Greg McElroy likes Notre Dame at over 8.5 wins

After a down-and-up season for Notre Dame, the people of South Bend are ready for their second year under Marcus Freeman. However, with a projected win total of 8.5, are the Fighting Irish going over or under in 2023?

Greg McElroy answered that question in an episode of ‘Always College Football’ on Monday. He recognized that Notre Dame is going to be a favorite in several of their matchups but that they’ll also take part in a handful of primetime matchups as well.

“They’re the favorite. You look at their schedule and they’re favored in nine games. They should be based on preseason prognostications. They should be favored in nine games,” McElroy said. “But you also have three big-time opponents in Ohio State, USC, and Clemson. All three of those will be very difficult. You have a swing game with Pitt and the next thing you know we’re flirting with 10.”

Over 12 games, McElroy was looking to see if he found three to four losses on the Irish’s slate. In the end, he found four that are tossups with three coming against those big-name programs over the course of a six-week span.

If they can at least split those matchups and go 2-2, McElroy likes their chances of going over 8.5 wins and made a prediction for them to go around 9-3 in ’23.

“You have two swings games really. If you want to win 10, you want to get back to the New Year’s Six? You’ve got to win one of these two: You’ve got to beat USC or you’ve got to beat Ohio State. And then you’ve got to split on the road between NC State and at Clemson,” said McElroy. “If you can get those taken care of? Those are really the four, I think, that are going to determine whether they go over.”

“I think they go over. They get at least one of those four teams, even though two are on the road and two are elite teams at home,” McElroy said. “I think they get at least one and 9-3 is about right for the Fighting Irish this year.”

Notre Dame reached a record of 9-4 last season even after starting 3-3 with losses to Marshall and Stanford. That’s why, if they can handle their business for the most part in their major matchups while also not slipping up in their other matchups, McElroy believes the Fighting Irish will be right back in the mix around double-digit wins this fall.