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<blockquote data-quote="skygusty_rivals" data-source="post: 129564261" data-attributes="member: 1500287">So asking questions is twisting things around?&nbsp; If the SEC and the BIG have a 100% chance of getting in, that means that the other 3 conferences, if they are dead equal have 2 chances in 3 or a 66% chance of getting in.If the SEC has a 100 percent chance of getting in and the other 4 are dead equal, then those 4 have 3 chances in 4 or a 75% chance of getting in.All the odds across 5 conferences have to add to 400 (5X80 if they all have equal opportunity and the universe is limited to the P5 conferences)&nbsp; If the SEC has a 100 percent chance then the rest have a 3 in 4 chance or 75% of making the playoffs.&nbsp; 100+(4X75) = 400.&nbsp; If the SEC has a 95% chance then the other 4 conferences have a 76.25% chance if they are all equal&nbsp; 305/4.&nbsp; So somebody has to illustrate how the odds for one or more other conferences goes down if the BIG12 adds a CCG, how they go down more if the BIG12 adds two teams, etc.&nbsp; The odds have to add to 400,&nbsp;&nbsp; The point is, the opportunities are finite (4), you can't boost the chances of one conference getting in without reducing the chances of another.&nbsp; I'd just like to see how adding teams to the BIG12 would decrease the chances of another conference of getting in the playoffs.&nbsp; Because the system is closed and can only contain 4 teams you can't change the chances of one league without changing the chances of all the rest.&nbsp; Even if they are calculating that 8 conferences have a chance of some sort, the odds add to 400.&nbsp; 4 spots for 8 conferences means a 50% chance if they are all equal.&nbsp; More likely the SEC could have a 95% chance and the AAC could have a 5% chance.&nbsp; All the odds will still add to 400.&nbsp; So are we gaining on the ones above us or just improving our odds at the expense of the conferences below us?</blockquote>

[QUOTE="skygusty_rivals, post: 129564261, member: 1500287"] So asking questions is twisting things around? If the SEC and the BIG have a 100% chance of getting in, that means that the other 3 conferences, if they are dead equal have 2 chances in 3 or a 66% chance of getting in. If the SEC has a 100 percent chance of getting in and the other 4 are dead equal, then those 4 have 3 chances in 4 or a 75% chance of getting in. All the odds across 5 conferences have to add to 400 (5X80 if they all have equal opportunity and the universe is limited to the P5 conferences) If the SEC has a 100 percent chance then the rest have a 3 in 4 chance or 75% of making the playoffs. 100+(4X75) = 400. If the SEC has a 95% chance then the other 4 conferences have a 76.25% chance if they are all equal 305/4. So somebody has to illustrate how the odds for one or more other conferences goes down if the BIG12 adds a CCG, how they go down more if the BIG12 adds two teams, etc. The odds have to add to 400, The point is, the opportunities are finite (4), you can't boost the chances of one conference getting in without reducing the chances of another. I'd just like to see how adding teams to the BIG12 would decrease the chances of another conference of getting in the playoffs. Because the system is closed and can only contain 4 teams you can't change the chances of one league without changing the chances of all the rest. Even if they are calculating that 8 conferences have a chance of some sort, the odds add to 400. 4 spots for 8 conferences means a 50% chance if they are all equal. More likely the SEC could have a 95% chance and the AAC could have a 5% chance. All the odds will still add to 400. So are we gaining on the ones above us or just improving our odds at the expense of the conferences below us? [/QUOTE]

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