NCAA women's basketball Tournament bracket breakdown

The NCAA women’s basketball bracket has been released and there’s plenty to take away from the selections. The committee revealed the 16 hosting teams yesterday, but we now have the full slate. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each region of the bracket. 

Fort Worth 1:

Upset pick: Fairfield over Notre Dame

Fairfield hasn’t fared well in the NCAA Tournament over the past few years, but I do think this is a good matchup for them. There have been a few teams that have lined up the blueprint to stopping Hannah Hidalgo, and if Fairfield’s defense can continue at the rate it has been, I think this time around may fare better for the Stags.

Best first-round matchups: Iowa State vs. Syracuse, Illinois vs. Colorado

Iowa State hasn’t looked the same since losing Addy Brown to injury – and even after her return. That being said, I still think they’re the most dangerous 8-seed in the field. Syracuse has one of the best freshmen in the nation in Uche Izoje and will be hungry for a chance to earn an NCAA Tournament win.

Illinois and Colorado are two teams that have gone fairly overlooked this season. Colorado played some gritty basketball in the Big 12 Tournament, but Illinois has been able to keep up with some of the best teams in the Big Ten all year.

Best potential second-round matchup: Maryland vs. North Carolina

Both North Carolina and Maryland have had some troubling losses this season, but they’ve also both earned some major wins. Brenda Frese in March is always dangerous, but Courtney Banghart and the Tar Heels never back down from a fight.

Who makes the Sweet Sixteen?

UConn, Maryland, Ohio State, Vanderbilt

Biggest seeding surprise: No. 5-seed Maryland

I suppose this wasn’t a surprise, since we learned that Maryland wouldn’t be hosting yesterday, but I still find it interesting that the Terrapins fell out of the top four seed lines. It doesn’t change their path much, though, so we’ll see how it works itself out.

Key storylines: A potential showdown between UConn and Vanderbilt, Fairfield looking to make it past the first round

The potential Elite Eight matchup between UConn and Vanderbilt is intriguing for more than one reason. Firstly, we’ll see a matchup between the two top candidates for National Player of the Year: Sarah Strong and Mikayla Blakes. Secondly, it would be a matchup between Geno Auriemma and Shea Ralph. Ralph, a UConn alum who played for Auriemma, is now among one of the best coaches in the country and will have a chance to take down her former coach’s team.

Player(s) to watch: Sarah Strong, Azzi Fudd, Mikayla Blakes, Hannah Hidalgo, Audi Crooks, Halli Poock, Kaety L’Amoreaux, Jaloni Cambridge

Sacramento 2:

Upset pick: Nebraska/Richmond over Baylor

All three of these teams have underachieved a bit this season. This is a chance for one of them to come out on top and advance in the postseason to face bigger fish. Richmond has one of the best players in the nation in Maggie Doogan, and everyone (me included) will be sat for her final NCAA Tournament run. Taliah Scott at Baylor has been going off all year long and Nebraska, while they’ve struggled as of late, certainly has the talent to earn a win here.

Best first-round matchups: Oklahoma State vs. Princeton, Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Princeton and Oklahoma State have both made appearances in the AP Poll this season and the Tigers are a mid-major team I’d keep an eye on to move to the Round of 32. This will be Madison St. Rose’s last run with Princeton, but due to Ivy League rules prohibiting a fifth-year, she’s already entered the transfer portal and will certainly be on a Power 5 roster next season.

Green Bay is another underrated mid-major who has dominated the Horizon League this year. Minnesota has had a strong finish to the regular-season, but this should be a fun matchup. Plitzuweit spent some time as an assistant coach at Green Bay and will also reunite with one of her former assistant coaches.

Best potential second-round matchup: Baylor vs. Duke

While this is strange, I am excited at the potential of seeing a rematch of opening day of the season. Both teams feel drastically different in March – and I’d expect a different result.

Who makes the Sweet Sixteen?

UCLA, Ole Miss, Duke, LSU

Biggest seeding surprise: No. 7-seed Texas Tech

At one point in the year, Texas Tech would’ve been in the conversation to host. The parity of the Big 12 hit them, though, and they fell all the way down to a 7-seed.

Key storylines: Big upset potential

The upset potential in this region is incredibly strong. Several elite mid-majors are paired against teams who have struggled towards the end of this year.

Player(s) to watch: All of UCLA’s starters, Madison St. Rose, Cotie McMahon, Maggie Doogan, Flau’jae Johnson

Fort Worth 3:

Upset pick: Rhode Island over Alabama

Rhode Island managed a major upset in non-conference play, taking down NC State on the road. Alabama has gone fairly under-the-radar this season and has a ton of talent, but the A-10 is a competitive league that has prepared Rhode Island for high-level matchups.

Best first-round matchups: West Virginia vs. Miami (OH), NC State vs. Tennessee

Miami (OH) is one of the best stories in both men’s and women’s basketball. I’d wager to say that the women’s team has a better chance of making it past the first round. West Virginia, though, has looked fantastic as of late. They just won the Big 12 Tournament and their pesky defense will cause trouble for whoever they face in March.

NC State vs. Tennessee, another rematch from the regular-season, will be good television. Tennessee has struggled mightily as of late, but they have a chance to prove that they were undervalued as a 10-seed.

Best potential second-round matchup: Kentucky vs. West Virginia

Kentucky and West Virginia were both on that ‘bubble’ of hosting. West Virginia won out and we now have a chance to see if that was the right decision. The Wildcats have had some injury trouble this year, but now at full health, this has the potential to be one of the best second-round games.

Who makes the Sweet Sixteen?

Texas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan

Biggest seeding surprise: No. 10-seed Tennessee

Tennessee will certainly head into the NCAA Tournament with a chip on their shoulder as a No. 10-seed. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games, but this is a team with a surplus of talent that can be dangerous when they’re at their best.

Key storylines: NC State vs. Tennessee rematch, potential second-round matchups

The rematch, which I just discussed, is a big storyline. But the potential second-round matchups here are scrumptious. Kentucky vs. West Virginia and NC State/Tennessee vs. Michigan both have the potential to serve fantastic basketball.

Player(s) to watch: Rori Harmon, Madison Booker, Clara Strack, Peyton McDaniel, Zoe Brooks, Syla Swords, Olivia Olson

Sacramento 4:

Upset pick: South Dakota State over Washington

South Dakota State will always be a threat in March. That’s the tweet (well, almost). Washington hosts loads of talent on their roster, but this is another first-round matchup that I’d eye for upset potential.

Best first-round matchups: Clemson vs. USC, Georgia vs. Virginia/Arizona State

Clemson feels a bit odd here as a No. 8-seed, but this should be a fun matchup. Any game with Jazzy Davidson is worth watching, but USC has slightly underachieved this season. None of that matters, though, because it’s all a blank slate in March.

The First Four game here is actually most enticing, with Molly Miller making the NCAA Tournament in year one at Arizona State and Virginia returning to the big dance.

Best potential second-round matchup: Oklahoma vs. Michigan State

It will be Aaliyah Chavez’s first NCAA Tournament run and she’s come through for the Sooners in big moments this season. Michigan State, though, has managed some really impressive outings and should give Oklahoma a tough fight.

Who makes the Sweet Sixteen?

South Carolina, Oklahoma, TCU, Iowa

Biggest seeding surprise: No. 8-seed Clemson, No. 11-seed Arizona State

Like I said above, Clemson feels a bit over (under?) seeded as an 8-seed. I would’ve expected them to fall in around the 10-seed range. This doesn’t work in their favor, as they’d have a likely regular-season rematch against a South Carolina team that nobody wants to face.

Key storylines: Molly Miller in March Madness, potential rematch of Battle of SC

Molly Miller has done an incredible job in year one at Arizona State and an NCAA Tournament win would just be icing on the cake. Luckily for the Sun Devils, I really do think they got a good draw and they could advance.

Also, if USC manages a first-round win over Clemson, they’ll have a rematch against South Carolina. It didn’t fare well earlier this year, but maybe the second time is the charm?

Player(s) to watch: Raven Johnson, Joyce Edwards, Jazzy Davidson, Aaliyah Chavez, Brooklyn Meyer, Olivia Miles, Ava Heiden

Which No. 1-seed has the easiest path?

Let’s assume for a moment that each top seed wins every matchup. Which No. 1-seed has the easiest path to the Final Four?

It’s got to be South Carolina. They’d play two teams that they’ve already faced this year. While the Oklahoma rematch may be tough, you can be sure that they’d come out swinging to get the win this time around.

Let’s map out each path:

UConn’s path to the Final Four (if all top seeds advance):

Round of 64: UTSA

Round of 32: Iowa State

Sweet Sixteen: North Carolina

Elite Eight: Vanderbilt

South Carolina’s path to the Final Four (if all top seeds advance):

Round of 64: Southern/Samford

Round of 32: Clemson

Sweet Sixteen: Oklahoma

Elite Eight: Iowa

UCLA’s path to the Final Four (if all top seeds advance):

Round of 64: Cal Baptist

Round of 32: Oklahoma State

Sweet Sixteen: Minnesota

Elite Eight: LSU

Texas’ path to the Final Four (if all top seeds advance):

Round of 64: Missouri State/Stephen F. Austin

Round of 32: Oregon

Sweet Sixteen: West Virginia

Elite Eight: Michigan

Best first and second-round coaching battles

There are plenty of coaches with history. Here are a few matchups, off the top of my head, that allow for a pair reunited.

Karen Aston and Geno Auriemma

UTSA head coach Karen Aston is no stranger to facing off against UConn. Twice in her time at Texas the Longhorns fell short in the NCAA Tournament at the hands of Geno Auriemma. Aston and Auriemma will face off again, this time in the first round.

Kevin McGuff and Niele Ivey

Ohio State and Notre Dame could potentially meet in the second round of the NCAA Tournament here – and there’s a fun connection. When Niele Ivey played for Notre Dame from 1996-2001, Kevin McGuff was an assistant coach for the Fighting Irish.

Katie Abrahamson-Henderson and Amaka Agugua-Hamilton

If Virginia wins their First Four game against Arizona State, they’ll face Georgia in the Round of 64. If that happens, Katie Abrahamson-Henderson and Amaka Agugua-Hamilton will be reunited. Though brief, the pair both spent time on staff together at Indiana for the 2009-10 season.

Dawn Plitzuweit and Kayla Karius

Dawn Plitzuweit and Kayla Karius will be reunited in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. From 2016-18, Karius was an assistant under Plitzuweit at South Dakota.

Kenny Brooks and Sean O’Regan

Kenny Brooks and Kentucky will face Sean O’Regan and James Madison in the Round of 64. This one is particularly fun, because Brooks was formerly the head coach for the Dukes. During that time, from 2007-16, O’Regan was on staff. He was promoted to head coach when Brooks took the Virginia Tech head coaching job.