Bracketology: ESPN shakes up 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions after Week 5 of college basketball

It’s now mid-December and the college basketball season is in full swing. With conference play just around the corner for most teams, ESPN took the time to look at its Bracketology for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

There’s plenty of movement in ESPN’s bracketology. That includes four new teams in the bracket from a week ago. So, there’s plenty to break down.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is the Bracketology expert, and he puts out his updates weekly. The latest came out on Tuesday morning. Here’s a look at how everything shook out.

ESPN Bracketology: On the bubble

Last Four Byes: Indiana, UCLA, LSU, Oklahoma State
Last Four In: NC State, UCF, Baylor, Arizona State
First Four Out: Villanova, Oklahoma, Boise State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Colorado, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wake Forest

The bubble is shifting rapidly right now, as those teams on the edge continue to fight for position. Some of these teams have been sitting here for a while, but a few new teams have also made their way into position here. That, notably, includes Arizona State, who is among the next four in.

There are a couple of teams slipping on the bubble too. Among them are Baylor and NC State. While both are still in the NCAA Tournament field, the latest bracketology has them listed among the “Last Four In.”

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan vs. 16. Vermont/Lindenwood
8. Miami vs. 9. Seton Hall
5. Florida vs. 12. Belmont
4. Kansas vs. 13. Northern Colorado 
6. St. John’s vs. 11. NC State/UCF
3. Vanderbilt vs. 14. Liberty
7. USC vs. 10. LSU
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. St. Thomas

The Michigan Wolverines remain the top-seed in the Midwest. They also remain the top overall seed, according to the latest bracketology from ESPN. This, as the Wolverines remain unbeaten and picked up wins over Villanova and Maryland last week.

Elsewhere in this bracket, LSU and St. Thomas are new to the NCAA Tournament field. Meanwhile, there is a lot of movement in the seeding itself. Among the risers are Miami, Seton Hall, and Northern Colorado.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. Duke vs. 16. Colgate
8. Utah State vs. 9. Ohio State
5. Nebraska vs. 12. Akron
4. Houston vs. 13. East Tennessee State
6. Virginia vs. 11. Baylor/Arizona State
3. Alabama vs. 14. Lipscomb
7. Iowa vs. 10. Saint Louis
2. Connecticut vs. 15. Troy

Duke is one of the remaining unbeaten teams in college basketball and they’re still projected to earn a No. 1 seed. This comes after a weekend battle against an excellent Michigan State team, which the Blue Devils managed to win. A few days before that, the Blue Devils survived a scare against Florida too.

Troy and Arizona State find themselves newly minted NCAA Tournament teams, according to ESPN’s bracketology. That’s not the only place teams are on the move, though. Utah State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Lipscomb, and Saint Louis are all looking at improved seeding.

West (San José)

1. Arizona vs. 16. Long Island
8. SMU vs. 9. Indiana
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. UNC Wilmington
4. Arkansas vs. 13. Utah Valley
6. Auburn vs. 11. Yale
3. Louisville vs. 14. Hawaii
7. Georgia vs. 10. Oklahoma State
2. Purdue vs. 15. Stephen F. Austin

Arizona is currently being projected as the No. 1 overall seed in the West. This was after they had just one game a week ago, which came in dominant fashion against Alabama to stay unbeaten.

In the West Bracket, ESPN’s bracketology didn’t project any completely new teams to the NCAA Tournament field this week. Still, seeding is shifting all the time. Long Island, UNC Wilmington, Louisville, and Georgia are all looking at improved overall seeding. Utah Valley and Indiana, meanwhile, took a step back.

South (Houston)

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Southern/Norfolk State
8. Clemson vs. 9. Kentucky
5. North Carolina vs. 12. Tulsa
4. Illinois vs. 13. High Point
6. Tennessee vs. 11. Butler
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Siena
7. Saint Mary’s vs. 10. UCLA
2. BYU vs. 15. Youngstown State

It was a busy week for Iowa State. First, the Cyclones got a scare against rival Iowa. Then, they went into a weekend matchup against Eastern Illinois. In the end, Iowa State remained unbeaten and ESPN has the Cyclones as a No. 1 seed.

If there is a region with the least amount of overall movement in ESPN’s bracketology, it’s the South. No new teams appear in this region. Then, only Youngstown State has improved its seed. Some big brands, including UCLA, Tennessee, and North Carolina, slipped in their seeding.