Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions see big movement as February arrives

As February arrives with January 2026 coming to an end, an updated bracketology is here from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. He shook up his 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions as we get closer to March and the madness of it all.

There’s plenty of teams on the bubble, looking to solid their resume as time slips away. Below, we’ll dive into each region and break down the projected matchups from Lunardi’s latest.

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is on everyone’s mind, and whether or not your favorite team will be included remains to be seen. Check out the bracketology prediction from Lunardi below, diving into the bubble teams to start it all off.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Indiana, UCLA, New Mexico, Miami
Last Four In: USC, Ohio State, San Diego State, Texas
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, California, Seton Hall, Santa Clara
Next Four Out: Missouri, TCU, George Mason, VCU

USC and Ohio State get two more Big Ten teams in the field, while Texas sneaks in during Sean Miller’s first season. Disappointment comes to fruition for teams like Virginia Tech and Seton Hall, but there’s still plenty of time between now and when the field locks.

West (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Merrimack
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 SMU
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Belmont
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Ohio State
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 Indiana
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 UT Martin

Arizona remains undefeated, and they’re the top team in the nation at the moment. A region featuring the Wildcats with Gonzaga as the No. 2 team would be a gauntlet for any of these 16 squads to get through to the Final Four.

East (Washington DC)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 USC/San Diego State
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 Winthrop
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 New Mexico
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 ETSU

Duke, led by Cameron Boozer, is rising in the eyes of many, but so is No. 2 Illinois. They’ve been phenomenal inside the Big Ten, but don’t discount the reigning champions in Florida coming out of this region at No. 3. Texas Tech is sneaky, as well.

South (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Harvard
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 SF Austin
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Miami
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Portland State
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Navy

UConn is hoping to remind everyone why they were atop the college basketball world for multiple seasons after a slight reprieve in 2025. They’re No. 1 in the South, according to Lunardi, but with it being played in Houston, the No. 2-seed in the Cougars could see a bit of an advantage.

Midwest (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Vermont
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Tulsa
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 North Dakota State
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Austin Peay

Michigan has been revitalized under Dusty May, and they’ll lead the charge in the Windy City, per Lunardi. Purdue is no slouch though, coming in at No. 3, while numerous blue-blooded programs are listed throughout the Midwest in Kansas and UNC.