Casey Alexander's resume is worse than you think

kccat2016 said:

"He made it worse"...by having a better winning percentage than Byrd...when Byrd was leading Belmont in weaker conferences in the pre-NIL era including, *checks notes* 11 seasons in the ASUN where all but three of those aforementioned tourney appearances came from? Got it. You lay out some totally reasonable points and reasons to be skeptical, but follow it up with blanket statements void of critical context like that to push your agenda.

kstatejeff said:

If Gene Taylor hired Casey Alexander largely on the strength of his Belmont tenure, I simply don't understand it. Alexander inherited one of the most well-run mid-major programs in the country. Rick Byrd spent 22 years at Belmont and led them to eight NCAA tournaments in his final 14 years, a KenPom top-100 finish seven times in his final nine seasons, and a program that averaged 25 wins over that same stretch. Byrd's final team went 27-6 and finished #49 in KenPom. He had back-to-back squads that finished #23 and #25 nationally. In other words, Alexander walked into a pretty good situation. Certainly not a dumpster fire. What did Alexander do with it? He got Belmont to the 2020 NCAA Tournament (which didn't play due to COVID) and then missed it in each of his six subsequent attempts. The transition to the MVC after three years in the OVC surely had some challenges, but even accounting for that, his Belmont teams were consistently mediocre the first six years: final KenPom rankings of 109, 110, 86, 125, 115, and 124, an average of 112th. Byrd's teams averaged 81st over the full decade before Alexander took over. This year was Alexander's best at Belmont (#68 finish) and yet they were bounced from the MVC Tournament in the first round, losing by 21 as a 12.5-point favorite against Drake. Brutal result! In 15 years of coaching (two at Stetson, six at Lipscomb, seven at Belmont), Alexander has never beaten a top-25 opponent. Not once. His best win against a quality opponent was a road win over #40 TCU in 2018 while coaching Lipscomb. His career record against top-50 opponents across both programs is, best I can tell, 2-21. Against top-100 opponents, he's won roughly 25% of the time. At Belmont specifically, he was 18-31 against teams ranked better than his own (and some of those wins came in games where Belmont was a coin flip or even a mild favorite due to home court.) By my count, roughly half of Alexander's 279 combined wins at Belmont and Lipscomb came against teams ranked 250th or worse, and he doesn't do more with less when he plays teams on his level. It seems to me that Alexander is skipping a step here. His two years at Stetson, he got the program playing better than it was before he arrived, and it got worse after he left. At Lipscomb, it was the same story, he took them to new heights (#47 his final year!) and then it fell off after he left. But at Belmont, the program simply did not get better. The next step likely should have been an A-10 or an AAC school. Instead, he's jumping all the way to the Big 12. I'm highly skeptical he's ready to take on the likes of Kelvin Sampson, Bill Self, Tommy Lloyd, etc. I'm pretty sure this hire sucks, but I'm open to the possibility of the portal era being a challenge that was too difficult for him to overcome. I just stumbled upon a tweet from Rob Dauster who said the following: "There's a reason why so many high-majors target Belmont's roster every spring. Will be interested to see what he can get done at a place where he will have resources and a great homecourt." Maybe there's some real truth to that. I will still say the results-based resume is underwhelming.

Matt F said:

We need positivity. Keep your negative BS outta here. This guy is an obvious upgrade over Tang.

catfan03 said:

Things I'll be looking for as indicators Alexander has a fighting chance here. 1. Hires a dedicated GM to manage the roster for him. 2. His assistant coach hires. Tang surrounded himself with loyalists and wouldn't delegate control. Does Alexander have the stones to go outside his circle and comfort zone to maximize the talent sitting next to him at the expense of familiarity. 3. This one is harder to quantify but will be looking for signs pre portal that we are tampering as much as possible with players before the opening of the window. He has to be an absolute shark at this level to compete and if he won't push the limits on recruiting, he will fail.

kstatejeff said:

If Gene Taylor hired Casey Alexander largely on the strength of his Belmont tenure, I simply don't understand it. Alexander inherited one of the most well-run mid-major programs in the country. Rick Byrd spent 22 years at Belmont and led them to eight NCAA tournaments in his final 14 years, a KenPom top-100 finish seven times in his final nine seasons, and a program that averaged 25 wins over that same stretch. Byrd's final team went 27-6 and finished #49 in KenPom. He had back-to-back squads that finished #23 and #25 nationally. In other words, Alexander walked into a pretty good situation. Certainly not a dumpster fire. What did Alexander do with it? He got Belmont to the 2020 NCAA Tournament (which didn't play due to COVID) and then missed it in each of his six subsequent attempts. The transition to the MVC after three years in the OVC surely had some challenges, but even accounting for that, his Belmont teams were consistently mediocre the first six years: final KenPom rankings of 109, 110, 86, 125, 115, and 124, an average of 112th. Byrd's teams averaged 81st over the full decade before Alexander took over. This year was Alexander's best at Belmont (#68 finish) and yet they were bounced from the MVC Tournament in the first round, losing by 21 as a 12.5-point favorite against Drake. Brutal result! In 15 years of coaching (two at Stetson, six at Lipscomb, seven at Belmont), Alexander has never beaten a top-25 opponent. Not once. His best win against a quality opponent was a road win over #40 TCU in 2018 while coaching Lipscomb. His career record against top-50 opponents across both programs is, best I can tell, 2-21. Against top-100 opponents, he's won roughly 25% of the time. At Belmont specifically, he was 18-31 against teams ranked better than his own (and some of those wins came in games where Belmont was a coin flip or even a mild favorite due to home court.) By my count, roughly half of Alexander's 279 combined wins at Belmont and Lipscomb came against teams ranked 250th or worse, and he doesn't do more with less when he plays teams on his level. It seems to me that Alexander is skipping a step here. His two years at Stetson, he got the program playing better than it was before he arrived, and it got worse after he left. At Lipscomb, it was the same story, he took them to new heights (#47 his final year!) and then it fell off after he left. But at Belmont, the program simply did not get better. The next step likely should have been an A-10 or an AAC school. Instead, he's jumping all the way to the Big 12. I'm highly skeptical he's ready to take on the likes of Kelvin Sampson, Bill Self, Tommy Lloyd, etc. I'm pretty sure this hire sucks, but I'm open to the possibility of the portal era being a challenge that was too difficult for him to overcome. I just stumbled upon a tweet from Rob Dauster who said the following: "There's a reason why so many high-majors target Belmont's roster every spring. Will be interested to see what he can get done at a place where he will have resources and a great homecourt." Maybe there's some real truth to that. I will still say the results-based resume is underwhelming.

kstatejeff said:

If Gene Taylor hired Casey Alexander largely on the strength of his Belmont tenure, I simply don't understand it. Alexander inherited one of the most well-run mid-major programs in the country. Rick Byrd spent 22 years at Belmont and led them to eight NCAA tournaments in his final 14 years, a KenPom top-100 finish seven times in his final nine seasons, and a program that averaged 25 wins over that same stretch. Byrd's final team went 27-6 and finished #49 in KenPom. He had back-to-back squads that finished #23 and #25 nationally. In other words, Alexander walked into a pretty good situation. Certainly not a dumpster fire. What did Alexander do with it? He got Belmont to the 2020 NCAA Tournament (which didn't play due to COVID) and then missed it in each of his six subsequent attempts. The transition to the MVC after three years in the OVC surely had some challenges, but even accounting for that, his Belmont teams were consistently mediocre the first six years: final KenPom rankings of 109, 110, 86, 125, 115, and 124, an average of 112th. Byrd's teams averaged 81st over the full decade before Alexander took over. This year was Alexander's best at Belmont (#68 finish) and yet they were bounced from the MVC Tournament in the first round, losing by 21 as a 12.5-point favorite against Drake. Brutal result! In 15 years of coaching (two at Stetson, six at Lipscomb, seven at Belmont), Alexander has never beaten a top-25 opponent. Not once. His best win against a quality opponent was a road win over #40 TCU in 2018 while coaching Lipscomb. His career record against top-50 opponents across both programs is, best I can tell, 2-21. Against top-100 opponents, he's won roughly 25% of the time. At Belmont specifically, he was 18-31 against teams ranked better than his own (and some of those wins came in games where Belmont was a coin flip or even a mild favorite due to home court.) By my count, roughly half of Alexander's 279 combined wins at Belmont and Lipscomb came against teams ranked 250th or worse, and he doesn't do more with less when he plays teams on his level. It seems to me that Alexander is skipping a step here. His two years at Stetson, he got the program playing better than it was before he arrived, and it got worse after he left. At Lipscomb, it was the same story, he took them to new heights (#47 his final year!) and then it fell off after he left. But at Belmont, the program simply did not get better. The next step likely should have been an A-10 or an AAC school. Instead, he's jumping all the way to the Big 12. I'm highly skeptical he's ready to take on the likes of Kelvin Sampson, Bill Self, Tommy Lloyd, etc. I'm pretty sure this hire sucks, but I'm open to the possibility of the portal era being a challenge that was too difficult for him to overcome. I just stumbled upon a tweet from Rob Dauster who said the following: "There's a reason why so many high-majors target Belmont's roster every spring. Will be interested to see what he can get done at a place where he will have resources and a great homecourt." Maybe there's some real truth to that. I will still say the results-based resume is underwhelming.

ScreenName said:

I don’t know a damn thing about hiring a ball coach. Seems like a crap shoot to me. Who knows really. Some good things on his resume and the lack of tournament experience is bad. This hiring doesn’t get me excited but my feelings don’t mean a thing. Emotions are usually wrong anyways. As long as it’s a KSU friendly contract with a cheap exit then go for it. And for the love of all that is wholly if he knocks it out of the park his first year please don’t give him some stupid contract.

kstatejeff said:

: final KenPom rankings of 109, 110, 86, 125, 115, and 124, an average of 112th.

Matt F said:

We need positivity. Keep your negative BS outta here. This guy is an obvious upgrade over Tang.

tconman08 said:

This is concerning. I'm a fan first so I'll obviously support him and hope it goes well but this hire is underwhelming.

kstatejeff said:

If Gene Taylor hired Casey Alexander largely on the strength of his Belmont tenure, I simply don't understand it. Alexander inherited one of the most well-run mid-major programs in the country. Rick Byrd spent 22 years at Belmont and led them to eight NCAA tournaments in his final 14 years, a KenPom top-100 finish seven times in his final nine seasons, and a program that averaged 25 wins over that same stretch. Byrd's final team went 27-6 and finished #49 in KenPom. He had back-to-back squads that finished #23 and #25 nationally. In other words, Alexander walked into a pretty good situation. Certainly not a dumpster fire. What did Alexander do with it? He got Belmont to the 2020 NCAA Tournament (which didn't play due to COVID) and then missed it in each of his six subsequent attempts. The transition to the MVC after three years in the OVC surely had some challenges, but even accounting for that, his Belmont teams were consistently mediocre the first six years: final KenPom rankings of 109, 110, 86, 125, 115, and 124, an average of 112th. Byrd's teams averaged 81st over the full decade before Alexander took over. This year was Alexander's best at Belmont (#68 finish) and yet they were bounced from the MVC Tournament in the first round, losing by 21 as a 12.5-point favorite against Drake. Brutal result! In 15 years of coaching (two at Stetson, six at Lipscomb, seven at Belmont), Alexander has never beaten a top-25 opponent. Not once. His best win against a quality opponent was a road win over #40 TCU in 2018 while coaching Lipscomb. His career record against top-50 opponents across both programs is, best I can tell, 2-21. Against top-100 opponents, he's won roughly 25% of the time. At Belmont specifically, he was 18-31 against teams ranked better than his own (and some of those wins came in games where Belmont was a coin flip or even a mild favorite due to home court.) By my count, roughly half of Alexander's 279 combined wins at Belmont and Lipscomb came against teams ranked 250th or worse, and he doesn't do more with less when he plays teams on his level. It seems to me that Alexander is skipping a step here. His two years at Stetson, he got the program playing better than it was before he arrived, and it got worse after he left. At Lipscomb, it was the same story, he took them to new heights (#47 his final year!) and then it fell off after he left. But at Belmont, the program simply did not get better. The next step likely should have been an A-10 or an AAC school. Instead, he's jumping all the way to the Big 12. I'm highly skeptical he's ready to take on the likes of Kelvin Sampson, Bill Self, Tommy Lloyd, etc. I'm pretty sure this hire sucks, but I'm open to the possibility of the portal era being a challenge that was too difficult for him to overcome. I just stumbled upon a tweet from Rob Dauster who said the following: "There's a reason why so many high-majors target Belmont's roster every spring. Will be interested to see what he can get done at a place where he will have resources and a great homecourt." Maybe there's some real truth to that. I will still say the results-based resume is underwhelming.

tconman08 said:

This is concerning. I'm a fan first so I'll obviously support him and hope it goes well but this hire is underwhelming.

kstatejeff said:

This year was Alexander's best at Belmont (#68 finish) and yet they were bounced from the MVC Tournament in the first round, losing by 21 as a 12.5-point favorite against Drake. Brutal result!

Matt F said:

We need positivity. Keep your negative BS outta here. This guy is an obvious upgrade over Tang.

kstatejeff said:

I don't have an agenda. I am generally a fan of hiring coaches who prove they can win at multiple stops. Alexander's final season at Lipscomb was genuinely impressive and was a solid breakthrough from the prior two to five years. I didn't quite see a similar breakthrough at Belmont. Is it due to the step-up in league moving to the MVC? It's possible. Is it due to having some of his better players poached by bigger schools? Also possible. It could be other reasons (ie bad injury luck that I'm unaware of, etc.) Coming off the disastrous Tang hire, Alexander's body of work wouldn't have me hugely excited. But I obviously don't have any direct intel, didn't interview him, don't know what kind of staff he'll put together, etc. Maybe it'll work out! TJ Otzelberger's resume didn't do much for me either.