Torvik does NOT like this UNC team

Torvik has a note on his projections that it’s ’Far too early to use this’. He doesn’t have half the intl signings, and he still has Isaiah Evans on Dook’s roster if i remember. Also, it’s basically impossible for him to project international guys who haven’t played CBB.

Yeah you can’t use Torivk right now.

No statistical model is going to be anywhere near predictive in today's college basketball world before any games have been played. Too much player movement, no data on freshman or international players, no data on coaches who have never coached a college game before. Posting these type of things is for the clicks/likes/ just to get people talking (nothing wrong with that), it has no basis in reality because it has no data yet.

Far too early for Torvik. Currently, I’m the only true source on this team’s outlook. I haven’t been given the “go” to release specifics, but I can confirm this team will have you talkin’ a lot of sh*t at the NYE party!

We can be 360th so it'll make it easier for Malone to be Coach of the year aka Overachieving Award :)

thebigDZ said:

Torvik has a note on his projections that it’s ’Far too early to use this’. He doesn’t have half the intl signings, and he still has Isaiah Evans on Dook’s roster if i remember. Also, it’s basically impossible for him to project international guys who haven’t played CBB.

He’s probably tried to include the international guys (he’s got Keita for us plugged in), but you’d think some of these models would almost have to figure out given the way internationals are coming to big time CBB

Torvik’s model overemphasizes 3 point shooting. These players haven’t demonstrated they can be efficient from 3 so his model isn’t going to like them. What this team can do though is defend and that quality is under emphasized in preseason.

Here's the link to the rankings: https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php And UNC's team page: https://barttorvik.com/rostercast.php?team=North+Carolina&year=2027 Interesting to see Stevenson as the highest-rated in ORTG

A lot of unknowns about this group. Malone is making a bet on upside. Im still not sure what I think about the roster. Malone made the best of a tough situation. I give him an A but I feel like the roster is B or B- level, if that makes sense. However, tons of upside. But history of the portal era just makes me feel like at least one or two things wont pan out how it needs to. This group has a wide range of outcomes IMO. Low end would be somewhere in the 30's, 8/9 seed. High end feels like top 12-15, as a 4/5 seed. I think we're one solid bench guy in the front court (Handlegoten) from being top 10. I do think it will be a very cohesive team, Malone will have them playing hard, and it feels like they will grow a lot, which will be nice to see again.

I think we should prepare for the fact that most polls will be pretty unkind to us this pre-season. On paper, they’ll see us as an intriguing roster with serious questions on the interior and from the three point line. And they wouldn’t be wrong. I think we’ll be listed 20-25 by most outlets and maybe even unranked in some others. This team will have to play above their expectations and with a chip on their shoulder to prove the doubters wrong. With Mike Malone coaching, I believe it’s possible, but we can’t expect the pollsters to dig that deep during pre-season polling.

UNConquerable said:

A lot of unknowns about this group. Malone is making a bet on upside. Im still not sure what I think about the roster. Malone made the best of a tough situation. I give him an A but I feel like the roster is B or B- level, if that makes sense. However, tons of upside. But history of the portal era just makes me feel like at least one or two things wont pan out how it needs to. This group has a wide range of outcomes IMO. Low end would be somewhere in the 30's, 8/9 seed. High end feels like top 12-15, as a 4/5 seed. I think we're one solid bench guy in the front court (Handlegoten) from being top 10. I do think it will be a very cohesive team, Malone will have them playing hard, and it feels like they will grow a lot, which will be nice to see again.

I agree about the potential component. Lot of good pieces that Malone has to be able to mold together effectively to have the desired effect.

BenSherman said:

Here's the link to the rankings: https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php And UNC's team page: https://barttorvik.com/rostercast.php?team=North+Carolina&year=2027 Interesting to see Stevenson as the highest-rated in ORTG

His system is pretty low on the transfers and doesn’t really know what to do with the intl bigs. And these systems tend to be pretty conservative when it comes to projecting big jumps in performance, which is what UNC is banking on from Brown, Neo, and Able. Obviously I’m a homer but I think UNC will turn a lot of heads early in the season.

1. Difficult to project international prospects. 2. To me, our roster is heavily reliant on projection and players improving YOY whether it be from improved coaching, gained experience, larger role, team fit, etc. There aren’t a ton of home run, proven players where you know exactly what you’re getting. But there is a ton of talent, versatility and potential. - Can Avdalas be more efficient with better pieces around him? - How big of a sophomore year leap does Able make? Similar to Juke last year? - Can Brown be the lead guard on a winning team? - Keita and Samo very talented, but inexperienced to USA and college basketball. Is Keita able to be impactful year 1? - Can Denis be a reliable off the bench ball handler? I’m excited for the team and to see how they come together. It comes down to trusting Malone to maximize the players talent and skill sets.

Way too many variables to even look at some measure like this especially with Euro guys involved I hate hate hate these things until much later in the season

HeelGod said:

Way too many variables to even look at some measure like this especially with Euro guys involved I hate hate hate these things until much later in the season

Especially for this team. If all goes well, this team will look a lot different from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10.

GregBarnes said:

Especially for this team. If all goes well, this team will look a lot different from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10.

I guess in that sense, it might be better for us to have an easier OOC. I'd personally like to see us against top tier competition, but having a lighter schedule might help this team gel.

Ahhines said:

I guess in that sense, it might be better for us to have an easier OOC. I'd personally like to see us against top tier competition, but having a lighter schedule might help this team gel.

Probably, but that would mean UNC would have to capitalize on that non-conference schedule and be playing at a higher level come conference season. Otherwise, you're behind the 8-ball trying to catch up. With an expanded NCAAT field, earning an at-large bid shouldn't be a concern.

Well I don’t like Torvik, and frankly I think he is a markass b*tch

GregBarnes said:

I agree about the potential component. Lot of good pieces that Malone has to be able to mold together effectively to have the desired effect.

I AM NOT... am not... implying this team "will be" as good as 2024. But I see similarities in the fact that no one thought 2024 would end up being a 1 seed and winning the ACC. Things came together and the pieces fit. I see this team with similar "OPPORTUNITES" to exceed the sum of their parts. We could be "pretty good" or we could have pieces fit perfectly and we have a great year.

So then we're saying he's directionally correct on the top 3-4 in the conference but completely out to lunch on us?

Tarheelgrad90 said:

I AM NOT... am not... implying this team "will be" as good as 2024. But I see similarities in the fact that no one thought 2024 would end up being a 1 seed and winning the ACC. Things came together and the pieces fit. I see this team with similar "OPPORTUNITES" to exceed the sum of their parts. We could be "pretty good" or we could have pieces fit perfectly and we have a great year.

Understood. UNC was No. 19 in the AP preseason poll in 2023-24 and No. 17 preseason in KenPom, and then finished No. 7 in the AP poll and No. 9 in KenPom. So while UNC was better than expected that season, it wasn't a dramatic jump over preseason expectations.

Several key guys have never played a minute of college ball and another (Denis) barely has. Able appears poised to break out vs historical performance. This is a very difficult team to project IMO my main concern is 3-point shooting, but we will see. Very confident the game planning and coaching will be far superior to what we have seen the last few years

Tarheelgrad90 said:

I AM NOT... am not... implying this team "will be" as good as 2024. But I see similarities in the fact that no one thought 2024 would end up being a 1 seed and winning the ACC. Things came together and the pieces fit. I see this team with similar "OPPORTUNITES" to exceed the sum of their parts. We could be "pretty good" or we could have pieces fit perfectly and we have a great year.

This is how I'm seeing this team as well. It's hard to imagine us not being pretty good... but we could be VERY good.