s logical to the West has no bearing on Iran. The luxury belief of an order vs fractured state is a Western want belief. For Iran, it could be anything cause we are screwing with them constantly.

I can only imagine the culture mindset of a country where they are under constant pressure and threat from Israel and US for decades. Then, you systematically start eradicating leadership as if there’s some proper workflow chart of succession that smoothly works.

I can totally see a “going down in flames” approach by Iran by pissing everyone off and hurting everyone economically cause that hurts the US the most.

By fractured state I mean a failed state like Libya or what happened in Syria during their civil war

 

[SDTiger9]

Fvckin hell…… I swear it was off the cuff and a best proper assessment. And for fun I just looked it up.

Having a strong favorability rating for Israel made a lot of sense up to 18-24 months ago. Dropping that score isn’t antisemitism, it’s just the results of your collective actions. HUMANS need to stand up for HUMAN RIGHTS and not SELECTIVE RIGHTS.

I need to buy a lottery ticket. Josh Pate with a similar Dabo assessment.

The use of the term Antisemitism has been weaponized by a very diabolical select group of people to shutdown dissent so they aren’t to be challenged or held responsible for their actions. A very dangerous place to be for everyone, particularly the innocent.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

The Trump administration, particularly Scott Bessent, is discussing lifting sanctions on Iranian oil tankers already on the water. Interesting

 

[SDTiger9]

By fractured state I mean a failed state like Libya or what happened in Syria during their civil war

I want the USA to be a strong adherence to the US CONSTITUTION. It best serves the collective. You agree? Otherwise why even have it?

Whatever desire of the “future” state of Iran is a luxury belief. It’s like you do not like your neighbor across the street cause you hear him yell a lot and caught him hitting his wife once.

So, you take matters into your own hands and disable the guy, he can’t walk. Now, you feel good that he won’t be beating his wife but you’ve upped their entire cost structure. They can’t pay for their kids college and the son seeks refuge with some bad influences where dad can’t go out and enforce being a father. Now, you’ve made matters worse for literally everyone.

The playbook into foreign interference…. Where has it actually helped those people and America? At this juncture….. it’s only the defense and rebuild industry which is probably what it’s always been about anyway.

I’m not politically aligned, just a pragmatist and historian. If we went around solving world peace one county after the next, sign me up! There is no other conclusion other than capital expense and making money and ruining both American and whatever lives abroad.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Iraq just declared force majeure on all oil fields developed by foreign companies (so a huge chunk of them)

 

[UrHuckleberry]

Iraq just declared force majeure on all oil fields developed by foreign companies (so a huge chunk of them)

Had to look up that definition because all my mind was saying was "Prima nocta"

 

[chipp1027]

Trying to provide analysis on a situation that’s logical to the West has no bearing on Iran. The luxury belief of an order vs fractured state is a Western want belief. For Iran, it could be anything cause we are screwing with them constantly.

I can only imagine the culture mindset of a country where they are under constant pressure and threat from Israel and US for decades. Then, you systematically start eradicating leadership as if there’s some proper workflow chart of succession that smoothly works.

I can totally see a “going down in flames” approach by Iran by pissing everyone off and hurting everyone economically cause that hurts the US the most.

I give up, all you guys are right….America is the bad guys. That’s literally the theme of a very vocal group here. God bless our country. SMH.

 

[yoshi121374]

I give up, all you guys are right….America is the bad guys. That’s literally the theme of a very vocal group here. God bless our country. SMH.

Nobody is saying that. We are saying the communication and messaging from our government for why we willingly entered into a war in the Middle East, which we have multiple fairly recent examples of, has been very poor.

Can anyone here tell me what is the reason we are attacking Iran now?

Can anyone honestly say that Trump has explained the reasons and made a case for the necessity of war?

There are many people and things that I love, that doesn't mean I don't wish they did things better, or that I love others more. It's not unpatriotic to want more from your country.

 

[chipp1027]

delete

 

[chipp1027]

Delete

 

[Quincy2009]

It seems pretty clear we thought we could kill their leadership and blow a bunch of stuff up then they would come begging to us for a deal and offer to let Trump pick the new leader à la Venezuela. His early comments said as much.

Obviously that hasn't happened and now we are in a situation where we can minimize the threat (whatever it ever actually was) with bombing and missile strikes but will never totally eliminate it without a ground invasion that would bog us down into another decade of war.

We played chicken with the IRGC and so far they haven't swerved. The populace does not have the means to overthrow the government even if they do want to and the longer they suffer from the collateral damage of this war the more the IRGC becomes their only hope and further entrenched in power. Because of this the IRGC has no incentive to stop fighting.

I mean think about it, what could we offer the IRGC that would be attractive enough to make them agree to stop and also not compromise the alleged purpose(s) of this war? Israel doesn't exactly have a reputation for upholding their end of ceasefire agreements anyway so why would they even trust any peace proposal to begin with?

It really comes down to whether we can open the SOH and keep it open (convincingly enough for shipping companies and their insurers) without troops on the ground.

I was in complete support of this in the first few days. It appeared we had a plan and what a successful outcome looked like. Three weeks in, this is a complete disaster. Sure, we have dismantled their military capabilities yet Iran is still holding the world hostage by closing the straight and hitting our Middle Eastern allies. I have agreed with 85% off the moves this administration has made but I am done. This is complete amateur hour stuff. We allowed Israel to suck us in without proper preparation. Why should our “allies” come to our aid? Why were we not prepared to protect the straight on our own? We have embarrassed and crapped all over them for the last year. There is a way to negotiate with dignity, it needed to be done but we chose to degrade them. Zero chance we didn’t know Israel was going to bomb the gas fields, we knew and then had to beg Netanyahu to cover for us. Time to say enough is enough, bail, no more lives lost and no more money spent. Four more weeks of this boondoggle and there will be now way out. Guarantee we now lose the mid-terms because of this idiotic foray.

 

[chipp1027]

Nobody is saying that. We are saying the communication and messaging from our government for why we willingly entered into a war in the Middle East, which we have multiple fairly recent examples of, has been very poor.

Can anyone here tell me what is the reason we are attacking Iran now?

Can anyone honestly say that Trump has explained the reasons and made a case for the necessity of war?

There are many people and things that I love, that doesn't mean I don't wish they did things better, or that I love others more. It's not unpatriotic to want more from your country.

This regime has spent years pursuing nuclear-grade uranium and developing ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and the United States. They have openly admitted to negotiators that they have enough material to build multiple nuclear weapons—all while continuing to express intentions of wiping us off the map.

This isn’t new information. It has been covered for years by outlets like 60 Minutes and discussed by leaders on both sides of the aisle, who largely agreed: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

For a long time, this was a nonpartisan issue. But once action was taken under the “wrong” president, the narrative changed. Now, despite years of consensus, people still ask why we are at war—often because they don’t want to hear or acknowledge the full story.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

This regime has spent years pursuing nuclear-grade uranium and developing ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and the United States.

This is incorrect

 

[chipp1027]

This is incorrect

BS

 

[tigres88]

This regime has spent years pursuing nuclear-grade uranium and developing ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and the United States. They have openly admitted to negotiators that they have enough material to build multiple nuclear weapons—all while continuing to express intentions of wiping us off the map.

This isn’t new information. It has been covered for years by outlets like 60 Minutes and discussed by leaders on both sides of the aisle, who largely agreed: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

For a long time, this was a nonpartisan issue. But once action was taken under the “wrong” president, the narrative changed. Now, despite years of consensus, people still ask why we are at war—often because they don’t want to hear or acknowledge the full story.

Yall are obsessed and its so sad. This isn't partisan AT ALL: Literally NO ONE wanted to get embroiled into a long term conflict in the Middle East again. Everyone knows how this goes, we've lived through it multiple times. Give it a rest, this was unnecessary and unwanted full stop.

This isn't hard folks.

 

[SDTiger9]

I give up, all you guys are right….America is the bad guys. That’s literally the theme of a very vocal group here. God bless our country. SMH.

The inability to see the world through your opponents eyes is not only dumb but dangerous.
It’s called scouting and you better be damn good at it or you will lose.

I love the USA immensely. Our independence, our constitution our freedom as defined. America has a poor scorecard at determining the behavior of the opponent especially in the ME. America is studied extensively by our opponents cause we are #1. We better be damn good with 3-4 exit strategies before you drop the first bomb. Arrogance will get you killed.

Damn right god bless our country.

 

[chipp1027]

I’m out, this thread is absolutely worthless.

 

[yoshi121374]

I’m out, this thread is absolutely worthless.

Worthless because people refuted your comments?

 

[tigres88]

The ONLY people in this thread making this partisan are the one's making up manufactured grievances about the "libtards."

I’m out, this thread is absolutely worthless.

 

[tboonpickens]

 

[SDTiger9]

Don looking at the economic scorecard and probably some of the real reality of the forecast.

It’s at least weakened to damaged many of his gulf relationships. I’m sure he’s received the message.

 

[Solid Orange Blood]

Much more diversity of thought in this thread vs the 'Merica tMB thread.

Thanks for all the insight fellas (and Ladies?)

 

[SDTiger9]

Much more diversity of thought in this thread vs the 'Merica tMB thread.

Thanks for all the insight fellas (and Ladies?)

I’m hoping we get beyond diversity and gain simple focus on problem solving based on reality and not ideology or a “team”.

Both “teams” have demonstrated a pathetic win rate trying to stay in power. It’s as if they are negligent by design.

Why in the **** has anyone educated yourself? A tool used to manipulate people or use the tools to figure **** out for the better?

I never thought it would get this weighted to even become a question.

 

[sleepy64561]

2 massive reasons for the lost art lens adjustment.

1. Attention spans/variable information access - when we read newspapers, it was all intact. It was dialed in with limited distraction. And it was well written.

2. Phones encourage brain rot multitasking and I fall victim to it constantly.
Reading Iran news article
Quick text
Score of CU baseball game?
Tim Dillon Podcast drop yet?
What’s @fatpiggy saying now?
What article was I reading?
Nice clickbait article title
Is Dabo actually gonna let Chad cook?
Back to article
Uranium enrichment at 220 or 221?
Does anyone really think this is about nukes? ⛽️ and
Is @RaleighTiger OG OK?
What article was I reading? Ah, Iran playing in the World Cup.
And on and on and on

(I’m not this pathetic especially when it comes to serious discussion and topics. But, it’s indicative of the world we now live in. You can’t have a serious conversation with people especially when they have predetermined outcomes. Many don’t even want to try.)

Have you read the book Amusing Ourselves to Death? The author (I’m blanking on his name right now) coined the phrase “Now This” for the key point you are making.

I highly recommend it to everyone about consuming any media/journalism.