2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections spark 1-seed, bubble debate

As mid-major conference tournaments begin across college basketball, this is the final bracketology update without any automatic bids locked in for March Madness. Meanwhile, the high-major conferences enter the final weekend of their regular season.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

With more action to come this weekend, including key games for top seeds and pivotal bubble matchups, there is plenty on the line. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
Last four byes: Missouri, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas
Last four in: Santa Clara, SMU, Indiana, Auburn
First four out: Cincinnati, New Mexico, VCU, SDSU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Tennessee State (OVC) vs. 16 UMBC (AEC)
16 Howard (MEAC) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC)
11 Santa Clara vs. 11 Auburn
11 SMU vs. 11 Indiana

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Howard/Bethune Cookman
8 Iowa vs. 9 UCF
Portland
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Kansas vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Oklahoma City
6 St. Mary’s vs. 11 SMU/Indiana
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
St. Louis
7 Villanova vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Illinois vs. 15 Central Arkansas (ASUN)

1-seed Duke

Duke continues to build its resume as the No. 1 overall seed, picking up a dominant win over NC State in the midweek schedule. The Blue Devils will now prepare to face North Carolina in the final regular season matchup of the year.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois picked up a big win over Oregon to keep them steady on the 2-seed line entering the final weekend of the regular season. The Fighting Illini will face Maryland on the weekend before preparing for the Big Ten Tournament.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 UCLA
San Diego
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Greenville
6 Louisville vs. 11 Santa Clara/Auburn
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Navy (Patriot)
Tampa
7 Miami vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Florida vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed UConn

UConn did not play in the midweek slate as it looks to hold onto the final 1-seed spot in bracketology. The Huskies will play Marquette before looking toward the postseason run, as they hope to hold off Florida using the head-to-head result.

2-seed Florida

Florida continues to make its case for a rise onto the 1-seed line with a midweek win over Mississippi State. The Gators will face Kentucky next, needing to run through the conference tournament for a shot at leaping above UConn.

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Tennessee State/UMBC
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 TCU
Tampa
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
St. Louis
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Texas
3 Purdue vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Oklahoma City
7 Wisconsin vs. 10 Missouri
2 Houston vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan continues to hunt down a potential No. 1 overall seed, sitting safe on the 1-seed line as it prepares for the final two games of the regular season. First, the Wolverines will face Iowa, then play against Michigan State.

2-seed Houston

Houston added a win over Baylor to its resume during the week, helping solidify itself on the 2-seed line. The Cougars will wrap up their regular season schedule with Oklahoma State on Saturday.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Wright State (Horizon)
8 Georgia vs. 9 Clemson
Philadelphia
5 St. John’s vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Alabama vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Portland
6 BYU vs. 11 Miami (OH)
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Hawaii (Big West)
Buffalo
7 Kentucky vs. 10 NC State
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Merrimack (MAAC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona holds steady as the No. 3 overall seed in bracketology, picking up a midweek win over Iowa State. The Wildcats will finish out the Big 12 schedule against Colorado, looking to enter the conference tournament locked into their seed line.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State has made a late rise in the bracketology projections, rising onto the 2-seed line with two games left on the schedule. The Spartans will face Rutgers before finishing the regular season against Michigan.