I only read pg 1 of this thread, so if some of the things have been covered in pgs 2-6, I apologize.
1. Tariffs on a large, aggressive scale like this. While, it "can" work.....and if it does, then Trump deserves massive credit for doing something impressive. But the risk is YUGE. You could be risking a global trade war and recession. It's not the route I would've used, but here we are.......we'll have to see how it plays out.
2. There absolutely is a plan......but it would be foolish to come out and say it to the public. However, there are indications out there if you know where to look.
For example, look at Javier Milei in Argentina. He is a very eccentric economist who was recently elected. He made some news with the following 1' minute video.
But to explain what kind of effect he's had on Argentina, I present the following 35' min video.
This longer video does get a little bogged down in the political past of Argentina, but the gist is that Milei took over......dismantled a bunch of departments......streamlined the gov't.......removed a METRIC TON of bureaucracy and red-tape.......and put in place tariffs. He ripped the band-aid off extremely fast when he was sworn in. Things worsened during the first 6 months, but during the subsequent 6 months saw an economic boon that Argentina hadn't seen in a super long time.
Oh, and by the way Milei attended Trump's inauguration and has met with him many, many times.
Is this Trump's plan? No, clue, but it seems to have a LOT of the same tells. Will this work in the US as it has thus far in Argentina? Well, we'll see.
3. Are the Tariffs a bargaining chip or are they here to stay? My first thought is that they are mostly bargaining chips. There are already >70 countries who have already contacted the US about trade negotiations. I would expect deals to get done quickly with these countries. The issue is going to be with the big boys like China. I doubt China will back down to just the US alone. However, if the US can get trade deals in place with entities like the EU and other major countries, they can gang up on China to help force trade deals. So, I think that the vast majority of these tariffs will likely be reduced very soon.
However, Milei in Argentina did retain some tariffs to help promote growth from within.....so, I would anticipate that a good number of the Trump tariffs to stick around (but my guess is at a significantly reduced amount)
4. The notion that it takes decades to bring back factories, jobs, infrastructure, etc and therefore won't help. I don't get this line of thinking. Sure, deals can fall through, but even just the announcing of such deals is big for the US economy in general. For example, as of Oct of Biden's time in office, he was able to boast about $900 million of new investments into the US with a total of about 700,000 jobs created. He deserves praise for getting this done. Sure, it might take a decade for this money and jobs to actually come to reality, but do you think it would be better served if that money/jobs went to another country?
For some contrast, as of right now Trump has secured >$2.2 trillion worth of investments as of March 21st.
