Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

Dungeon09

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Dec 1, 2021
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Ok, thank you for answering. I too abhor nuclear weapons.

The problem with everyone having nuclear energy is those countries could theoretically turn that technology into something nefarious. I barely trust first world nations not to behave irresponsibly with nukes, I sure don’t trust Islamic fundamentalist countries, that shout “Death to America! Death to the West!” to be responsible. We already have North Korea waving nuclear capabilities around (whether they can actually launch it on viable ICBMs or not).

It’d be nice for everyone to have clean, efficient, cheap energy but who is going to enforce 196 countries all follow rules and regulations? The U.N.? They can’t enforce anything if a country with an army says no. For every country to have nuclear energy seems like one of those “nice in theory, won’t work in reality” kind of ideas. No matter how much everybody would benefit.
There are uhhh…more than a couple of steps between generating reactor grade nuclear material and operational nuclear weapons. Over 30 countries have nuclear power generation, only nine have nuclear weapons.
 

Dungeon09

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Dec 1, 2021
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It isn’t that long. They may have sufficient amounts of enriched uranium for a few already. We’ve learned - in the last several weeks - that the number of operational centrifuges is significantly higher than previously thought.
Getting the material is kind of the easy part. Engineering it into a viable weapons system - not to mention solving the delivery problems - is a major effort on its own.
 

GDead_Tiger

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Dec 7, 2021
13,060
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SMH

Really?
Yes. It is well known/discussed within Israel.








Netanyahu and co hate the families of the hostages, and the latter routinely protest against Netanyahu. (Mizrahi Jews, who make up the backbone of Likud, also hate Holocaust survivors but that is a story for another day)
 

PawsFan

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Dec 17, 2019
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We've told Israel we will protect them. Therefore, I think there will be a degree of collaboration. It was our intel gleaned from UKR/Russia that let them know the S300/400s were dogshit and they should be able to attack Iran without fear. Over 100 Israeli planes used in that attack. All returned without a scratch. There will be a degree of collaboration.

I don't want war, but Iran's gotten way too big for their britches so to speak. My wish list if this goes forward.

1. Total obliteration of their Nuclear facilities.
2. Destruction of the QUDs and Special Forces. They help train all their proxies. Take away that.
3. Destruction of any offensive capabilities of the Navy.
4. Further destruction of all Military Critical Infrastructure (I'm looking at you missile bases)



I hope you're right to a degree. I just don't see it. It costs nearly 165k an hour to operate 1 B2 bomber. We aren't taking 6 over there for show. A 7th will leave HNL at some point and join them. Supposedly 5-6 B52s on the ground. More C17s every single day and now as @BionicTiger said 5-6 C5s. Planefinder had a line of C5s leave Dover this morning as well. They've since turned off their Transponders.

It costs 6.5MM on average per day to operate a Carrier Strike Group. Two for certain will be there and I was told a 3rd is all but guaranteed. Yet again, with the climate of government entities like DOGE and more, this isn't for show IMO.



My brother had PAT III batteries around the DOHA National Gas Facility and the main refinery in Saudi Arabia when he was there over a decade ago. His THAAD was in Israel at the time.

Little known fact that I didn't know until then. In times of conflict, Army Air Defense and Naval Air Defense come under the command of our Air Force during said conflicts. When my brother arrived he was dotted line to an Army Brigadier General, but reported directly to an Air Force 3 star while there.
US PAT batteries ONLY protect US resources. We've never had PAT batteries in Doha protecting at Qatari assets.

There aren't more carriers coming.

I'm curious on where all the tankers came to refuel 100 fighters for a strike.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,778
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Yes. It is well known/discussed within Israel.








Netanyahu and co hate the families of the hostages, and the latter routinely protest against Netanyahu. (Mizrahi Jews, who make up the backbone of Likud, also hate Holocaust survivors but that is a story for another day)
When my secure network blocks the links you post....that tells you the credibility of the source.
 

Dungeon09

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Dec 1, 2021
6,907
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Yes. It is well known/discussed within Israel.








Netanyahu and co hate the families of the hostages, and the latter routinely protest against Netanyahu. (Mizrahi Jews, who make up the backbone of Likud, also hate Holocaust survivors but that is a story for another day)
The irony of the American far right pointing at the Israeli center and left as evidence of “nice Israel” to provide cover for their actual fellow travelers on the Israeli far right would be really funny if it weren’t for the human cost.
 

GDead_Tiger

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Dec 7, 2021
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Iran and the Shia Caliphate leadership have always had designs to get Nuclear weapons. They have ambitions of being the most powerful Caliphate as well, which is partially why Saudi hates them. This was happening at some point whether we went into Iraq or not.
Islam, Sunni vs Shia, plays a role, but a lot of it is purely political/secular because Shi'a Muslims are an oppressed minority in many Arab states. You also have the Arab vs Persian ethnic rivalry. The House of Saud is also a bunch of upjumped rednecks who want to be a major power. Iran is a threat to them. Both in terms of regional hegemony but also because the current Iranian state exists because Islamic revolutionaries overthrew an oppressive monarchy. That scares the House of Saud
 

GDead_Tiger

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Dec 7, 2021
13,060
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The irony of the American far right pointing at the Israeli center and left as evidence of “nice Israel” to provide cover for their actual fellow travelers on the Israeli far right would be really funny if it weren’t for the human cost.
There basically is no Israeli left left. Liberal Zionism is dead outside of the United States
 

GDead_Tiger

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Dec 7, 2021
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Israeli shitlibs then? The war in Gaza and Netanyahu admin are deeply unpopular within Israel.
Well part of the issue is Netanyahu's unpopularity is partially with the far-right Irgun terrorist types who think he isn't going far enough
 
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Dungeon09

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Well part of the issue is Netanyahu's unpopularity is partially with the far-right Irgun terrorist types who think he isn't going far enough
The Bush administration faced a lot of the same on the American far right during the Iraq war. I think there’s a lot of parallels there honestly. There’s still a sizeable proportion of Israeli populous who just want the hostages home and view the continuation of the war as antithetical to those goals.
 
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HunterPKP

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US PAT batteries ONLY protect US resources. We've never had PAT batteries in Doha protecting at Qatari assets.

There aren't more carriers coming.

I'm curious on where all the tankers came to refuel 100 fighters for a strike.

Your first statement is not accurate at all. My brother had Brigade Command of the 69th ADA in the Middle East for over a year and we did have PAT batteries protecting critical infrastructure over there that was not our own. My brother had zero reason to fabricate that.

I've heard 3 strike groups, but maybe you're right there.

I have no idea on how they used tankers, but here's confirmation on over 100 planes used.

 

leetp

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Dec 6, 2021
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How? An important part of their annexation of Gaza is kicking out the Palestinians. Easier to do when you can invade and move them out. Their West Bank annexation is similar, settlers are kicking Palestinians off their land and homes
Why do they have to kick out the Palestinians? Plenty of Palestinian Arabs and Palestinian Jews live in Israel and Gaza.
 

GDead_Tiger

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Why do they have to kick out the Palestinians? Plenty of Palestinian Arabs and Palestinian Jews live in Israel and Gaza.
Because they have deeply racist attitudes towards Palestinians. Palestinians live under military law while actual Israelis live under civilian law in Israel. They're also evicting Palestinians in the West Bank.
 
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HunterPKP

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Hmmm

I've only been a AFCENT air defense planner for more than 12 years. WTF do I know.

That's great. My brother was deployed there from 2010 to 2011 before joining Space & Missile Defense Command for his last assignment before getting out. He would have zero reason to lie about it unless UAE, Saudi, and Qatar had already purchased their own and we had oversight.
 

P. Marlowe

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Dec 7, 2009
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Because they have deeply racist attitudes towards Palestinians. Palestinians live under military law while actual Israelis live under civilian law in Israel. They're also evicting Palestinians in the West Bank.
Since 1990, the Palestinian population in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem collectively has increased 161%. Growth rate has been about 2.3% per year over the last 5 years. Not sure how we’re defining ethnic cleansing or genocide, but that doesn’t really meet the definition of either.
 

Jhstans86

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We've told Israel we will protect them. Therefore, I think there will be a degree of collaboration. It was our intel gleaned from UKR/Russia that let them know the S300/400s were dogshit and they should be able to attack Iran without fear. Over 100 Israeli planes used in that attack. All returned without a scratch. There will be a degree of collaboration.

I don't want war, but Iran's gotten way too big for their britches so to speak. My wish list if this goes forward.

1. Total obliteration of their Nuclear facilities.
2. Destruction of the QUDs and Special Forces. They help train all their proxies. Take away that.
3. Destruction of any offensive capabilities of the Navy.
4. Further destruction of all Military Critical Infrastructure (I'm looking at you missile bases)



I hope you're right to a degree. I just don't see it. It costs nearly 165k an hour to operate 1 B2 bomber. We aren't taking 6 over there for show. A 7th will leave HNL at some point and join them. Supposedly 5-6 B52s on the ground. More C17s every single day and now as @BionicTiger said 5-6 C5s. Planefinder had a line of C5s leave Dover this morning as well. They've since turned off their Transponders.

It costs 6.5MM on average per day to operate a Carrier Strike Group. Two for certain will be there and I was told a 3rd is all but guaranteed. Yet again, with the climate of government entities like DOGE and more, this isn't for show IMO.



My brother had PAT III batteries around the DOHA National Gas Facility and the main refinery in Saudi Arabia when he was there over a decade ago. His THAAD was in Israel at the time.

Little known fact that I didn't know until then. In times of conflict, Army Air Defense and Naval Air Defense come under the command of our Air Force during said conflicts. When my brother arrived he was dotted line to an Army Brigadier General, but reported directly to an Air Force 3 star while there.
Correct. In joint air defense, command normally falls under the Joint Force Air Component Commander (JFACC), usually an Air Force general. This is dependent on which branch has a preponderance of air assets in the AO.
 

Jhstans86

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US PAT batteries ONLY protect US resources. We've never had PAT batteries in Doha protecting at Qatari assets.

There aren't more carriers coming.

I'm curious on where all the tankers came to refuel 100 fighters for a strike.
As part of the agreement with Qatar to have Patriot in their country, some of the units defend their US asset as well as about half the city of Doha.
 
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Jhstans86

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You are correct
Your first statement is not accurate at all. My brother had Brigade Command of the 69th ADA in the Middle East for over a year and we did have PAT batteries protecting critical infrastructure over there that was not our own. My brother had zero reason to fabricate that.

I've heard 3 strike groups, but maybe you're right there.

I have no idea on how they used tankers, but here's confirmation on over 100 planes used.

You are correct. There are active US patriot batteries defending parts of Doha and other areas.
 

tigerjohn14

Heisman
Dec 14, 2005
5,179
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I'd say that is shooting for a fairy tale...

That is a recipe for disaster. Clean energy sounds good until it is used by terrorists. no way you can think this is a real possibility. And even if it was who's paying for it?
It is a fairy tale. Nuclear fuel access could solve the world’s energy crisis in one of two ways:

1. Low cost renewable energy access for all.
2. Thermonuclear war eliminating Homo sapiens off the face of the Earth.

There are too many bad folks out there, not just Islamic terrorist groups, to deregulate.

I know a guy that works for a medical products irradiation company. Anytime there is a hurricane watch/warning within 100 miles of their facility, Homeland Security shows up to walk through their security plan….and they don’t have anything as dangerous as Uranium or Plutonium onsite.
 

Jhstans86

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Wouldn’t need one. It’s 2500 miles from the strait of Hormuz to DG, roughly. They aren’t going to strike DG, regardless.
If you are referencing a space launched vehicles converted to ballistic missiles then yes, however we’ve yet to see that scenario used. The vast majority of their missile arsenal are SRBMs and MRBMs that aren’t going to reach out past 3000 km
 
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BigPapaWhit

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An observation...American politicians seem to have borrowed from the Zionist playbook. Any criticism of Israel policy risk being labeled Anti-Semitic. Any criticism of far-left policies risks being labeled racists. Any criticism of far-right programs risk being labeled Woke. Much like this thread rather than seek understanding many just come here to throw grenades from what used to be called a soap box. I would think it more akin to concrete boots because of their immovable position.

Look, I’m a bleeding heart Catholic. We’re never going to see eye to eye on this

@Spencer_York you don't have to be a martyr on this board to prove your Catholic bona fides good sir. I do admire your willingness to stand up for the little guy. No need to be Saint Sebastian.

Those that refused to leave for whatever reasons they had were winners of the Darwin Awards. I'm actually very angry at the folks who refused to leave. Especially those with CHILDREN.
Where should they go? What country has opened their doors to them? They have been fenced in and often denied freedom of movement. The US for one is closing its doors. Some have called what is going on in Israel and Palestine genocide others may sanitize it by calling it gentrification. History is littered with stories of persecuted people fleeing "home" that found doors closed to them. If anyone Jews should empathize. Modern period is littered with displaced groups trying to survive: Uyghurs in China, Muslims in post-Colonial India, Algerians in Algeria, Jews in 1930s Europe, the Armenians.

edited for grammar.
 
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HunterPKP

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Nov 11, 2004
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An observation...American politicians seem to have borrowed from the Zionist playbook. Any criticism of Israel policy risk being labeled Anti-Semitic. Any criticism of far-left policies risks being labeled racists. Any criticism of far-right programs risk being labeled Woke. Much like this thread rather than seek understanding many just come here to throw grenades from what used to be called a soap box. I would think it more akin to concrete boots because of their immovable position.



@Spencer_York you don't have to be a martyr on this board to prove your Catholic bonafides good sir. I do admire your willingness to stand up for the little guy. No need to be Saint Sebastian.


Where should they go? What country has opened there doors to them? They have been fenced in and often denied freedom of movement. The US for one is closing its doors. Some have called what is going on in Israel and Palestine genocide others may sanitize it by calling it gentrification. History is littered with stories of persecuted people fleeing "home" that founds doors closed to them. If anyone Jews should emphasize. Modern period is littered with displaced groups trying to survive: Uyghurs in China, Muslims in post-Colonial India, Algerians in Algeria, Jews in 1930s Europe, the Armenians.

I don't know man, but get out of Gaza. If that means you've gotta sleep on the ground by the Egyptian border you do it for the sake of your family. Just waiting for doom isn't a reasonable choice.
 

HunterPKP

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If you are referencing a space launched vehicles converted to ballistic missiles then yes, however we’ve yet to see that scenario used. The vast majority of their missile arsenal are SRBMs and MRBMs that aren’t going to reach out past 3000 km

Even the ones that can are NOT accurate. Hell, the SRBMs and MRBMs launched at Israel months ago had much closer targets and only a runway at an Air Force base took damage.
 
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BigPapaWhit

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I don't know man, but get out of Gaza. If that means you've gotta sleep on the ground by the Egyptian border you do it for the sake of your family. Just waiting for doom isn't a reasonable choice.

I hear you. I hope that I would have the strength to do what you suggest. However the frog in the simmering pot of water and few million Jews in the 1930s raises some doubts.
 

P. Marlowe

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Dec 7, 2009
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If you are referencing a space launched vehicles converted to ballistic missiles then yes, however we’ve yet to see that scenario used. The vast majority of their missile arsenal are SRBMs and MRBMs that aren’t going to reach out past 3000 km
Correct. We also don’t know the real operational range of the soumar cruise missile or newer tech. Thought to be about 3,000-3500 km, but that isn’t a concrete known. That would be the only option they have that MIGHT have the range to reach DG from Iran. I very seriously doubt it has the range to get close or the capability. But, without knowing for sure, I wouldn’t say they can’t in absolute terms. That was my only point.
 

LUV DEM TIGERS

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We've got 6 B2 bombers at Diego Garcia. 1 more to arrive this week. B52s are also on station there now. Over 10 C17s that are obviously transporting munitions for said bombers. Nearly 10 KC135 tankers. This is NOT a show of force. This is guarantee of force.
Otherwise known as "The Rock". I was there for a short time in '86. Resupply ship.
 
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HunterPKP

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So, if we do bomb Iran, is it the beginning of WW3?

I have no idea. I don't think anyone knows that, but if it happens, there is belief that the reward for ending their nuclear program outweighs the risk of doing so.
 

USMClemson2007

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Well they’ve done tons of arial bombing in Gaza, have you seen pictures of the place?
When the population you’re claiming is the target of “ethnic cleansing” has grown over the last 20 years, the argument for ethnic cleansing is self-defeating.
Did you look at pictures of Fallujah after November 2004? What about Nasiriyah? Ramadi? All were subjected to intense airstrikes and combat. We destroyed significant portions of those cities fighting an enemy that had not dug tunnels for the last 20 years like Hamas has in Gaza.
 

USMClemson2007

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How? An important part of their annexation of Gaza is kicking out the Palestinians. Easier to do when you can invade and move them out. Their West Bank annexation is similar, settlers are kicking Palestinians off their land and homes
Kicking out Palestinians is not the key to annexation of Gaza. If the Palestinians put down their guns there would be peace. If the Israelis put down their guns they would be wiped off the map. There is a significant Arab Muslim population in Israel that lives peacefully with their neighbors. There are zero Jews in Gaza because the Israeli government moved them out and allowed Gaza the ability to self-govern in 2007 (pretty sure this is the correct year). They promptly put the terrorist organization Hamas in charge. As long as Hamas exists, there will not be peace in that region.
 

HunterPKP

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Kicking out Palestinians is not the key to annexation of Gaza. If the Palestinians put down their guns there would be peace. If the Israelis put down their guns they would be wiped off the map. There is a significant Arab Muslim population in Israel that lives peacefully with their neighbors. There are zero Jews in Gaza because the Israeli government moved them out and allowed Gaza the ability to self-govern in 2007 (pretty sure this is the correct year). They promptly put the terrorist organization Hamas in charge. As long as Hamas exists, there will not be peace in that region.

To further add to this. Israel has offered a two state solution 5 or 6 times. The Palestinians have rejected it every single time. I will not agree with anyone that thinks Israel is the problem here.
 

USMClemson2007

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To further add to this. Israel has offered a two state solution 5 or 6 times. The Palestinians have rejected it every single time. I will not agree with anyone that thinks Israel is the problem here.
And to add more…

The Israelis offered control of Gaza to Egypt and the Egyptians declined. Even fellow Muslims know Gaza is a terrorist hell hole. They offered Jordan control of the West Bank and that was declined also, and the queen of Jordan is Palestinian! Every country in the region understands the Palestinians are a destabilizing population, so much that fellow Muslims won’t take them in.
 

nmerritt11

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Kicking out Palestinians is not the key to annexation of Gaza. If the Palestinians put down their guns there would be peace. If the Israelis put down their guns they would be wiped off the map. There is a significant Arab Muslim population in Israel that lives peacefully with their neighbors. There are zero Jews in Gaza because the Israeli government moved them out and allowed Gaza the ability to self-govern in 2007 (pretty sure this is the correct year). They promptly put the terrorist organization Hamas in charge. As long as Hamas exists, there will not be peace in that region.

The bolded part is one of the best ways I've seen it put. Simple and accurate.