JD PicKell explains why he is buying Arch Manning stock heading into 2026 season

Arch Manning entered the 2025 season with all the hype in the world behind him. Texas traveled to Ohio State Week 1, his first start for the Longhorns. Between losing in Columbus and a few other weird results, Manning saw his fair share of criticism on the national stage. In reality, On3’s J.D. PicKell thinks Manning was walking into a tough situation, no matter what played out.

“If Arch had thrown for 200 yards against Ohio State, a touchdown, and a pick, there still would’ve been people saying ‘Overhyped. He’s not that good. This guy is supposed to be the No. 1 overall pick next year.’ This, that, and the other,” On3’s PicKell said via Andy & Ari On3. “Arch was doomed from the start in September, short of him going for 300 yards every single game. So, that part of the equation, I think, a lot of us on the reasonable side, we all took with a grain of salt and said ‘Okay, it might take him a second.'”

Andy Staples believes around the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma is when the light officially came on for Manning. He turned the ship around for Texas, only losing one game the rest of the season. Manning’s personal play became a whole lot better as well once settling in under Steve Sarkisian.

Everything came together vs. Michigan in Texas’ bowl game. Manning threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 155 yards and another two scores on the ground. PicKell says how Manning closed out the year is enough for him to buy into what 2026 will look like.

“Arch finished top five in the SEC in total touchdowns last season,” PicKell said. “He actually had a really strong year and kind of capitalized on that in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. I think the mental fortitude to be able to dig himself out of that ditch is why I feel so comfortable buying stock again in Arch Manning.”

A summer full of conversation will determine what kind of expectations are heading Manning’s way. Texas opens the season in a similar fashion, facing Ohio State as its main nonconference opponent. Week 2 will be where it falls on the schedule, though. A tough SEC slate will follow after the conference expanded to nine games.

Manning is going to have at least one person believing in him. PicKell likes what he saw late from the former Five-Star Plus+ product.