2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections sees big movers near bubble conversation

This week’s bracketology update provides plenty of movement across the bubble as teams head in opposite directions across college basketball. Meanwhile, many teams near the top of the bracket have strengthened their position ahead of the weekend.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

With more action to come this weekend, including key games for top seeds and pivotal bubble matchups, there is plenty on the line. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
Last four byes: UCLA, Texas, Auburn, Missouri
Last four in: Ohio State, Indiana, Santa Clara, SDSU
First four out: New Mexico, Virginia Tech, California, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 UMBC (AEC) vs. 16 Morgan State (MEAC)
16 Morehead State (OVC) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 Santa Clara
11 Indiana vs. 11 SDSU

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 UMBC/Morgan State
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 UCF
Portland
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Buffalo
6 Louisville vs. 11 Missouri
3 Illinois vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Oklahoma City
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Texas
2 Houston vs. 15 Marshall (SBC)

1-seed Duke

Duke holds steady in the No. 1 spot of bracketology, picking up a dominant win over Notre Dame, which helped improve its analytic profile. The Blue Devils now face a challenge against Virginia on the weekend.

2-seed Houston

Houston holds onto its spot on the 2-seed line despite an early-week loss against Kansas, which saw it lose ground in the Big 12 standings. The Cougars will see Colorado on the weekend.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 Miami vs. 9 Georgia
Greenville
5 Arkansas vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Kansas vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Philadelphia
6 Iowa vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Virginia vs. 14 Navy (Patriot)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Clemson
2 Purdue vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed UConn

UConn is coming off a win over St. John’s, which will strengthen its position on the 1-seed line of bracketology moving forward. The Huskies will face Seton Hall on Saturday as the Big East schedule continues.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue remains the top 2-seed contender in bracketology despite not playing since the last update. The Boilermakers will face Michigan State in a stand-alone Thursday matchup as Big Ten play rolls on.

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Wright State (Horizon)
8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 SMU
San Diego
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Portland
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Indiana/SDSU
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 UC Irvine (Big West)
St. Louis
7 NC State vs. 10 Auburn
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after it beat Minnesota in the midweek slate. The Wolverines will now set their sights on Illinois, whom they will play in a stand-alone game on Friday night.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State strengthened its position on the 2-seed line with a midweek win against Utah. Now, the Cyclones will face a tougher test against fellow Big 12 contender Texas Tech at home.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Morehead State/Bethune Cookman
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 Texas A&M
Tampa
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Oklahoma City
6 BYU vs. 11 Ohio State/Santa Clara
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
Tampa
7 Villanova vs. 10 UCLA
2 Florida (SEC) vs. 15 Merrimack (MAAC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona has settled into the No. 3 overall seed in bracketology, holding steady after a win against Baylor during the midweek slate. The Wildcats are set to face Kansas on Saturday as the Big 12 schedule continues.

2-seed Florida

Florida continues to shift up the bracketology seed line, as it looks to solidify its spot among the 2-seed contenders with a recent win over Texas. The Gators will face Arkansas next, with a chance to clinch a share of the SEC regular season title.