2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections features more movement from mid-week upsets

This midweek bracketology update provides plenty of movement as teams across the projected field continue to change their stock compared to those around them. UConn suffered an upset loss, as did Nebraska and Texas Tech, while other top teams faced off head-to-head and shifted the top-seed line conversation.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

With more action to come this weekend, including key games for top seeds and pivotal bubble matchups, there is plenty on the line. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, Houston
Last four byes: Georgia, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Santa Clara
Last four in: UCF, UCLA, New Mexico, Missouri
First four out: USC, VCU, SDSU, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 SEMO (OVC) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC)
16 Howard (MEAC) vs. 16 NJIT (AEC)
11 UCF vs. 11 Missouri
11 UCLA vs. 11 New Mexico

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 SEMO/Bethune Cookman
8 Clemson vs. 9 Texas
Portland
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Tampa
6 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Florida (SEC) vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis
7 NC State vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan sits at No. 1 overall in bracketology’s 1-seed line once again, coming off a win over Purdue in convincing fashion. The Wolverines now prepare to battle for the right to maintain this spot, with Duke slated for a rare non-conference matchup in February.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State made a strong case for a 1-seed jump during the early week, knocking off Houston, but ultimately fell in the 2-seed conversation once again in bracketology. The Cyclones now prepare to face BYU with a chance to rise given the head-to-head matchups above.

South (Houston)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston vs. 16 Appalachian State (SBC)
8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Miami
Greenville
5 Louisville vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Oklahoma City
6 North Carolina vs. 11 UCF/Missouri
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
Buffalo
7 Iowa vs. 10 Georgia
2 UConn vs. 15 Merrimack (MAAC)

1-seed Houston

Houston maintains its spot on the 1-seed line on razor-thin margins after losing against Iowa State early in the week, but seeing other candidates suffer upsets before the bracketology update. The Cougars will face Arizona in a battle of 1-seeds while looking to hold off the chasing pack of 2-seed teams.

2-seed UConn

UConn had a great opportunity to jump back onto the 1-seed line after the mid-week results, but suffered an upset loss against Creighton to keep them on the 2-seed line for another week. The Huskies now need to rebound against Villanova.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 Indiana
Philadelphia
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
San Diego
6 Villanova vs. 11 UCLA/New Mexico
3 Kansas vs. 14 Cal Baptist (WAC)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Illinois vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Duke

Duke continues to make its run toward the No. 1 overall seed, picking up a dominant win against Syracuse early in the week. The real chance for the Blue Devils to rise comes against Michigan on Saturday, where they can pick up a head-to-head advantage in a non-conference battle.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois continues to make a strong case for a top seed with a dominant mid-week win over Big Ten bubble team USC. The Fighting Illini continue their West Coast roadtrip with a game against UCLA next on the schedule.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Howard/NJIT
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 SMU
Tampa
5 Alabama vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Stephen F Austin (Southland)
Portland
6 BYU vs. 11 Texas A&M
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Philadelphia
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Auburn
2 Purdue vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona has settled into the No. 3 overall seed in bracketology, coming off a win over BYU, which helped keep it above the debate, which sits below. The Wildcats will have an opportunity to move up the board again with a matchup against Houston this weekend.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue sits on the 2-seed line still despite a midweek loss against Michigan, which has happened to many top teams already this season. Now, the Boilermakers look to rebound with a matchup against in-state rival Indiana on deck.