Joel Klatt questions if paying Lincoln Riley's buyout would be worth it for USC

Lincoln Riley could find himself on the hot seat if year four doesn’t go well for him in Los Angeles. Joel Klatt, though, thinks there’s more that they’d have to consider in just firing him.

Klatt answered a question about Riley’s future at USC during a mailbag episode of his show on Monday. That started with some context from him noting that his tenure hasn’t been all bad when considering the success of his debut there in 2022 and how he thinks things actually went in 2024.

“I get it. I think that you’ve been disappointed lately. Let’s not be revisionist in our history because the first season that Lincoln Riley was there, they were basically Caleb Williams having a leg injury away from going to the College Football Playoff in the four-team era. Not the twelve-team era – the four-team era,” said Klatt. “You were right there at the top-end of the sport so you can’t tell me you’ve been disappointed every single year. I think that first year was too early. I think even that success surprised Lincoln Riley.”

“Having said that, last year was a disappointment, in large part due to all the close losses. You can’t lose as many close games and not be disappointed because they felt like, I’m sure, that they were in a lot of those games and could’ve or should’ve won those games,” Klatt continued. “I think about overtime against Penn State…USC had ’em, had ’em dead to rights and it didn’t go their way. They have a great chance at Minnesota, don’t get it done. Great chance against Michigan, don’t get it done. So, you get where I’m going. Like, I know it was disappointing. I do believe it can turn around.”

Riley is 26-14 (.650) through three seasons as head coach of the Trojans. Those records have gotten worse over each year leading into last season when Southern Cal went 7-6 (.538) in their debut in the Big Ten. That has since brought his tenure in Hollywood into some question coming into this fall.

However, Klatt thinks there’s too many reasons for USC not to fire him in the end, even if they do have to discuss it if they finish with another poor record in 2025. Among those considerations were a large buyout that the Trojans would be paying to get rid of a coach who still is successful based on his eight-year resumé, a coach who currently has the No. 2 recruiting class in 2026 per Rivals’ Industry Team Ranking, and to go through what would be a full reset of the program in this era of the sport.

“Now, if he goes 7-5 again, then there’s going to be talk. There’s going to be talk,” said Klatt. “Riley’s buyout would be probably around $70 million. But then you have to look at, like, is that worth it? My suspicion is no and here’s why. He has a track record of success. You know he can do it. He’s also, right now at least in the offseason, putting together what is the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. It will not end up there but it will be high…He’s doing (talent acquisition) very well now.”

“They’ve got these close losses. If those turn into close wins, now you build momentum on the field,” Klatt continued. “Then you have to think about, if you fire your coach, everybody’s out so talent acquisition leaves…So, you talk about really starting from zero? There’s a reason why, for the first time in a long time, where was no SEC coaches fired this last offseason. Why? Because it is almost impossible to rebuild your program once you start that clock, fire a coach, and lose all your players. You’re starting from scratch. Nobody wants to start from scratch.”

USC expected, and still expects, better with Riley as their head coach. The Trojans just may not be able to do much about it if they don’t meet those expectations again this season, with what all a firing would entail, in Klatt’s opinion.

“Even if it’s 7-5? Although there’ll be conversations, there’ll be murmurs, I don’t think that they would actually pull the trigger on Lincoln Riley,” said Klatt.