2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology shifts with early bubble results

Tuesday saw multiple bubble teams in action across college basketball, with mixed results. ACC teams Stanford and Virginia Tech took losses which should leave them on the wrong side of things, while Cincinnati and SMU added wins to the resume.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results. Stay tuned for the latest projections. Last updated at 11:45 pm ET on 3/11.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
Last four byes: Santa Clara, NC State, UCF, Texas
Last four in: Missouri, VCU, SMU, Auburn
First four out: New Mexico, SDSU, Indiana, Oklahoma

First Four (Dayton)

16 Howard (MEAC) vs. 16 Montana (Big Sky)
16 LEHIGH (Patriot) vs. 16 Florida A&M (SWAC)
11 Missouri vs. 11 SMU
11 VCU vs. 11 Auburn

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 FURMAN (SoCon)
8 Iowa vs. 9 St. Louis (A10)
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Oklahoma City
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
St. Louis
7 Georgia vs. 10 NC State
2 Illinois vs. 15 QUEENS (ASUN)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after picking up a win over North Carolina to close the regular season. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois remains on the 2-seed line after winning their final regular season game against Maryland. The Fighting Illini will then determine where they land in the bracket with the success of their Big Ten Tournament run.

South (Houston)

Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 LEHIGH/Florida A&M
8 UCLA vs. 9 Clemson
Philadelphia
5 Louisville vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Kansas vs. 13 NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
Greenville
6 Tennessee vs. 11 UCF
3 Purdue vs. 14 WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
Buffalo
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Texas
2 UConn vs. 15 LIU (NEC)

1-seed Florida

Florida picks up a win over Kentucky to close out the regular season, helping them jump UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

2-seed UConn

UConn suffered a loss against Marquette to close the regular season, dropping their grasp on the 1-seed line. Now, the Huskies must make a deep Big East Tournament run to get back into the mix for the top seed-line.

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 SIENA (MAAC)
8 Kentucky vs. 9 TCU
Portland
5 Arkansas vs. 12 HIGH POINT (Big South)
4 Virginia vs. 13 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
St. Louis
6 North Carolina vs. 11 VCU/Auburn
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Sam Houston (CUSA)
Oklahoma City
7 Villanova vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Houston vs. 15 TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their final regular season game against Michigan State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains in a large debate over the final 2-seed spot, but is able to hold on after a win over Oklahoma State to close the regular season. Their spot in bracketology will ultimately come down to the Big 12 Tournament results.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Howard/Montana
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 Ohio State
Tampa
5 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 HOFSTRA (CAA)
Portland
6 BYU vs. 11 Missouri/SMU
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 UC Irvine (Big West)
Buffalo
7 Miami vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Michigan State vs. 15 UMBC (AEC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona remains in the mix with Duke and Michigan to land the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after beating Colorado to close the regular season. The Wildcats would need a Big 12 title and losses by those above them, but are at no risk of dropping to the 2-seed line.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State remains on the 2-seed line despite a loss in its regular season finale against Michigan. The Spartans can still move up the board with a strong Big Ten Tournament performance.