2026 NCAA Tournament projections: ESPN gives Bracketology a July shake up

With just over three months to go until college basketball season, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is already shaking up his latest Bracketology projections. He made some big changes as the summer rolls along.

Houston once again comes in as the No. 1 overall seed, but Washington is now the first team out of the preseason bracket. The Cougars are looking to build off last season’s Final Four berth and appear poised for success once again with plenty of key contributors returning in 2025-26.

However, there were some changes in Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for ESPN. Here’s where he sees the bracket as the calendar flips to August.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Ole Miss, Georgia, Maryland, Baylor
Last Four In: Texas A&M, Iowa, Miami, SMU
First Four Out: Washington, Indiana, Marquette, Nebraska
Next Four Out: Clemson, Kansas State, Virginia, Georgetown

Washington, fresh off its debut season in the Big Ten, is Joe Lunardi’s first team out of his ESPN Bracketology update. The Huskies went 13-18 overall and 4-16 in Big Ten play last year, but won big in the transfer portal with seven additions as part of On3’s No. 3-ranked transfer class.

Still, Lunardi has UW as the first team out behind SMU, which became the last team in ahead of Andy Enfield’s second season at the helm. The Mustangs finished fourth in the ACC a season ago, but has a Top-15 recruiting class on its way.

ESPN Bracketology: Midwest Region – Chicago

1. Houston vs. 16. Northern Colorado
8. Texas vs. 9. Creighton
5. Alabama vs. 12. Yale
4. Illinois vs. 13. McNeese State

6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Texas A&M/Miami
3. Tennessee vs. 14. UNC Wilmington
7. Wisconsin vs. 10. Ole Miss
2. UConn vs. 15. Siena

In 2025, Houston made its first national championship appearance since the Hakeem Olajuwon-led Phi Slamma Jamma team of 1984. Although the Cougars fell short against Florida, they still have plenty of continuity this season, meaning another run to a No. 1 seed could be in the cards.

Joe Lunardi has some other interesting teams in his projected East Region, including UConn. The Huskies failed to win a third straight championship last year, but made some big additions this offseason to help replace some departing production.

West Region – San Jose

1. Duke vs. 16. Southeast Missouri State/Norfolk State
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Maryland
5. Gonzaga vs. 12. UC Santa Barbara
4. UCLA vs. 13. Utah Valley

6. Kansas vs. 11. Iowa/SMU
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Furman
7. USC vs. 10. VCU
2. BYU vs. 15. Navy

With Cooper Flagg now in the NBA as the No. 1 overall pick, Duke will now look to continue the momentum built by last year’s Final Four run. The Blue Devils have another strong recruiting class coming in, led by twins Cam and Cayden Boozer, as they look to keep things going in 2025-26.

At the No. 2 seed, though, Joe Lunardi has BYU moving up a line. The Cougars made the biggest splash on the recruiting trail this cycle, landing top overall recruit AJ Dybantsa, who’s already generating buzz as the potential No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

East Region – Washington, D.C.

1. Florida vs. 16. Vermont
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Oklahoma
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Illinois State
4. Arkansas vs. 13. Miami (OH)

6. North Carolina vs. 11. San Diego State
3. Iowa State vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. NC State vs. 10. Georgia
2. Michigan vs. 15. Youngstown State

After winning the national championship, Florida became one of the offseason’s biggest winners. The Gators notably got Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu back while also adding key players such as Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland from the portal.

Michigan then came in as Joe Lunardi’s No. 2 seed in ESPN’s East Region projections as the Wolverines continue to generate buzz this offseason. Following a huge debut season for Dusty May, UM landed the No. 4-ranked portal class – headlined by No. 1 overall transfer Yaxel Lendeborg.

South Region – Houston

1. Purdue vs. 16. Jackson State/Long Island
8. Missouri vs. 9. Baylor
5. Louisville vs. 12. Liberty
4. Auburn vs. 13. High Point

6. Ohio State vs. 11. Memphis
3. Arizona vs. 14. Arkansas State
7. Oregon vs. 10. Vanderbilt
2. St. John’s vs. 15. Florida Gulf Coast

A No. 4 seed last year, Purdue’s only notable departure was Myles Colvin. The program has returning core led by Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer – along with transfer center Oscar Cluff – and that could put the Boilermakers in the conversation for the 1-seed line this year.

Additionally, Joe Lunardi projects St. John’s to be back as a No. 2 seed after the Red Storm broke out in Year 2 under Rick Pitino. The program once again used the transfer portal to reload, bringing in six names. Ian Jackson and Bryce Hopkins are among the most notable additions.

Practice is set to begin in September, but the preparations are already underway for the 2025-26 season. It all gets underway Nov. 3.