Heather Dinich breaks down impact of Texas on the College Football Playoff

Despite nearly losing the past two weeks in overtime games on the road, Texas (6-2, 3-1) remains in some sense of contention for the College Football Playoff. Whether the Longhorns get in or not, though, ESPN’s Heather Dinich expects them to have a large effect on what the field eventually looks like for the CFP.

Dinich discussed Texas’ possible impact on the College Football Playoff while on ‘The Paul Finebaum Show’ on Monday afternoon. She described them as an X-factor in the postseason picture, as the Longhorns could still get in themselves as an at-large or, if not, affect the chances or seed of possibly projected teams that they’ve played already, like Ohio State or Oklahoma, or will play, with games left against Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Texas A&M in November.

“Texas is such an X-factor in the whole College Football Playoff, because they haven’t been playing well, and yet, with two losses, they’re still in this thing if they can run the table. I mean, look at the opportunities that they have ahead of them – if they beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M. But, obviously, they’re not going to win those games if they’ve been playing the way they have in recent weeks. But, they’ve found ways to win back-to-back road games in overtime,” said Dinich. “But, not only are they interesting for themselves. They impact Ohio State’s resumé. They impact Vanderbilt’s resumé. Every one they play who’s a playoff contender is impacted by how Texas fairs down the stretch as far as the value of beating that team this year.”

Again, Texas has already been on the brink for the last three weeks since losing to Florida in The Swamp. They responded with a rivalry win over Oklahoma in Red River, but have been very at risk of that third loss the last two games with a 16-13 overtime win over Kentucky in Lexington and then a 45-38 overtime win, after being down in the fourth quarter by as much 17, over Mississippi State in Starkville. So, with still just two losses overall and only one in conference play, the Longhorns remain alive for the College Football Playoff.

Finebaum agreed with her about Texas, saying “they are the most interesting team” and posing the question of if they could still get in even at 9-3 (6-2) overall – with his example being maybe a loss at Georgia but with a win in the season finale in their rivalry against Texas A&M. Dinich didn’t outright dismiss it, but did say it’d be hard for her to see based on the statistics and history of teams who have or would have made the expanded field for the CFP.

“I think, when you – you can’t eliminate a three-loss team entirely from the conversation without knowing what happens everywhere else. What does the ACC runner-up look like? What does the Big 12 runner-up (look like)? Do each of those leagues have one or two teams in the College Football Playoff? Does Notre Dame run the table and finish at 10-2?” Dinich asked. “Historically speaking, if you look back over the entire length of the College Football Playoff, 11 years to this point? Using the 12-team format and rules, 70% of the at-large bids would have gone to two-loss teams. About an average of five per years would be two-loss teams. Three-loss teams are playing with fire if you’re not a conference champion.”

“So, given that scenario that you just laid out for Texas, my initial thought is they’d probably be out – gut reaction, right,” said Dinich. “But, again, it depends on what happens elsewhere in the other leagues.”

Texas does almost certainly still have to win out for they themselves to be in the College Football Playoff. But, win or lose for them, the Longhorns, with three opponents left that are currently Top-10 in the AP Poll and all of which were in the field in the latest projections done by Dinich on Saturday night, may have some say regardless of who’s going to go to the playoff or not.