2026 NCAA Tournament projections: ESPN shakes up Bracketology after third week of college basketball

After the third week of college basketball, things are starting to shift. It also led to a shakeup in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament as Feast Week continues.

A new No. 1 seed entered the fray as Duke jumped up to the 1-line alongside Purdue, Arizona and Houston. There was also some shuffling farther down the projected bracket as the national picture slowly comes into focus through non-conference play.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for teams to get back in the mix. Here are ESPN’s full Bracketology projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament after college basketball’s third week.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Clemson, Nebraska, Virginia, Creighton
Last Four In: Texas, Georgetown, SMU, Georgia
First Four Out: Villanova, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: Kansas State, Miami, Oklahoma, Santa Clara

Multiple power conference teams sit squarely on the bubble as December quickly approaches. Georgia comes in as the last team in the projected bracket, according to ESPN’s projected bracket, while Villanova is the first team out.

Following a season-opening loss to BYU, Villanova has won five straight games ahead of a Thanksgiving break. The Wildcats will have an opportunity to bolster their resume Dec. 9, though, with a matchup against Michigan.

ESPN Bracketology: South (Houston)

1. Houston vs. 16. Navy
8. Missouri vs. 9. Oregon
5. UCLA vs. 12. Northern Iowa
4. St. John’s vs. 13. Hawaii
6. Arkansas vs. 11. Yale
3. BYU vs. 14. Cal Baptist
7. NC State vs. 10. Virginia
2. Michigan vs. 15. Vermont

The No. 3 team in the country, according to the latest AP poll, Houston is putting together another dominant season after last year’s run to the Final Four. The Cougars have lost just one game, falling to Tennessee in the Players Era tournament in Las Vegas, after a six-game win streak to start the year.

Elsewhere, Michigan picked up a resounding victory at the Players Era, putting up 102 points against Auburn to flex its muscle. Wednesday’s game against Gonzaga provides another chance for the Wolverines to get a marquee victory in the event.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona vs. 16. Wright State
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. Utah State
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Georgetown/Georgia
4. Tennessee vs. 13. UNC Wilmington
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Texas/SMU
3. Illinois vs. 14. South Dakota State
7. Ohio State vs. 10. Creighton
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Montana

Through the first three weeks of the season, Arizona has multiple high-level victories across six games. The Wildcats’ most notable win came against then-No. 3 UConn in a thrilling back-and-forth affair in Storrs last week as part of a 6-0 start.

On the 2-seed line, Gonzaga’s signature victory to date came against Alabama with a 95-85 win at Players Era. That marked the Bulldogs’ second ranked win of the young season as they sought a third Wednesday night against Michigan.

East (Washington, D.C.)

1. Duke vs. 16. Southern/SIU Edwardsville
8. Indiana vs. 9. Ole Miss
5. Auburn vs. 12. USF
4. Iowa State vs. 13. McNeese State
6. Vanderbilt vs. 11. Saint Louis
3. Michigan State vs. 14. East Tennessee State
7. Saint Mary’s vs. 10. Nebraska
2. UConn vs. 15. Siena

The newest 1-seed, according to ESPN’s Bracketology, Duke has been impressive through the non-conference portion of the schedule. The Blue Devils got a marquee win over Kansas – which was without star freshman Darryn Peterson – at home as they began the year with a 7-0 record.

UConn was previously on the 1-seed line, but is now a No. 2 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology. The Huskies fell to Arizona last week, but got a victory over BYU to bolster their resume.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Purdue vs. 16. Long Island/Norfolk State
8. USC vs. 9. Clemson
5. Kentucky vs. 12. Akron
4. Alabama vs. 13. High Point
6. Kansas vs. 11. Liberty
3. Florida vs. 14. Troy
7. Baylor vs. 10. Iowa
2. Louisville vs. 15. Florida Gulf Coast

Joe Lunardi’s No. 1 overall seed in his latest Bracketology, Purdue has put together quite the resume so far. The Boilermakers have victories over Alabama on the road and Texas Tech at home amid a strong non-conference schedule.

Louisville also held strong as a No. 2 seed as Pat Kelsey continues the impressive start to his tenure with the Cardinals. The biggest win of the season came in grand fashion against Kentucky with an offensive display in the early part of the schedule.

Some top teams are starting to emerge through the first three weeks of the college basketball season. Feast Week has already brought some key results, with more to follow as the 2026 NCAA Tournament projections start to change even more.