2026 NCAA Tournament projections: ESPN shakes up Bracketology after second week of college basketball

It’s never too early to start getting excited for March Madness. After a thrilling second week of college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his 2025-26 Bracketology.

Lunardi had plenty to consider. There were some stellar matchups between No. 1 Houston/No. 22 Auburn, No. 3 UConn/No. 7 BYU, No. 5 Arizona/No. 15 UCLA, and Tuesday night’s Champions Classic games. The higher-ranked team came out victorious in all of those games, except No. 17 Michigan State‘s stunning 83-66 beatdown of No. 12 Kentucky in The Garden.

Of course, before we can examine who Lunardi believes will be riding high into the postseason, we must check out which teams he has on the bubble. Look below to see Lunardi’s complete predictions for March Madness.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Iowa, Texas, Georgetown
Last Four In: Georgia, Nebraska, Cincinnati, Utah State
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Clemson, Kansas State, Villanova
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, SMU, Oklahoma, Maryland

Creighton, Iowa, Texas, and Georgetown round out the ‘Last Four Byes’, while Georgia, Nebraska, Cincinnati, and Utah State just sneak in as part of the ‘Last Four In’.

Georgetown and Iowa have opened the season with unblemished 4-0 records, while Creighton (No. 19 Gonzaga) and Texas (No. 6 Duke) have suffered blowout losses to two of the sports’ best teams. Ed Cooley‘s Hoyas have been one of the surprise teams of the early-season slate, as it owns wins over Maryland and Clemson after beating Kentucky at Rupp Arena in an exhibition matchup.

Meanwhile, other squads like Virginia did wonders for their postseason stock this past week. Last week, Lunardi placed the Hoosiers in the ‘Last Four Byes’ category. But, after blowing out four mid-major teams to open its first season under Ryan Odom, the Cavaliers are comfortably included in Lunardi’s March Madness picture. Let’s check out who else Lunardi expects to be dancing in March.

ESPN Bracketology: South (Houston)

1 Houston vs. 16 Navy
8 Saint Mary’s vs. 9 Oregon
5 Michigan State vs. 12 Yale
4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point
6 Vanderbilt vs. 11 Saint Louis
3 BYU vs. 14 St. Thomas
7 Auburn vs. 10 Iowa
2 Illinois vs. 15 Vermont

Joe Lunardi believes Houston could be playing in its own backyard to kick off NCAA Tournament. The Cougars look phenomenal to open the season, as they blew out three mid-majors and held off No. 22 Auburn 73-72 in Birmingham Sunday night. The program is still seeking its first National Championship under Kelvin Sampson after falling just short in the title game last season.

Alas, in this scenario, Houston wouldn’t have an easy road to the Final Four. Lunardi’s vision for the South Region would also include Illinois, BYU and star freshman AJ Dybantsa, a high-powered Alabama offense and a Michigan State team that has already defeated both Arkansas and Kentucky.

ESPN Bracketology: West (San Jose)

1 UConn vs. 16 Florida Gulf Coast
8 USC vs. 9 Virginia
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Hawaii
6 Arkansas vs. 11 Liberty
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Cal Baptist
7 Ohio State vs. 10 Georgetown
2 Arizona vs. 15 Montana

After being eliminated in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season, UConn is back in the hunt for a national title. The Huskies’ roster is deep this season, and could simply outlast their opponents in March. They are 4-0 after holding off No. 7 BYU 86-84, thanks to 21 points from star center Tarris Reed Jr., in Boston Saturday night.

Of course, UConn shouldn’t expect a cakewalk to its third National Championship in four years. Lunardi is also projecting Arizona (who holds wins over No. 3 Florida and No. 15 UCLA), a dominant Gonzaga team, Tennessee, and Texas Tech in the West side of the bracket.

ESPN Bracketology: East (Washington D.C.)

1 Duke vs. 16 Long Island/Norfolk State
8 Baylor vs. 9 Ole Miss
5 UCLA vs. 12 Northern Iowa
4 St. John’s vs. 13 Towson
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Cincinnati/Utah State
3 Florida vs. 14 Youngstown State
7 NC State vs. 10 Texas
2 Michigan vs. 15 Siena

Duke came up short in the Final Four last season, but Lunardi expects the Blue Devils to have another chance at the crown this spring. In fairness, the Blue Devils are loaded, with highly-touted freshman Cameron Boozer leading the charge.

In Lunardi’s current predictions, Duke’s young talent would have to top experienced teams like UCLA and Michigan to reach the Final Four. The Wolverines brought in the No. 4 class in On3’s 2025 Team Transfer Portal Rankings and are off to a 3-0 start, including close wins over Wake Forest and TCU.

ESPN Bracketology: Midwest (Chicago)

1 Purdue vs. 16 Little Rock/Southern
8 Missouri vs. 9 San Diego State
5 North Carolina vs. 12 South Florida
4 Iowa State vs. 13 McNeese State
6 Kansas vs. 11 Georgia/Nebraska
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Troy
7 Indiana vs. 10 Creighton
2 Louisville vs. 15 East Tennessee State

Purdue is battle-tested. The team returned numerous veterans from last season, including All-American point guard Braden Smith, First Team All-Big Ten selection Trey Kaufman-Renn, and sharpshooting guard Fletcher Loyer. Evidently, Lunardi expects the Boilermakers’ experience to play to their advantage.

Nonetheless, up-and-comers like Louisville will pose a serious threat to Purdue’s national championship hopes. The Cardinals, led by head coach Pat Kelsey, boast one of the strongest backcourts in the country (Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell) that can put up points in bunches. Kentucky and Kansas are also present in this Region, but look to be in trouble unless stars Jayden Quaintance and Darryn Peterson can get back to full strength by March.