Pray for Jamica

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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I've been in the eyewall of quite a few hurricanes over the past 30 years (by choice). Nothing this strong, but I've taken on 7 majors during that time. I have to say, being in the eyewall of ANY major hurricane is a power unlike anything on earth. It's not a power I would want to take on beside the ocean in a poorly built structure.

They have a very strong "god will protect us" mentality, which is a good thing to have as long as you match that faith with strong, well thought out decisions of your own free will. That second part does not seem to be the case in Jamaica, or in many other lower income type areas in the US and especially in the Caribbean. God will not just magically protect you in areas prone to 15+ storm surge and no escape route. It still amazes me every single time to witness the raw power and just how fast water rises around the eyewall, and it's a type of power everyone needs to witness (in a safe manner). I think it would save lives in times like these.

I'm almost more worried about mudslides than 150+ sustained and storm surge though. Hope they make it through.
This is what I find hard to wrap my head around. I have been to Jamaica, and I don't know where you can be that's high enough to avoid the storm surge, but not on a slope subject to a landslide, and also not subject to flash flooding. And has a structure that is possibly safe in 150-200 mph winds. I assume those areas are where their bigger cities are, but it seems like everybody outside of those are going to have a hell of a guessing game to play.
 
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Nov 16, 2005
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As if the storm surge and wind weren’t life threatening. How bout some crocodiles.

 
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L4Dawg

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I've been watching streaming video from Montego Bay. It's been pretty rough, and that's on the north coast of Jamaica, not the south coast where it made landfall.
 

Xenomorph

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In what I think is a first...a hurricane hunter plane had to abort the mission. The turbulence was exceeding the plane's limit.
From Jeff Masters’ blog on Yale Climate Connections:

Yesterday morning, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N42RF (Kermit) was forced to abort their flight after two eye penetrations into Melissa, after encountering extreme turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. After returning to base and being inspected for damage, that aircraft returned to make the final penetration into Melissa this morning, before the hurricane hit Jamaica. Yesterday’s aborted mission was only the fourth time I’m aware of that the NOAA Hurricane Hunters have had to abort a flight because of extreme turbulence (the others: Emily in 1987, Hugo in 1989, and Felix in 2007). I had the dubious honor of being the flight meteorologist on two of those flights, Emily in 1987 and Hugo in 1989.

….I’ve read some stuff on the Hugo flight in ‘89. They all thought they were going to die and the plane never flew again due to stress on the airframe.
 
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RocketDawg

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I have a feeling that the name Melissa for a hurricane will be retired going forth.
 

Hugh's Burner Phone

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From Jeff Masters’ blog on Yale Climate Connections:

Yesterday morning, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N42RF (Kermit) was forced to abort their flight after two eye penetrations into Melissa, after encountering extreme turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. After returning to base and being inspected for damage, that aircraft returned to make the final penetration into Melissa this morning, before the hurricane hit Jamaica. Yesterday’s aborted mission was only the fourth time I’m aware of that the NOAA Hurricane Hunters have had to abort a flight because of extreme turbulence (the others: Emily in 1987, Hugo in 1989, and Felix in 2007). I had the dubious honor of being the flight meteorologist on two of those flights, Emily in 1987 and Hugo in 1989.

….I’ve read some stuff on the Hugo flight in ‘89. They all thought they were going to die and the plane never flew again due to stress on the airframe.
I don't like to fly on a good day. Not a snowball's chance in hell you get me on a plane going into something like that.
 

RocketDawg

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Just saw some reports on the possible strength of Melissa at landfall. Looks like some trees were stripped of bark - computer analysis indicates possible 215 mph (vs 185 reported) winds with 250 mph gusts. That's essentially a monstrous EF-5 tornado that lasts a long time. Even 185 would be an EF-4 tornado.

Maybe a new Cat 6 hurricane should be defined.
 

Darryl Steight

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Now just sit back and enjoy the flight...


Woman driver**

I kid, but she's a helluva lot braver than I am. I want no part of that. I've jumped out of a plane before, bungeed off a tall building, and lots of other stupid stuff in my life... but one thing I promise I'll never do is purposely get in a plane under those circumstances.
 
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