Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see big changes after pivotal weekend

The latest ESPN bracketology is here as Joe Lunardi shook up his 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions with conference play rolling on. When it comes to January, that’s when the good stuff really begins!

What lies below are the teams on the bubble, good and bad. Plus, we’ll dive into each region and break down the projected matchups.

We’re still a couple of months away from the tournament actually beginning, so the bracketology prediction will certainly change. Without further ado, let’s dive into the bubble teams first!

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: USC, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Indiana
Last Four In: Texas A&M, Ohio State, UCLA, New Mexico
First Four Out: TCU, Creighton, LSU, Baylor
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Stanford, Virginia Tech

The last four bye teams are in a good spot in this current iteration of bracketology. Wisconsin’s win over undefeated Michigan really propelled them this week. TCU, Creighton, LSU and Baylor are fighting for their bubble lives in mid-January.

West (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Dartmouth
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Utah Valley
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 USC
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Southern Miss

Arizona is undefeated and at the top of bracketology right now out in the west. Defending champion Florida is on their side of the bracket too, which would be quite the Sweet 16 matchup. Gonzaga is quietly in the No. 2 spot with Illinois and Tennessee on their side.

Midwest (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Merrimack/UMass-Lowell
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 UCLA/New Mexico
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 McNeese
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Austin Peay
No. 7 St. John’s vs. No. 10 Wisconsin
No. 2 Vanderbilt vs. No. 15 UT Martin

Michigan lost a tight one to Wisconsin but it didn’t drop them from the No. 1 seed in this bracketology projection. Seton Hall should be monitored as they could rise in their seeding as well. Vandy is undefeated right now and might be a sleeper national title contender.

East (Washington D.C.)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Miami
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 George Mason
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Temple
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Long Island

Dan Hurley and the Huskies are looking for a third national title in four years and a No. 1 seed in this latest bracketology is a good sign so far! UNC and Michigan State are due for a second round matchup and Duke and Nebraska could match up in the Sweet 16. This one is loaded.

South (Houston)

No. 1 Iowa State vs. No. 16 Prairie View/UMES
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 NC State
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Murray State
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 ETSU
No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 6 Texas A&M/Ohio State
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 SMU vs. No. 10 Kentucky
No. 2 Purdue vs. No 14 Portland State

Iowa State is another undefeated No. 1 seed in the bracketology predictions as of mid-January. They’re rolling right now and imagine a matchup with rival Iowa in the second round! Alabama comes in at No. 4 and on that same side. Purdue might have a clear path to the Elite Eight.