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So what are your predictions for tomorrow?

LafayetteBear

LafayetteBear

All-American
Nov 30, 2009
31,441
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Not a whole lot being voted on tomorrow, given that it is November of an odd numbered year, but there are a few electoral races. The races I believe are up for a vote are:

1. Proposition 50 in California.
2. Governor of Virginia
3. Governor of New Jersey
4. Mayor of New York

I'm sure there are a few other notable electoral races that are being decided tomorrow. Please feel free to mention them, and/or to opine on how you think the above 4 races will turn out. Here are my predictions:

1. Prop 50 wins by a large margin. (I say this because polling strongly suggests it. But you never know.)

2. Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears. (I say this because recent polls had Spanberger with an 11 point lead.)

3. Mikie Sherrill over Jack Ciatterelli. (I am not confident about this particular one, because recent polls show Sherrill with a modest 4% to 5% lead.)

4. Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo by a large margin. (Cuomo needs to retire. This vote will likely do the trick. Polls have Mamdani ahead by double digits.) My favorite thing about Mamdani winning will be the wailing and gnashing of teeth by the MAGA crowd over "that Commie Mamdani." Simply hilarious pearl clutching by the alt-right.

Surely there is SOME electoral race that the Republicans are favored to win tomorrow!
 
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baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
1,880
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LafayetteBear said:
Not a whole lot being voted on tomorrow, given that it is November of an odd numbered year, but there are a few electoral races. The races I believe are up for a vote are:

1. Proposition 50 in California.
2. Governor of Virginia
3. Governor of New Jersey
4. Mayor of New York

I'm sure there are a few other notable electoral races that are being decided tomorrow. Please feel free to mention them, and/or to opine on how you think the above 4 races will turn out. Here are my predictions:

1. Prop 50 wins by a large margin. (I say this because polling strongly suggests it. But you never know.)

2. Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears. (I say this because recent polls had Spanberger with an 11 point lead.)

3. Mikie Sherrill over Jack Ciatterelli. (I am not confident about this particular one, because recent polls show Sherrill with a modest 4% to 5% lead.)

4. Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo by a large margin. (Cuomo needs to retire. This vote will likely do the trick. Polls have Mamdani ahead by double digits.) My favorite thing about Mamdani winning will be the wailing and gnashing of teeth by the MAGA crowd over "that Commie Mamdani." Simply hilarious pearl clutching by the alt-right.

Surely there is SOME electoral race that the Republicans are favored to win tomorrow!
Click to expand...
I think the Mamdani race sort of mirrors the trump-harris election. People don't want either, but they know Cuomo and don't want that again. Mamdani has great promises for those at the lower end of the economic spectrum at the expense of those at the higher end. A vote for Cuomo maintains the status quo of NY politics, Mamdani offers hope (to some). I'm not sure republicans will weep and gnash If Mamdani wins. A lot of those I talk to, obviously an older segment of the population, are interested in the results of the Mamdani policies. I have children and grandchildren and the parents would love to have free childcare and lower grocery prices. But they are leery of where the money comes from to pay for it. It sounds good to "tax the rich", but as you know there are plenty of ways to shelter income - something as simple as a deferred compensation plan - and you can bet that the high earners will make use of those shelters.

VA, NJ and California are democrat states, so any republican wins would be upsets, IMO

Personally, I'm interested to see the results of a Mamdani win. Things never work out exactly as planned and mamdani's plans will hit some walls and the people at the bottom will want results. I have seen some socialist type plans - our own social security - and somehow the promises don't seem to match the reality. But, this time will be different:)
 
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scotchtiger

Heisman
Dec 15, 2005
134,262
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No clue. Haven’t followed a single race or vote for tomorrow other than a bit about Mamdani, mainly because you can’t get away from it and they talk about it a good bit on squawk box.
 
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baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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scotchtiger said:
No clue. Haven’t followed a single race or vote for tomorrow other than a bit about Mamdani, mainly because you can’t get away from it and they talk about it a good bit on squawk box.
Click to expand...
I think folks that work in NYC but live in other state smight be in for a surprise. Would it surprise anyone if Mamdani tries for a work tax, I.e., if you work in NYC you will be taxed on that income even if you live in another state. DC tried this years ago and congress beat it down. NYC workers won't have Congress to bail them out.
 
MTTiger19

MTTiger19

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Sep 10, 2008
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Who cares, those four states are borderline brain dead. California is a disaster, NYC is going to elect a Muslim socialist, VA has a candidate for AG that openly advocated for the MURDER of his opponent and their CHILDREN. Idgaf what happens to any of them. I hope they get what they deserve, I have nothing in common with any of them, don’t want to see or hear about it and do not care. I just hope they get exactly what they deserve, that’s my only interest.
 
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PawPride

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Nov 28, 2004
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baltimorened said:
I think folks that work in NYC but live in other state smight be in for a surprise. Would it surprise anyone if Mamdani tries for a work tax, I.e., if you work in NYC you will be taxed on that income even if you live in another state. DC tried this years ago and congress beat it down. NYC workers won't have Congress to bail them out.
Click to expand...
Is this something similar to the Jock tax for pro athletes? Seems like something that would require some form of state or federal approval before it could be enacted?
 
S

scotchtiger

Heisman
Dec 15, 2005
134,262
21,786
113
baltimorened said:
I think folks that work in NYC but live in other state smight be in for a surprise. Would it surprise anyone if Mamdani tries for a work tax, I.e., if you work in NYC you will be taxed on that income even if you live in another state. DC tried this years ago and congress beat it down. NYC workers won't have Congress to bail them out.
Click to expand...

I would be surprised if he doesn’t try to find new ways to tax people. He’s a redistribution guy to the core.
 
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baltimorened

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PawPride said:
Is this something similar to the Jock tax for pro athletes? Seems like something that would require some form of state or federal approval before it could be enacted?
Click to expand...
you might be right about approvals. DC is unique in that it "belongs" to Congress and needs congressional approval for something like this. But, if the flight from NYC comes true, even by half, The New government will have to come up with funding from some source.
 
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bdgan

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Oct 12, 2021
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LafayetteBear said:
Not a whole lot being voted on tomorrow, given that it is November of an odd numbered year, but there are a few electoral races. The races I believe are up for a vote are:

1. Proposition 50 in California.
2. Governor of Virginia
3. Governor of New Jersey
4. Mayor of New York

I'm sure there are a few other notable electoral races that are being decided tomorrow. Please feel free to mention them, and/or to opine on how you think the above 4 races will turn out. Here are my predictions:

1. Prop 50 wins by a large margin. (I say this because polling strongly suggests it. But you never know.)

2. Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears. (I say this because recent polls had Spanberger with an 11 point lead.)

3. Mikie Sherrill over Jack Ciatterelli. (I am not confident about this particular one, because recent polls show Sherrill with a modest 4% to 5% lead.)

4. Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo by a large margin. (Cuomo needs to retire. This vote will likely do the trick. Polls have Mamdani ahead by double digits.) My favorite thing about Mamdani winning will be the wailing and gnashing of teeth by the MAGA crowd over "that Commie Mamdani." Simply hilarious pearl clutching by the alt-right.

Surely there is SOME electoral race that the Republicans are favored to win tomorrow!
Click to expand...
Good predictions but bad for the country IMO
 
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bdgan

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
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baltimorened said:
I think the Mamdani race sort of mirrors the trump-harris election. People don't want either, but they know Cuomo and don't want that again. Mamdani has great promises for those at the lower end of the economic spectrum at the expense of those at the higher end. A vote for Cuomo maintains the status quo of NY politics, Mamdani offers hope (to some). I'm not sure republicans will weep and gnash If Mamdani wins. A lot of those I talk to, obviously an older segment of the population, are interested in the results of the Mamdani policies. I have children and grandchildren and the parents would love to have free childcare and lower grocery prices. But they are leery of where the money comes from to pay for it. It sounds good to "tax the rich", but as you know there are plenty of ways to shelter income - something as simple as a deferred compensation plan - and you can bet that the high earners will make use of those shelters.

VA, NJ and California are democrat states, so any republican wins would be upsets, IMO

Personally, I'm interested to see the results of a Mamdani win. Things never work out exactly as planned and mamdani's plans will hit some walls and the people at the bottom will want results. I have seen some socialist type plans - our own social security - and somehow the promises don't seem to match the reality. But, this time will be different:)
Click to expand...
I think Mamdani is horrible but I don't think it's the end of NYC as some claim. He won't be able to get most of the thing he promises approved.
 
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dpic73

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
24,203
18,354
113
The only one that concerns me is NJ because it appears it will be close and since Ciatarelli has tied himself so closely to Trump, I'm interested to see how voters accept/reject him. Looks like there are some shenanigans going on there today to disrupt the vote as well.

 
LafayetteBear

LafayetteBear

All-American
Nov 30, 2009
31,441
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113
MTTiger19 said:
I hope they get what they deserve, I have nothing in common with any of them, don’t want to see or hear about it and do not care. I just hope they get exactly what they deserve, that’s my only interest.
Click to expand...
I gotta ask. Just what do you think they deserve?
 
A

Aardvark86

Junior
Oct 12, 2021
255
232
43
LafayetteBear said:
Not a whole lot being voted on tomorrow, given that it is November of an odd numbered year, but there are a few electoral races. The races I believe are up for a vote are:

1. Proposition 50 in California.
2. Governor of Virginia
3. Governor of New Jersey
4. Mayor of New York

I'm sure there are a few other notable electoral races that are being decided tomorrow. Please feel free to mention them, and/or to opine on how you think the above 4 races will turn out. Here are my predictions:

1. Prop 50 wins by a large margin. (I say this because polling strongly suggests it. But you never know.)

2. Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears. (I say this because recent polls had Spanberger with an 11 point lead.)

3. Mikie Sherrill over Jack Ciatterelli. (I am not confident about this particular one, because recent polls show Sherrill with a modest 4% to 5% lead.)

4. Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo by a large margin. (Cuomo needs to retire. This vote will likely do the trick. Polls have Mamdani ahead by double digits.) My favorite thing about Mamdani winning will be the wailing and gnashing of teeth by the MAGA crowd over "that Commie Mamdani." Simply hilarious pearl clutching by the alt-right.

Surely there is SOME electoral race that the Republicans are favored to win tomorrow!
Click to expand...
Spanberger definitely wins; the interesting one in VA is Miyares, who I predict will lose even though he shouldn't.

In my mind, honestly, none of these are races the Ds' should have even a remote chance of losing, though they will be spun as "telling" victories.

Beyond that, my prediction for tomorrow is that SCOTUS will ultimate rule that "regulate" does not include tariff authority (with a whiff of major questions doctrine thrown in as a rule of construction) notwithstanding the high level statutory delegation, so that they can avoid having to actually question on the merits an executive's decision to declare/invoke an emergency that he has been delegated to declare/invoke.
 
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LafayetteBear

LafayetteBear

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Nov 30, 2009
31,441
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Aardvark86 said:
Spanberger definitely wins; the interesting one in VA is Miyares, who I predict will lose even though he shouldn't.

In my mind, honestly, none of these are races the Ds' should have even a remote chance of losing, though they will be spun as "telling" victories.

Beyond that, my prediction for tomorrow is that SCOTUS will ultimate rule that "regulate" does not include tariff authority (with a whiff of major questions doctrine thrown in as a rule of construction) notwithstanding the high level statutory delegation, so that they can avoid having to actually question on the merits an executive's decision to declare/invoke an emergency that he has been delegated to declare/invoke.
Click to expand...
Is Miyares the controversial AG candidate?

IMHO, these races will not be "telling" victories unless either: (1) the Democratic candidate wins by a lot; or (2) the Republican candidate wins.
 
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firegiver

firegiver

Heisman
Sep 10, 2007
72,107
18,034
113
Please, can we just release the Epstein files now and open up the government? There was a damn plane crash today
 
LafayetteBear

LafayetteBear

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Nov 30, 2009
31,441
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113
dpic73 said:
Hahaha

Click to expand...

This really nails it. The culture war stuff on Fox is over the top. Remember when Fox ran that segment on the mating habits of panda bears? It was on the night that Biden beat Trump, if memory serves me correctly. It was either that or some other big news announcement that the Republican base hated. So Fox dutifully declined to cover it.
 
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dpic73

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
24,203
18,354
113
LafayetteBear said:
This really nails it. The culture war stuff on Fox is over the top. Remember when Fox ran that segment on the mating habits of panda bears? It was on the night that Biden beat Trump, if memory serves me correctly. It was either that or some other big news announcement that the Republican base hated. So Fox dutifully declined to cover it.
Click to expand...
This was my all-time favorite culture war moment

1762317562112.png
 
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dpic73

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
24,203
18,354
113


BREAKING NEWS: BIG BLUE WAVE ACROSS THE NATION TONIGHT!
Recap of the wins (so far)
1. Abigail Spanberger (VA-Gov)
2. Ghazala Hashmi (VA Lt-Gov)
3. Jay Jones (VA AG)
4. Mikie Sherrill (NJ Gov)
5. Michelle Wu (Boston Mayor)
6. Zohran Mamdani (NYC Mayor)
7. Andre Dickens (Atlanta Mayor)
8. Aftab Pureval (Cincy Mayor)
9. PA Supreme Court Justices
10. Maine ballot initiatives
11. Prop 50 passes in CA
 
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