Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

[sleepy64561]

I'll be flamed for this but Iran's rhetoric and their actions don't match up with that stated goal. A fractured state is worse because it will serve as a training ground for terrorists, spill into neighboring countries, destabilize the region even more, and threaten oil and LNG production meaning it will threaten the global economy

TBH I don’t think Iran can get any worse with respect to terrorism. They’re a fairly well oiled machine (pun intended) in that respect.

There’s a small chance that if enough high level leaders are taken out eventually people will stop accepting promotions for a death sentence.

However, I think it’s unlikely to create regime change without boots on the ground and I feel like almost all of us are against that.

 

[SDTiger9]

Have you read the book Amusing Ourselves to Death? The author (I’m blanking on his name right now) coined the phrase “Now This” for the key point you are making.

I highly recommend it to everyone about consuming any media/journalism.

Thanks for the recommendation. I’ll take a look.

 

[sleepy64561]

TBH I think this could be a best case scenario for us, and the key difference is that we don’t have boots on the ground.

Until the SOH dilemma is solved there’s only so much we can realistically accomplish.

 

[sleepy64561]

I’m surprised there isn’t more alliance with the US regarding the SOH.

I understand other countries disagreeing or simply not wanting to be directly involved with the conflict with Iran. However, Iran targeting commercial shipping isn’t a defense that anyone can seriously justify imo (I understand why they are doing it, to be clear, but that doesn’t mean it would be recognized as any reasonable form of defense).

An example of what I have in mind is when the commercial plane was shot out of the sky above Ukraine around summer 2014, almost surely due to Russian backed militias accidentally targeting the plane. Nobody in foreign policy would have considered that a legit defense. It’s definitely not an apples to apples comparison, but it’s just illustrating the key point I’m trying to make.

The SOH is such a tight space at its narrowest point, I’m more surprised we haven’t figured out other alternatives a long time ago.

 

[SDTiger9]

The SOH is such a tight space at its narrowest point, I’m more surprised we haven’t figured out other alternatives a long time ago.

They did because of Iran/Iraq wars of the 80s. Saw a segment that the Saudis (pardon my recollection summary) are using a cross Saudi pipeline to southwest Saudi/Red Sea area and ship from there. And, the Iranians were able to strike there as well.

Saudi Arabia Loses Patience as Red Sea Terminal and Refinery are Targeted

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry spoke out on Thursday, March 19, saying that any “trust with Tehran has been shattered” after reporting that the capit...

maritime-executive.com

East–West Crude Oil Pipeline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[kidmike41]

TBH I don’t think Iran can get any worse with respect to terrorism. They’re a fairly well oiled machine (pun intended) in that respect.

There’s a small chance that if enough high level leaders are taken out eventually people will stop accepting promotions for a death sentence.

However, I think it’s unlikely to create regime change without boots on the ground and I feel like almost all of us are against that.

Why do people keep saying this about terrorism. The Saudi’s exported 9/11 to us.

 

[TRich24]

Why do people keep saying this about terrorism. The Saudi’s exported 9/11 to us.

The Iranians definitely sponsor a number of terrorist groups, but to your point we forgave the Saudis because they are good business partners.

Iran has been anti US ever since we orchestrated a coup to oust their democratically elected leader because he wouldn’t let the west control the Persian oil.

 

[grazhoppa]

And yesterday we have a Bibi tell us in his press conference that Jesus Christ is no match for Genghis Khan. That evil will defeat good. Now that’s the kind of ally we need.

He was quoting Will Durant- who was arguing that “turn the other cheek” or “might does not make right” is refuted by history. While, as a Christian, I would argue against this to an extent, I can understand the sentiment in a political context. Augustine makes it clear that, in a fallen world, we can use force for good and justice.

You might not get a sound bite invoking the name of Jesus like this from our other “allies,” but what do they believe in this regard? Is it better to submit to your enemies? Is it better to only use force when polling suggests that it would be popular? Is it better to turn the other cheek when someone who openly calls for your annihilation is obtaining nuclear weapons?

 

[tigerjohn14]

I’m out, this thread is absolutely worthless.

And just like that, the thread gets better

 

[sleepy64561]

Why do people keep saying this about terrorism. The Saudi’s exported 9/11 to us.

I don’t think of it as an either/or situation, I think they’re both responsible in different ways. There’s definitely double standard between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the others, but as @TRich24 pointed out, the other countries are more engaged with us in other foreign policy and business matters, and that complicates everything.

The bottom line imo is if we didn’t need oil we wouldn’t have to worry about the Middle East, it’s a total cluster **** of a region. But that’s not an option anytime soon, unfortunately.

 

[Solid Orange Blood]

Have you read the book Amusing Ourselves to Death? The author (I’m blanking on his name right now) coined the phrase “Now This” for the key point you are making.

I highly recommend it to everyone about consuming any media/journalism.

Neil Postman

Here's a link to the PDF copy:

https://dn720703.ca.archive.org/0/items/Various_PDFs/NeilPostman-AmusingOurselvesToDeath.pdf

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Apparently we’re buying $14 billion worth of oil from Iran, LMAO

 

[grazhoppa]

Diego Garcia targeted with (failed) missile strikes. 4000 km range. Map above shows a 4000 km radius around Tehran.

 

[MBRO]

View attachment 1226229
Diego Garcia targeted with (failed) missile strikes. 4000 km range. Map above shows a 4000 km radius around Tehran.

Good thread on it here.

 

[MBRO]

Good thread on it here.

Israel claiming it was a two-stage, so that rules out a Khorramshahr.

 

[chipp1027]

This is incorrect

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ir...kxjLc?st=PPT7QQ&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ir...-2026?st=oAiNa2&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ir...-2026?st=NL17rH&reflink=article_copyURL_share


https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/...wruz-rcna264408/rcrd105407?canonicalCard=true

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/...wruz-rcna264408/rcrd105379?canonicalCard=true

View attachment 1226229
Diego Garcia targeted with (failed) missile strikes. 4000 km range. Map above shows a 4000 km radius around Tehran.

But remember, just yesterday those that hijacked this thread were claiming it was incorrect that Iran was working on longer range ballistic missiles. Can now reach over half of Europe. So no way this is true. Lol.

 

[other1]

Apparently we’re buying $14 billion worth of oil from Iran, LMAO

So we are funding the country we are bombing. That makes sense. trump really has his act together. What happened to the thought that we were energy independent??? Wasn't trump pushing that notion.

 

[P. Marlowe]

Apparently we’re buying $14 billion worth of oil from Iran, LMAO

Link?

 

[tboonpickens]

So we are funding the country we are bombing. That makes sense. trump really has his act together. What happened to the thought that we were energy independent??? Wasn't trump pushing that notion.

we're also funding Russia who is giving Iran information so they can try to kill more of our soldiers while we decided to accept the help Ukraine offered to fight Iranian strikes way back that we didn't take at the time because we were too busy scolding them for fighting actual imminent threats from Russia our longest standing global enemy.

The art of the deal.

 

[navytiger]

Why do people keep saying this about terrorism. The Saudi’s exported 9/11 to us.

All you have to do is google what terrorist attacks that Iran is responsible for.

 

[BigPapaWhit]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ir...kxjLc?st=PPT7QQ&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ir...-2026?st=oAiNa2&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ir...-2026?st=NL17rH&reflink=article_copyURL_share


https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/...wruz-rcna264408/rcrd105407?canonicalCard=true

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/...wruz-rcna264408/rcrd105379?canonicalCard=true

But remember, just yesterday those that hijacked this thread were claiming it was incorrect that Iran was working on longer range ballistic missiles. Can now reach over half of Europe. So no way this is true. Lol.

Whew.
Thought you were gone.

 

[tboonpickens]

YOLO

 

[tboonpickens]

interesting perspective from the guy who resigned his position earlier this week

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Much more diversity of thought in this thread vs the 'Merica tMB thread.

Thanks for all the insight fellas (and Ladies?)

Had to give up on tMB thread. Too many guys spamming the same nonsense from Twitter and calling people who disagreed f*gs and r*tards. Any good discussion got buried

 

[GDead_Tiger]

The potential impact this will have on the ammonia/fertilizer industries is deeply concerning

 

[athigpe]

YOLO

This conflict is about to really worsen and will ensure a prolonged conflict IMO. Nightmare.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

This conflict is about to really worsen and will ensure a prolonged conflict IMO. Nightmare.

This week is vital

 

[NasaRunner12]

As a moderate Republican, I'm really looking forward to 2028 so DJT can get gone. I hope Wes Moore gets on the ticket.

 

[tboonpickens]

Iran doesn't seem like they're about to pull a TACO

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Iran doesn't seem like they're about to pull a TACO

They’ll start going after more oil and gas infrastructure as well as water infrastructure

 

[Cubigfoot]

Appreciate all of those providing insight and knowledge on the current conflict going on in the ME with Iran. Keep them coming.

With that said, I truly do hope that I'm not watching “Turning Point: The Iran War” at some point in 40 to 50 years.

Hoping for the best outcome.

 

[P. Marlowe]

Per solid source:

"On the 9th of Esfand, when Mojtaba was severely injured, he underwent surgery at Sina Hospital (one of his legs was amputated; his condition was critical, with brain edema, and he was intubated with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of at most 5). After the operation, he was transferred to Baqiyatollah Hospital. Until the following Monday, his level of consciousness was around 9, and he was still intubated.

That means for up to ten days after the injury, he remained in critical condition: unconscious, breathing with a ventilator, and hospitalized in the ICU. So this patient didn’t only have bleeding or limb amputation; he had also suffered brain injury, and his condition was not stable. I don’t know how severe the head injury was, but even if he was alive, his state wouldn’t have been good.

The amputation is certain.

But the rest of his body was not unharmed either, and he had other injuries. If the drop in consciousness had been only due to blood loss, then within a day or two, with surgery, care, and hemodynamic stabilization, he should have improved. However, even after 10 days (19 Esfand), his level of consciousness remained low. That’s why I strongly suspect he also had brain injury and was likely in a coma.

There have been multiple reports about where he was taken, making it unclear. From the 19th of Esfand until now, with the New Year, I didn’t follow up closely and only saw your message about his death in a coma, which is consistent with his condition."

 

[P. Marlowe]

UAE President MbZ's Advisor Anwar Gargash:

“As we confront the brutal Iranian aggression and discover our steadfast strength in resilience and endurance, our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire, but rather turns toward solutions that ensure lasting security in the Arabian Gulf, curbing the nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the bullying of the straits.

It is inconceivable that this aggression should turn into a permanent state of threat.”

MBZ is probably the savviest and most intelligent/forward thinking of the Arab leaders in the ME. Behind closed doors the US is hearing a lot of this. The message is almost uniformly - “finish the job.” We are urging the UAE to help in a very critical way. Think it probably goes official in the next 48-72 hours.

 

[tboonpickens]

honestly not sure if this is a new number for troops or not...

 

[P. Marlowe]

honestly not sure if this is a new number for troops or not...

It’s not. We’ve known the Tripoli (LHA-7) and accompanying ships were en route for more than a week.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Interesting development

 

[UrHuckleberry]

View attachment 1228355
Interesting development

Hope they find a way to end things this week (maybe the witch will help, willing to try anything).

 

[P. Marlowe]

View attachment 1228355
Interesting development

Not really. He just attempted to calm markets for a trading week. The following week is a low volume week because we all go on vacation through Easter Monday.

 

[GDead_Tiger]

Hope they find a way to end things this week (maybe the witch will help, willing to try anything).

Lmao

Also, Israel is still hitting Iranian power infrastructure and both of them have said this US statement isn’t accurate

 

[athigpe]

View attachment 1228355
Interesting development

Trump grasping at straws, especially when Israel is involved.