SMU Mustangs Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

In their debut season as a power conference program last Fall, SMU turned heads by not only going undefeated in ACC play but also earning the final at-large berth into the 2024 College Football Playoff before finishing 11-3 overall. Now, in their second season at the level, Phil Steele thinks the Mustangs could have enough to run a lot of that back this year.

Steele has released his annual preview magazine this offseason ahead of the upcoming season in college football. That included his two-page full breakdown of Southern Methodist, who he rated in a tie for the second-best team in the ACC along with Miami with the Mustangs and Hurricanes both behind Clemson.

Here’s Steele’s assessment of what this next season could be for SMU in following up the two best years in program history under Rhett Lashlee, with this being his fourth campaign in Dallas:

Offense

SMU, having posted a top-15 scoring offense the past six seasons, was led by this unit last season in averaging 36.5 points and 429.5 yards per game, which was close to the statistical projections of Steele, with the emergence of who’s now their returning starter in QB Kevin Jennings being a big part of that. Still, while he and most his offensive line are back, the Mustangs will have to replace the production of their weapons with their leading rusher in RB Brashard Smith and three of their top-four leading receivers in WRs Roderick Daniels, Key’Shawn Smith, and Moochie Dixon all gone.

“QB Jenning is back with my #15 rated OLine but they do lose their top RB and WR,” wrote Steele.

Defense

As good as the offense was, the Mustangs’ defense was also well-rated by giving up only 22.1 points and 326 yards per game last year. Again, though, it’s a unit that also needs to be replenished with a lot of names gone from the past year, namely contributors like LBs Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker, DEs Elijah Roberts and Jahfari Harvey, DT Jared Harrison-Hunte, and S Jonathan McGill.

“This year they lose 9 starters but add in a bunch of transfers and my computer is calling for 336.7 ypg.,” wrote Steele.

Forecast

While having some important names back, SMU could have much of its season determined by the 20-plus additions they made in a Top-20 class from the NCAA Transfer Portal. Steele also circled three conference games in the back half of their season from October 18th on, being against three of his top-six in the league with the two easier ones being hosted by them at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, that could determine if the Mustangs again make a run at the ACC and for a spot in the CFP.

“SMU loses 14 starters but Lashlee hit the portal hard again,” Steele wrote. “They do draw Clemson, (Louisville) and Miami but get two of those at home and have the talent to contend for a return trip to both the ACC title game and the playoff.”