Saban wouldn't have a horrible football team in year three. It's a pointless question.
And if he did he would probably be offered the Bama job and bolt bc he's nick Saban. Yes experience and track record matter when you evaluate a coach. No one expects championships but athletic directors put a lot of emphasis on year three when they evaluate. 3/4 of the team is yours. The guys you brought in. If there is regression in year three or stagnation that is a significant problem. 4 years bc you had those guys since freshman year. You can't get it done year three and have no track record then it's time for a new coach. Instead we will prolong the misery one more season bc of idiot ad who doesn't know how to negotiate a deal nor how to be honest in his eval process.