2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections shift after No. 1 overall seed changes hands

The bracketology field takes another shift during the midweek slate, with no result bigger than Kansas’ win over Arizona, ending the No. 1 overall seed’s unbeaten run through the season. Now, the debate once again heats up around Michigan’s chase of the Wildcats.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

With more action to come this weekend, including key games for top seeds and pivotal bubble matchups, there is plenty on the line. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Arizona, Duke, Houston
Last four byes: Georgia, Miami, UCF, UCLA
Last four in: USC, Texas, Ohio State, SDSU
First four out: New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Missouri, TCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 Morgan State (MEAC)
16 Merrimack (MAAC) vs. 16 NJIT (AEC)
11 USC vs. 11 Texas
11 Ohio State vs. 11 SDSU

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/Morgan State
8 Villanova vs. 9 St. Mary’s
Portland
5 Louisville vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Winthrop (Big South)
Oklahoma City
6 St. Louis (A10) vs. 11 USC/Texas
3 Kansas vs. 14 Portland State (Big Sky)
Philadelphia
7 Clemson vs. 10 Georgia
2 Purdue vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan returns to the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology following Big Ten wins over Ohio State and Northwestern, paired with a loss by Arizona. The Wolverines will now face bubble contender UCLA next.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue returns to the 2-seed line after picking up a key win against Nebraska, helping the two Big Ten teams swap spots on the bracket. The Boilermakers will face Iowa over the weekend, looking to continue the rise.

South (Houston)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston vs. 16 Harvard (Ivy)
8 Auburn vs. 9 Indiana
Portland
5 BYU vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
Tampa
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Ohio State/SDSU
3 Florida (SEC) vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Philadelphia
7 NC State vs. 10 UCF
2 Illinois vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed Houston

Houston completes the move onto the 1-seed line, sliding above multiple contenders in bracketology with a win over Utah, allowing them to capitalize on other losses. The Cougars will face Kansas State next on the schedule.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois remains on the 2-seed line once again, dropping a second straight game against Wisconsin to push them out of the 1-seed mix and closer to the 3-seed chasers. The Fighting Illini are not scheduled to play again until Sunday against Indiana.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Merrimack/NJIT
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 UCLA
Tampa
5 Virginia vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Buffalo
6 St. John’s vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Nebraska vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 SMU
2 Iowa State vs. 15 UT Martin (OVC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona’s unbeaten run and grasp on the No. 1 overall bracketology spot ran out with a loss against Kansas, allowing Michigan to reclaim the top spot. The Wildcats look to rebound quickly with a game against Texas Tech.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State got its chance to battle for a 1-seed spot, but suffered a loss against TCU during the midweek schedule to disrupt the rise. The Cyclones now face a challenge against Kansas, hoping to prevent a drop into the 3-seed range.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Appalachian State (SBC)
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 Texas A&M
San Diego
5 Arkansas vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Cal Baptist (WAC)
Greenville
6 Tennessee vs. 11 Santa Clara (WCC)
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
Buffalo
7 Iowa vs. 10 Miami
2 UConn (Big East) vs. 15 LIU (NEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence on the 1-seed line, not dropping after a weekend loss, and rebounding well against Pittsburgh. The Blue Devils see Clemson next up in the ACC schedule, with a chance to create more separation.

1-seed UConn

UConn dropped off the 1-seed line with a loss, but got help from surrounding teams to quickly bounce back into the top 2-seed position after a win over Butler. The Huskies now face Georgetown as they look to get back onto the top seed line.