Bracketology insights: Saturday slate sees top teams jockey for 1-seed spots

The projected NCAA Tournament field takes another shift this weekend, with movement coming to the 1-seed line after UConn‘s Friday loss and Duke‘s Saturday loss. Which team takes the spots, and plenty more decisive battles between contending teams will change how each fanbase feels moving forward.

Bracketology insights aims to explain the various ways that Saturday’s results will impact Sunday’s bracketology update, and each conversation about the field moving forward. From matchups between projected top seeds, to jockeying across the bubble, stay up to date with what the game means in a bigger picture.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Saturday’s lineup is headlined by Illinois and Iowa State, along with Houston, making their case for the fourth 1-seed spot. The losses by UConn and Duke open a window for anyone to climb the board.

Check back throughout the night for more insights on the latest results.

Iowa State vs. Baylor

The last bracketology update featured Iowa State on the 2-seed line, as the No. 6 overall seed, while Baylor sat within the Next Four Out. As for the analytics numbers entering the day, Iowa State sat at No. 5 in the NET and KenPom. Baylor sat at No. 49 and No. 44, respectively.

UConn’s Friday loss opened up a window for the chasing pack of 2-seed teams. Iowa State was the first to capitalize, beating Baylor despite a late push. The Cyclones now await the results by Illinois and Houston, which will help determine how the top teams are seeded.

The case for Iowa State to make a leap onto the 1-seed line starts with a 21-2 record, which includes a 5-1 mark in Q1. The only other loss came in Q2, leaving the bottom half of their resume clean. Furthermore, the Cyclones losses came in a two-game skid which lasted a week and both happened on the road, providing two long stretches of dominance to evaluate on either side.

Baylor, also part of the NCAA Tournament picture still, falls to 12-10 overall and 3-7 in Q1. The number of wins and a clean record in the bottom two quadrants help keep them in the conversation, but the overall number of losses and poor start in Big 12 play have pushed them down the pecking order.

North Carolina vs. Duke

North Carolina hosting Duke is always an event across college basketball, but when bracketology stakes come into play it only ramps up the intensity. That was the case here as the Blue Devils looked to hold onto their 1-seed status and the Tar Heels looked to make a big leap from their previous spot as a 7-seed.

Despite only leading for less than one second, North Carolina walked away with a win, adding a marquee win to the resume and establishing themselves in the ACC title race. Meanwhile, it was the first loss of the conference slate for Duke, bringing them back toward the pack.

The Tar Heels get a fifth Q1 win of the season knocking off the NET rankings’ No. 3 team. The Tar Heels are sure to move up from No. 27 in the NET and No. 30 at KenPom, providing them the path to jump at least one seed-line, if not two from their previous spot. Among the teams in that range, none have a win which matches this.

Duke, meanwhile, will sit on the edge of the 1-seed line, missing an opportunity to further separate themselves from the pack of chasing teams. They now sweat out the updated analytic numbers as a group of teams compare resumes behind Arizona and Michigan.

UPDATE: As things stand, Duke is likely to hold onto a 1-seed spot, with Iowa State jumping UConn and Illinois for the No. 4 overall seed, with Houston still in the mix as well.

Michigan State vs. Illinois

In the most recent bracketology update, Illinois sat in the top spot among 2-seed candidates while Michigan State positioned itself as the best 4-seed team in the bracket. With the losses on the 1-seed line, only the Spartans stood in the way of the Fighting Illini in their pursuit of a rise.

Michigan State pulling out an overtime victory provides one of the biggest twists in the schedule, resetting the conversation about the 1-seed line once again. Meanwhile, it promises more movement across the top seeds as things continue to shift around the Spartans.

For Michigan State, there is a guarantee that they will move onto the 3-seed line in Sunday’s bracketology update. Entering as the No. 12 team in the NET and No. 10 at KenPom, they have only solidified their resume which now features six Q1 wins and no losses outside of the top quadrant. It also provides the Spartans with more upward mobility in the coming weeks.

Illinois misses out on a golden opportunity to not only climb onto the 1-seed line, but make a real case for the No. 3 overall seed. The road loss will not ding them hard, leaving them on the 2-seed line, but does create serious intrigue over the 1-seed movement. As things stand, Duke is likely to hold onto a 1-seed spot, with Iowa State jumping UConn and Illinois for the No. 4 overall seed, with Houston still in the mix as well.

BYU vs. Houston

Entering Saturday’s late-night matchup, BYU sat on the 5-seed line while Houston found itself on the 2-seed line with an open window toward the 1-seed conversation. The game doubled as an important Big 12 matchup, as both sets of Cougars looked to stay in touch with the top teams in the standings.

Houston comes away with the victory on the road, handing BYU its fourth consecutive loss in Big 12 play as they struggle to find footing. While both teams remain highly ranked and have the talent to make noise, they are currently headed in opposite directions on the seed-line with one month left to play.

The Cougars entered the day with hope that they could reach the 1-seed line pending the results across college basketball. While they did their part, it appears they will come up just short with a 6-2 record in Q1 and clean slate below, paired with with the No. 6 spot in the NET rankings. However, Houston closes the gap needed to make the leap.

For BYU, the long slide continues. The Cougars have lost four straight games, leaving them likely to drop even further than No. 18 in the NET rankings where they entered the day. The seed-line slide has seen them drop out of hosting duties already, and that goal continues to slip further out of consideration as they see others top their resume.

Bubble movement

• Indiana survived an OT game against Wisconsin, providing a head-to-head result between the two bubble contenders from the Big Ten. The No. 33 NET team tops the No. 43 NET team, further separating their resumes.
• Georgia beat LSU by double digits, helping keep the Bulldogs out of the bubble conversation with teams closer to the cutline. Meanwhile, LSU will drop further in the debate, already on the outside looking in at the Next Four Out.
• UCLA was about to secure a close win against Washington, ensuring that they remain in the Last Four Byes category on Sunday, avoiding a drop into the Last Four In. Washington takes another loss on its resume, keeping them on the peripheral of the bubble conversation.

Stay up to date with the latest bubble movement, and teams shifting their stock each Wednesday with On3’s bubble watch.

Undefeated tracker

Arizona: An 84-47 win over Oklahoma State helped them reach 23-0 on the season.
Miami (OH): A 90-74 win over Marshall in the MAC-SBC Challenge takes them to 24-0.