We will go 6-6...
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It took an atrocious coaching job to lose that game. We could have had a good coach go out and draw plays in the dirt on offense and won that game. Trying to run a west coast offense we didn't have the personnel for and weren't ready to execute even if we did cost us that game.TaleofTwoDogs said:
Upsets will certainly happen, and it's always possible some flukish events (like multiple special teams and defensive touchdowns) combined with coming out flat, and then tightening up could cause an upset like that with Mullen coaching, but generally an adequately coached team won't lose to a team with that much of a talent differential. The Maine loss is just not relevant to anything we have going on right now.
2010? The difference was Cam Newton
2011? The difference was headset listening
They have been about as even as two games could be.
I watched Tennessee lose to Kentucky with Kentucky playing a WR at QB last November.
Our talent level is very good. Every single guy that starts on our DL will be drafted by the NFL (Autry, Boyd, Quay, Eulls). Our Secondary is one of the SEC's best
Our LB's are very good. We have at least one RB that is NFL-bound. Russell has a chance to be a solid SEC QB.
Prepare to be surprised this year
2011? The difference was headset listening
They have been about as even as two games could be.
I watched Tennessee lose to Kentucky with Kentucky playing a WR at QB last November.
Our talent level is very good. Every single guy that starts on our DL will be drafted by the NFL (Autry, Boyd, Quay, Eulls). Our Secondary is one of the SEC's best
Our LB's are very good. We have at least one RB that is NFL-bound. Russell has a chance to be a solid SEC QB.
Prepare to be surprised this year
and at least, off the record, gotten them to confirm that they believe Auburn was somehow eavesdropping on our headset communications? That rumor has been around a while but never really substantiated.
Our OL is going to get Russell killed, and they will be the reason we go 6-6 or 7-5. With a better OL, we win eight or nine games.
It was obvious thatweren'tmentally ready for that gameand the hostilecrowdgot to us. But because of their success in close games with us, I'd giveour teama 50 percent chance to win at home this year. We must execute and play damn good defense!
Hopefully our o-line will work out for us and Tyler can show his full potential, but I really think our running game could be very special this year. IFIT IS, and everyone is healthy, teams like Troy simply won't be a problem..no matter what..we still win!
Ilike our defensive secondary but we were embarrassedin Little Rock last year. It was absolutely terrible!! Remember??Our scheme worked against us and I worry about passing offenses again this year. We need to bring some pressure for once!
7-6 or 8-4
Hopefully our o-line will work out for us and Tyler can show his full potential, but I really think our running game could be very special this year. IFIT IS, and everyone is healthy, teams like Troy simply won't be a problem..no matter what..we still win!
Ilike our defensive secondary but we were embarrassedin Little Rock last year. It was absolutely terrible!! Remember??Our scheme worked against us and I worry about passing offenses again this year. We need to bring some pressure for once!
7-6 or 8-4
the OL proves it can block and protect a QB there is NO reason to expect we will be better on offense. Setting up unrealistic expectations and then proclaiming a coach a failure when he doesn't live up to them is SO old MSU and SO you. The OL may be WAY better, but they have to prove it on the field. If they DO, this could be a decent OR better year. If not then we we struggle to match last year.
PokerDawg44 said:
I think we should end in the 7-5 to 8-4 range. Hope for better, but its hard to forget that at the end of the day, we are still Mississippi State. I like the direction we are heading but old habits die hard and its going to take more than 2 years of better football than we are used to to rid me of all bad years.
shsdawg said:
First of all, I dont know why I'm replying to your dumbass again...but I will.
LT- Clausell- is a year older, bigger, stronger, and more experienced. He will be better than last year
LG- Gabe Jackson- is an All-SEC level player
C- Dillion Day- is a year older, bigger, stronger, and more experienced. He will be better than last year
RG- Tobias Smith- is an All-SEC caliber player when healthy...we'll see how much we get out of him
RT- Damien Robinson/Charles Siddoway- both 3rd year players and should be ready to play
This year, all of our back-ups arent R-Freshmen- so that has to be better than what we had last season
Our OL will be better than last year- thats a given. We have also changed the way we practice- which includes more pass blocking and blitz pick-ups.
If you think a team with at least 12-13 future draft picks is a 6-6 team then I dont know what to tell you
the OL has proved it on the field already have they? That's good to know. I never said we were a 6-6 team, or better, or worse. I honestly don't know where we are. All I know is that if we are todo better than last year the OL has to be better. I'll wait to see where we are against Auburn before I get my hopes up, or let them down, for this year. Predictions of future draft picks are just that. You are SO old MSU that I sometimes wonder if your first name is Larry.
typical shsdawg? He will never actually make a prediction, just act like we are all stupid for having any expectations whatsoever. Then, no matter what our record is, he comes back after the season saying "I told y'all we would only win __ Games". I'm not saying I agree with C34, but to act like we should only expect to be as good as last year, maybe worse!, is down right pathetic and shows a loser mentality. If you can't see the zillion reasons for a better season this year than last year, you're an idiot. Not saying we will be, but we definitely should be better...no doubt about it.
it depends on the OL. We go as the OL goes, that is my prediction. If you idiots actually know anything about football, and that is a lot to expect from a grade school basketball coach like 34,you SHOULD know thatis how most teams go. I agree that the line on paper looks to be better than last year. Football isn't played on paper. Till we see the OL on the field against SEC opposition we just don't know.
shsdawg said:
The only logic that you possess in your entire being is circular logic. Seriously. Look up that definition, since you probably have an illegitimate alternate meaning for it, just like you do for "talent." This has been proven here many times, so I don't know why I'm bothering to point it out again right now.
Coach34 says we will be good, the OL play will be improved. Maybe not great, but better. You say "that's so Old MSU and so YOU." You must've known a different old MSU than the rest of us did. Optimism in what we CAN accomplish is not something that is historically abundant in Starkville. Of course, you wouldn't recognize any of that, because you are the exact definition of old school Starkville.
You then call Coach34 Larry Templeton for saying we will be improved up front(an argument supported by a **** ton of circumstantial evidence). Meanwhile, you argue this point with "wait and see." Basically, meaning that you haven't been paying enough attention to recognize the circumstantial evidence. Again, employing circular logic. "We're poor ole MSU and until we beat Auburn, I'm going to assume it won't and can't happen...wait and see." That's a very LT attitude you have there.
IF the fans had taken your approach...IF we hadn't bought in fully to Mullen's goals...into the ideal that we CAN be something more BEFORE he's really "proved" a dang thing...We'd still be a half empty stadium that doesn't raise enough in private donations to pay the coaching staff. Instead, we're expanding, and we're raising private donations on the same tier as the big boys. That's public record and fact. Look it up.
Here's what I know. Auburn has a pretty nasty DL. Their starting front 4 will all be drafted. Lemonier is a future first round DE. As good as any we will see in this league. Their linebackers and secondary are young and suspect. Tyler Russell WILL get hit in that game. If your basing the level of improvement of our OL solely on THIS early game, you should probably prepare to be disappointed. Our OL can play well, we can double team Lemonier, and Russell is still going to get hit. They will get pressure sometimes. IF your expecting us to dominate them up front, like we did to Arky, OM, and Michigan late in 2010, you will be VERY disappointed. That said, we've got 2 OL with ABSOLUTE NFL talent(Gabe and Tobias) and a bunch of guys in their "step up" year(3rd season for a State/OM OL) with potential. Clausell improved greatly toward the end of last year. Day was a beast after a few games. Both will be improved again. OL is the singlemost position where you see an almost linear progression with age and experience. VERY few OL don't improve from one year to the next. I'm concerned about the tackle positions. I'm not worried about guards or center. They will be motor graters in this game. IF we can jump out to any kind of lead, we are going to line up, and run it right down their throats ala Florida in the Swamp.
The thing your overlooking is that they've got to take an (anemic for everyone other than us LAST year) offense, changed from spread to pro-style, on the shoulders of a dual threat qb trying to be a pocket passer that has never thrown a meaningful pass, particularly on the road, and they've got to score on a(I'm calling it RIGHT NOW based on the abundant circumstantial evidence) top 15 scoring defense that could EASILY jump into the top 10. We are going to hit Frasier and McCalebb in the mouth as well.
It is going to come down to a defensive slugfest. Can they adjust to a brand new scheme, in game 2, and shut us down? I say NO. They've got a ton of talent stockpiled on that team, but I say it won't be clicking yet due to youth and scheme changes. IF we played them in week 8, I might feel differently. In week 2, we're going to beat them, and it's not going to be a nail biter either.
Honestly, we could lose our head coach, both QBs, and half of our defense, and still expect 6 wins. ole miss and UK are really that bad. OOC is a joke. Troy being tough is a myth.<div>
</div><div>If we can't beat at least 2 of auburn, UT, and aTm, I'll be highly disappointed. There's no reason to think we're not capable of that.</div>
</div><div>If we can't beat at least 2 of auburn, UT, and aTm, I'll be highly disappointed. There's no reason to think we're not capable of that.</div>
I got my 2012 FO Almanac over the weekend and have been reading the college section first. They use their F/+ formula to estimate victories in individual games and add up the probabilities for winning each game to get an average number of victories over the 12 game season. According to FO, win probabilities for MSU are:
12-0, 11-1 0%
10-2 1/%
9-3 4%
8-4 16%
7-5, 6-6 29%
5-7 16%
4-8 4%
3-9 1%
2-10, 1-11, 0-12: 0%
12-0, 11-1 0%
10-2 1/%
9-3 4%
8-4 16%
7-5, 6-6 29%
5-7 16%
4-8 4%
3-9 1%
2-10, 1-11, 0-12: 0%
I understand why many on this board are clamoring for 9-10 wins. You've bought season tickets, spent money on hotels, given money to the BDC and you want to get more out of your investment, and I do as well but the factremainsthat we are a 6-7 win team. I'm happy with the direction our program is heading but to claim 9-10 wins is simply wishful thinking.
be zero percent chance?
I prefer the FAC method when looking at predictions and probabilites for college football.
I prefer the FAC method when looking at predictions and probabilites for college football.
The book explains their methodology but I haven't tried to understand all of it. They have good reasons for how and why they do things, but it's all very experimental.
Edit: those percentages are rounded to nearest whole percent, so its not literally zero, just .48% or less.
Edit: those percentages are rounded to nearest whole percent, so its not literally zero, just .48% or less.
everyone is forgetting. 2010 everyone knew our offense was run based and stacked the box. We didn't have the linemen due to injuries to be as successful with this scheme.
2011 we have a better throwing QB. They cannot stack the line to stop us. Our offense will feature more short patterns for our WRs which does not require the linemen to blow someone off the line. Yes, the will still have to stop up the holes, but that is easier to teach than hope they can blow a hole for the RB with 9 people up front. Consequently, it will easier for our OL to make those quick holes when we do run.
You cannot base our expected performance from a year with a SR running QB and injured OL.
I am like Coach, I expect us to be surprised at what our offense does this season.
2011 we have a better throwing QB. They cannot stack the line to stop us. Our offense will feature more short patterns for our WRs which does not require the linemen to blow someone off the line. Yes, the will still have to stop up the holes, but that is easier to teach than hope they can blow a hole for the RB with 9 people up front. Consequently, it will easier for our OL to make those quick holes when we do run.
You cannot base our expected performance from a year with a SR running QB and injured OL.
I am like Coach, I expect us to be surprised at what our offense does this season.
Get it?? Once again, the Auburn game will be key for us to get rolling. Our defense will have tosave us in that game IMO. I think it will take 3-4 games before our offense fully gels. After Auburn, we have plenty of patsies on the schedule tostill get W's while the offense finds its rhythm. By the time we head to UK, we'll have the kinks worked out.UK plays South Carolina the weekend before us. After Clowney & Company wreak havoc in their back field all day long,their OL won't be ready to tangle with our DL the very next weekend. Hell, they may be on their # 2 or # 3 QB by then. After the road win at UK, we'll come home to face UT in the friendly confines of DWS. UT sucked *** last year and I see no reason to expect great things from them this year. We won't blow them out by any means, butwe will get the W at home. Then the real season begins at Bama. We should be favored at home against Texas A&M and on the road at Ole Miss.As long as we don't sustain key injuries during this tough stretch of games, I think we win both of those games. So, to recap:
Beat Auburn =9-3
Lose to Auburn = 8-4
Beat Auburn =9-3
Lose to Auburn = 8-4
NewTweederEndzoneDance said:
I'm sweating I'm so wooly. Mullens 1st yr was 5-7 with the #1 rated hardest schedule and Tyson Lee as QB and we were inches from beating LSU and going 6-6. Before that season started everyone ESPECIALLY bear fans talked about how untalented we were and awful our Oline was going to be and everyone was surprised at the improvement on the Oline in 09. Last yr we had a DT playing LT and suffered several injuries and having Linemen pop their cherries in Sec play early on. Our Oline WILL be improved. Tobias came out and said he's 114% and the extra 14% is for the 14 games were gonna play. I feel you about Morrow and I honestly think Mullen regrets RS ing him but from the practices I've seen, he Is our most talented WR but games and practice are completly different. As far as Autry, I'm hearing that he's so talented we'll be lucky to have him his Sr yr but we'll have to see. Loving what I've seen out of TR. Mullen has groomed this guy and Im only 28 but I've never seen a QB at MSU with his talent and he's now saying things that makes me feel like Msu might actually have a QB that has elite talent and gets the field general part. Plus there's no changes on our staff so we have continuity with everyone on same page. Auburn is dealing with 2 new coordinators and should give us an edge playing @ home early on. Plus AUs defense was horrible last yr and doesn't even compare to ours and then on offense AU lost their best player Dyers and doesn't even know who their QB will be. We'll beat Auburn n prob split UT n Texas AnM and I think Ut wIll be bettrr than Tam. I would love to beat the piggies but 8 wins would be my over under and I think youd be gambling taking either O/U on 8 gms. I'm wooly but cautious.
That we're worse than Auburn, UT, aTm, and UPig, all at home? You're aware that we're favored in 3 of those 4, right? Or is this just an epic troll job.
believe we're some ****** team as you just said. But first lets look at who we're talking about here as well. Apparently shsdawg has his "own" definition of what the word "talent" means. Even though Websters & other dictionary publications actual definition has been posted on his threads. He STILL clings to some idiotic belief that HIS definition is the REAL one. Then you have this dumbass Bogeygolfer who has GOT to be a real Auburn fan trolling this site. Because he's gotta be the biggest knob-slobberer of Auburn on here. I want to actually meet these 2 dumbasses, like literally! Especially after the Auburn game and draw a orange and blue penis on Bogeygolfers chin as it's about to penetrate his pie hole. And tattoo the word "TALENT" on shsdawgs forehead! You 2 dumbasses are why bear fans still have a chuckle at our expense. I bet if Meagan Fox were naked in your rooms ready to get it on, you 2 flacid, fellows would find SOMETHING wrong w/ her. Like her breath isn't quite fresh enough or she has a small mole on her right boob. What a bunch of pansey *** pusscakes! 17ing grow a pair! Bogey, pull Pat Dye's rasins out of your mouth & staple them to where your "man patch" used to be. You 17ing better hope we lose to Auburn, if we don't I'm gonna wear you two Nancys out!
Do you not realize that the reason people think we could win 8 or more, is because we have the talent, coaching, and schedule to win 8 or more. How good will our team have to be before you guys actually expect something of them? If Mullen goes 6-6 the next 3 years while bringing in Top 20 classes, are you still going to be preaching this lame bull ****? You sound like the guys that didn't want to get rid of Stan's even after this past season. As long as we're competitive at lil ol misipi state, that's all we should expect.....bless our hearts. If we only win 6 this year, It was a big time underachievement. Mullen would say so too.
is hyping up something and talking about how good it is before it ever takes the field and then proclaiming it a failure when it doesn't meet overinflated expectations based on nothing. I've learned over the years to actually watch a game or two before setting my expectations. The fact is we will have a rebuilt offense and until we see it in action any predictions aren't based on much, if anything concrete. On defense we have more back and more to base things on. Predictions on that side carry a bit more weight.
They had no defense and no running game last year and none again this year. This doesn't translate into wins in the SEC. They have a decent passing game and an above average QB (maybe). Our D-line and secondary will negatetheir downfield threat. We will stuff their running backs and swarm Tyler Bray. I'm thinking that Aurty may go off in this game. We shall see.