Kirk Herbstreit lays out chaos scenario that could push Alabama out of College Football Playoff

Alabama probably assumes they’re safe to be in the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens this weekend in the SEC Championship. However, ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit laid out the straightforward scenario that could end up knocking the Tide out of the CFP.

Herbstreit broke that down during ‘Nonstop’ on Monday. Some of this does depend on what the next rankings look like tonight from the CFP Selection Committee. That said, Duke winning over Virginia in the ACC Championship and BYU winning over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship would, in theory based on the present ratings, leave one spot left in the CFP. That then, assuming a loss for them to Georgia, would have Alabama in a debate with several at-large options, one which they may not win, even at 10-3 having just lost in the SEC Championship, as far as the College Football Playoff.

“You’re left, as an ACC fan, to hope that Miami, with the remaining seven spots, gets in. And then what would that do to the Big Ten and SEC’s allotment, if you have that scenario? I think Alabama could be in jeopardy, because there’s only so many spots that you’d have to go,” said Herbstreit. “So, if you throw in right now the two Group of Fives, a Big 12, an SEC, and a Big Ten champion, that’s five teams right there. And then, if you go, with our argument, BYU beating Texas Tech, Texas Tech would still go in. There’s six. Ohio State–Indiana? Whoever you say wins that, the loser is in, along with Oregon so that’s two more spots. Now you’re at eight. And now you debate, you know – that’s eight teams. You got four teams left under this scenario. Who are these four teams going to be?

“I’m saying, if you have ultimate chaos this week…Again, this is all based on Duke winning the ACC Championship. Duke would be knocked out. JMU, Tulane or North Texas winner? They would be in. And then you get your other three power conference champions in – Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 – so that gives you five right there. Then we agree that Texas Tech, even if they lose to BYU? They’re in. That gives you six. The loser of the Big Ten Championship is in – seven. Oregon is in. That’s eight. We haven’t hit Notre Dame yet, by the way. That’s eight teams that are definitely in. Now you go to the SEC. We already put the champion in. If Alabama loses, they’re out under this scenario. If Georgia beat them, that’d be nine. Are you going to take A&M out? That’s ten. Are you going to take Ole Miss out? That’s eleven. Now you’ve got Oklahoma, Alabama, Vanderbilt and then Miami and Utah for one spot. Got to throw Notre Dame in there too.”

Again, a lot of this analysis is just math when looking at how the dozen spots are allotted for the CFP. A win for Duke in Charlotte would likely mean two berths from out of the Group of Five, specifically the winner of the American Championship and, in all likelihood at this time, James Madison out of the Sun Belt. That would also set the only hope for the ACC as Miami, who would then find themselves in that at-large debate against a team like an Alabama.

From there, assuming three teams in from the Big Ten and, likely at this point, Notre Dame as well, BYU winning over Texas Tech would guarantee two spots for the Big 12, which thereby takes one away from the SEC. And, with Georgia in as the SEC Champion, and berths expected by Texas A&M and Ole Miss, Alabama could just end up being on the wrong side of the numbers as part of that at-large debate for the College Football Playoff.

A lot has to happen over the next five days, with the penultimate rankings coming out tonight as well as the results of those conference championships to come, for things to even break that way. But, if they do, Herbstreit would not want to be one of the people in that boardroom down in Grapevine, Texas.

“I’m just telling you…but that’s chaotic,” said Herbstreit.

“Nobody is hoping for a Virginia and a Texas Tech win more than the committee. Because, if those two things happen, that takes basically two spots away from somebody.”