2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch features key movement in top conferences

The NCAA Tournament bubble shifts once again, with teams jockeying for position in the picture. As stock rises and falls across the country, each week provides multiple new datapoints to consider.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

NC State (27) – Stock Up

NC State went through its share of ups and downs during non-conference play, and even into the new year as Will Wade figured out the pecking order of his first-year roster. Now, they have won five of six and continue to rise above the bubble conversation in most analytic models.

The Wolfpack still have work to do locking up their spot in the field, but that road continues with games against Wake Forest and SMU over the next week. In February, they face a long stretch of potential NCAA Tournament teams from the ACC.

Texas (38) – Stock Up

Texas has seen its stock reach the bubble line, but then fluctuate over the past couple weeks with wins and losses. The Longhorns most recent win against Georgia certainly brought then to the right side of the bubble, with a chance to move up further.

The schedule now features a game at Auburn, followed by a road game against Oklahoma. A two-win week could see them rise above the Last Four In, and potentially make this list again.

Indiana (33) – Stock Up

Indiana picked up its biggest win of the season against Purdue, helping them stay in the Big Ten conversation and insure their spot on the right side of the bubble in this week’s bracketology update. This comes after a win over Rutgers snapped their four-game losing streak.

The Hoosiers have now started the process of undoing damage from early this month, setting them up for games against UCLA, USC and Wisconsin which all join them on the bubble. The coming week-plus will help define where they finish the season.

Baylor (60) – Stock Down

Baylor was on the wrong side a game against stock-rising TCU this week, marking their third-straight defeat in Big 12 play. The run of bad form has almost taken them out of the bubble conversation completely after being a team in the field just weeks ago.

The Bears play Cincinnati and West Virginia on the road this week, a critical run toward the right side of the bubble. If they can survive, they will still need wins over some top teams to get the needed boost.

LSU (46) – Stock Down

LSU looked like a team with opportunity over recent weeks, benefitting from losses by other bubble teams as they slowly made it into the conversation. However, losses against Florida and Arkansas bring them to 1-6 in the SEC.

The Tigers are running out of chances to make a resume worth viewing regardless of the computer numbers, but have upcoming games against Mississippi State and South Carolina to get back on track before facing more Q1 opponents.

Seton Hall (57) – Stock Down

Seton Hall continues its struggle in bubble watch conversations, falling from the right side of the bubble just weeks ago. The latest loss came against DePaul, a difficult blow to rebound from in the weak Big East slate.

The Pirates have now fallen far off the pack which is looking at the bubble, requiring some big wins and a long string of good results to get back on track. The start must come against Xavier and Marquette this week.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (30), Duke (2), Louisville (19), NC State (27), North Carolina (24), SMU (32), Virginia (16)
On the bubble: Miami (36), Virginia Tech (55)
More to do: California (52), Stanford (71), Wake Forest (66)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (1), BYU (13), Houston (10), Iowa State (7), Kansas (14), Texas Tech (17)
On the bubble: TCU (44), UCF (41)
More to do: Baylor (60), Oklahoma State (72), West Virginia (65)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (6), Iowa (22), Michigan (3), Michigan State (9), Nebraska (5), Purdue (11)
On the bubble: Indiana (33), Ohio State (37), UCLA (43), USC (51), Wisconsin (42)
More to do: Washington (61)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (21), Arkansas (20), Auburn (28), Florida (15), Georgia (31), Kentucky (35), Tennessee (23), Vanderbilt (12)
On the bubble: LSU (46), Texas (38), Texas A&M (40)
More to do: Missouri (73)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (25), UConn (8), Villanova (34)
On the bubble: Butler (50)
More to do: Seton Hall (57)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (4), St. Louis (18)
On the bubble: New Mexico (39), Santa Clara (45), SDSU (47), St. Mary’s (29), Utah State (26)
More to do: George Mason (67), Miami (OH) (53), VCU (49)