Auburn
at Vandy
Alabama
at Arkansas
Missouri
Can we go 8-7 down the stretch?
at Vandy
Alabama
at Arkansas
Missouri
Can we go 8-7 down the stretch?
RPI sitting at 49. Remaining schedule..
- Thread starter Xenomorph
- Start date
Maybe. It’ll take at least 14 SEC wins to make the tournament. It’ll be close. With our weak schedule it’s going to be very difficult to improve that RPI. Warren Nolan predicts us at 10-20 SEC, with an RPI of 90. I think he’s at least a couple of wins low. But that RPI will be a problem
Still should be fired even if we make the tournament
I don’t see how we can gain any ground against Mizzou and Auburn without a sweep And that may not even move the needle with Mizzou. RPI likely goes down Tuesday if we play the Alcorn game.
We just don’t have the arms or the bats to go on a big run I don’t think. Just too inconsistent on both sides.
Maybe they’ll surprise me.
Maybe they’ll surprise me.
Even if our arms or bats go on a run, we still have this coaching staff waiting in the wings to blow any given game. Any surprises won’t be pleasant, barring a massive turnaround from the coaching staff.
This weekend has shaken all confidence I had in this team. It now feels like they’ll miss the tourney and Lemonis will be gone.
Which begs the question, why did we ever schedule this game to begin with?
I think we go 7-8 in the back half too, which with our RPI is probably not enough to get in without a win or two in Hoover.
The Alcorn game is an abomination and should’ve never been scheduled. They are 2-25 with an RPI of 302. An absolute joke to be playing this team.
The Alcorn game is an abomination and should’ve never been scheduled. They are 2-25 with an RPI of 302. An absolute joke to be playing this team.
I hope we can. There's a lot of panic on the board tonight. I am sure we hope it goes some way soon. It feels like we are a rudderless ship right now. We have had three years to build up arms that we don't have right now,
I don’t have any confidence we’ll make the SEC tourney and, even if we don’t, I *really* don’t have any confidence we’ll get rid of Lemonis.
Not that it’s any consolation but we aren’t even close to missing Hoover yet.
Our hitting will make one barner and one mizzou pitcher look like a Cy young winner.
We always do this **** right at the time when PRI starts becoming a consideration. I've bitched about it for years but they continue to schedule SWAC schools. We played a bunch of them a few years ago.
Even if we did our RPI can't recover to the level we need it to.
Alcorn is TURRIBLE too. They are 2-26 overall, 1-13 in the SWAC for heavens sake. They've lost 10 in a row, how can that help us at all?
The RPI will absolutely be fine at 15-15 or 14-16.
Getting to that point is another story.
The Warren Nolan predictor is completely worthless. There is absolutely no point in even discussing it. Before a single game was played, it said we’d be something comical like 6-24 in the SEC. After the UGA series, said we’d be 16-14. Now just 3 games later (1 of which we won on the road), it says 10-20. Literally took 6 previously predicted wins away after just 2 straight losses. Makes no sense.
Completely agree. I thought it was at least 2 wins high at 16-14 & at least 2 wins low now. The swings are ridiculous.
Agreed. Considering that we just lost 2 of 3 to OM with one being a run rule, it's hard for me to assume that we're going to get 2 of 3 from Auburn, Bama, and Missouri. On the flip side, maybe we steal one from Arkansas, but considering the gaping holes that we have in the bullpen and back half of the lineup, we have to be damn near perfect elsewhere to win any SEC series.
Ive got us winning all 3 home series. Missouri and Auburn are bad, Alabama is an unknown. But that would be 6 wins. Not crazy to think we actually sweep 1 of those.
That means we just need to avoid a sweep at either Vandy or Arkansas.
That said, this is the time of the year weve totally fell on our faces the last two seasons. Need to avoid that. 5-10 last season, 3-12 two season ago were the SEC marks in the final 5 series.
We should win at least 5 from Aub Bama Mizzou, probably 6, then get 1 on the road from either Vandy or Ark. that gets us to 14 & solidly on the bubble.
His algo, which is true of any algorithm predicting games in a series format, is tough. If the algorithm says we likely lose to a team, it calculates that three times. He has tried to adjust it over the years but it's just not possible.
You need to get eight between these:
Auburn
at Vandy
Alabama
at Arkansas
Missouri
2 against Auburn
2 against Alabama
2 against Missouri
and then somehow take 1 at Vanderbilt and Arkansas.
What does that do to RPI
2-1 against Auburn is worth 6 spots in the RPI (so thats 43)
1-2 against Vanderbilt is worth 1 spot (42(
2-1 against Alabama is worth 5 spots (37)
1-2 against Arkansas is worth 2 spots (35)
2-1 against Missouri is -2 spots (37)
Where can we pick up something?
3-0 against Auburn instead of 2-1 is 2 more spots
2-1 against Vanderbilt instead of 1-2 is 3 more spots
3-0 against Alabama instead of 2-1 is 2 more spots
2-1 against Arkansas instead of 1-2 is 3 more spots
3-0 against Missouri instead of 2-1 is 2 more spots
13-2 to finish is highly unlikely, but would appear our ceiling is an RPI of 25.
Traditionally, I'd like to see us with a top 40 RPI and at least a 14-16 SEC record, which seems doable.
Youve got to add in the mid-week games remaining that are going to hurt our RPI.
The Alcorn and North Alabama games are going to damage the RPI even if we win.
People on this board told me our Non Conference schedule was fine. They are wrong. For example our RPI will drop 7 spots tonight by beating Alcorn. Now it may deviate up or down more depending on how others do today, but thats what a poor schedule will do for you.
The hope I am clinging to is finishing in the top part of the best league in the country trumps RPI... but last season the selection committee valued RPI a great deal.
If we win great! If we lose, we get a new coach. It's a win/win!
Need to subtract about 7 spots for our win vs Alcorn tonight. We’re not going to have a top 40 RPI with 14 SEC wins. And if we lose another non-conference game along the way, it’s gonna really get tough.
Yes last season both Kansas State out of the Big 12 and Notre Dame out of the ACC--- both power baseball conferences---- were passed over by teams that finished below them in the standing due to RPI.
Kansas State (13-11, 53 RPI) was passed over for Oklahoma (11-13, 40 RPI)-- Kansas State also swept Oklahoma as well. So keep that in mind for your Head-to-Head
Notre Dame (15-15, 58 RPI) was passed over for North Carolina State (13-16, 28 RPI)
Using that as a gauge its safe to say that Georgia (11 RPI) and Alabama (18 RPI) and probably even Ole Miss (28 RPI) all are farther up the pecking order than we are-- despite conference record.
Kansas State (13-11, 53 RPI) was passed over for Oklahoma (11-13, 40 RPI)-- Kansas State also swept Oklahoma as well. So keep that in mind for your Head-to-Head
Notre Dame (15-15, 58 RPI) was passed over for North Carolina State (13-16, 28 RPI)
Using that as a gauge its safe to say that Georgia (11 RPI) and Alabama (18 RPI) and probably even Ole Miss (28 RPI) all are farther up the pecking order than we are-- despite conference record.
Which means he should just stop publishing it. Especially before the season even begins and you have absolutely zero clue who is any good and who isn’t.
The nonconference schedule will be fine if we win 14-15 games in SEC play….which is all you can ask for. SEC teams don’t need an OOC full of juggernauts. You just can’t load it up with boat anchors like we did 2 years ago.
If you think our current OOC slate with an SOS of 162 is bad, consider that 2 years ago it was 275. 113 spots worse than we are now. Let that sink in. We literally would have needed 16-17 wins just to make a regional. Arkansas had a similarly poor SOS, dominated it, won 18 SEC games…..and didn’t even host.
