Coaching Carousel: Examining ripple effects of Texas A&M's decision to fire Jimbo Fisher, why Zach Arnett won't be unemployed for long
Texas A&M’s decision to fire Jimbo Fisher was a bombshell that shook the college football world on Sunday. The move itself wasn’t overly surprising, but the timing and swiftness did catch many off guard.
Fisher is owed over $77 million, including a lump sum of close to $20 million within 60 days of his termination. But while the insane buyout received much of the initial focus, the domino effects of the opening itself are about to become the bigger narrative nationally.
For one, Texas A&M is very, very likely to hire a sitting Power 5 head coach.
Perhaps UTSA’s Jeff Traylor gets a long look (and he should), but similarly to how LSU turned its nose at Billy Napier when he was at Louisiana-Lafayette a couple of years ago, the Aggies will likely dream bigger than promoting the in-state little brother.
That means whether Texas A&M hires Dan Lanning (who I suggested they should target first), Mike Norvell, Mike Elko or some surprise candidate yet to even be mentioned, it’s going to cause a massive ripple effect on the rest of the coaching carousel market — creating other head coach openings and major assistant coaching movements.
Think about the 2021 carousel when Lincoln Riley told reporters he wasn’t interested in LSU’s opening, only to take the USC job a day later.
In a snap, Oklahoma had an opening, and suddenly Notre Dame did too, as Brian Kelly was quickly hired by the Tigers. Miami fired Manny Diaz while he was out recruiting, bringing Mario Cristobal home, which created an opening at Oregon.
I don’t foresee that many dominos this cycle, but lots of jobs will be affected by Texas A&M’s decision to enter the market.
The other notable ripple effects here are the looming transfer portal window, which opens on Dec. 4, and the early signing period.
The Aggies have the No. 8 recruiting class in the 2024 cycle. And while interim head coach Elijah Robinson will do his best to keep together a strong group, the Aggies can’t really be too concerned with short-term losses with the 2023 class.
The priority for Texas A&M needs to be maintaining its current roster.
TAMU was already likely to see real attrition even if Fisher had been retained, but now that the Aggies don’t have a coach (not yet anyway), it’s soon to be open season on one of the most talented rosters in the country.
The Aggies signed what was considered the No. 1 class of all time in 2021, and they’ve since added a couple of Top 10 classes in the last two years. They’re stacked with blue-chip defensive linemen. They have underutilized playmakers like Evan Stewart and Noah Thomas. Raymond Cottrell, a 4-star freshman from the 2023 class, was the first player to enter the portal on Monday. More will do so in the next two weeks.
Coaches across the country are looking to raid Texas A&M’s roster, poaching as many players as possible.
Texas A&M’s administration and NIL collectives face a juggling act we haven’t seen before: Spending over $100 million to fire Fisher and his staff + hire a new head coach and staff, all while doing what it can to keep as much talent as possible in College Station.
Zach Arnett won’t be unemployed long
Mississippi State fired Zach Arnett on Monday less than one year into his tenure, as the decision to promote Mike Leach’s defensive coordinator proved futile after just 10 games on the job.
The Bulldogs are 4-6 in the cellar of the SEC West. Unless they win their next two games (including upsetting a Top 25 Ole Miss team), they’ll snap a 13-season bowl streak.
Their offense, which Arnett inexplicably decided to ditch the team’s ‘Air Raid’ identity in favor of a pro-style offense, has been among the worst in the country. They’re averaging just 13.4 points per game in SEC play and rank 85th in yards per play and 124th in third down offense.
But while Arnett, just 37 and formally the youngest head coach in the SEC, proved unready to be a head coach, he remains a highly-sought after defensive coordinator. His market should be robust.
Arnett hails from the Rocky Long tree, and his 3-3-5 defense will be attractive to plenty of programs, especially out West. Considering Arnett had success coaching opposite Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense in 2021 and 2022, he could be a natural fit at USC working for Lincoln Riley.
Other potential landing spots could include LSU if Brian Kelly moves on from Matt House, or West Virginia and Baylor.
More movement to come in the Mountain West
In the last few days, Andy Avalos is out at Boise State and Brady Hoke was pushed out of the door via retirement at San Diego State, but those won’t be lone two openings in the Mountain West in the coming weeks.
New Mexico, which is 3-7, and Nevada, which is 2-8, are both potential openings to monitor.
Danny Gonzales is well-liked in Albuquerque, but the former Lobos letterman is just 10-30 in four seasons — including 2-19 in MW conference games. Meanwhile, Ken Wilson did win his first conference game in two seasons last month, beating both San Diego State and Nevada, but the former longtime Wolfpack assistant (he coached or worked as the associate AD at Nevada for 24 seasons previously from 1989-2012) has a new AD who could be looking to make her own hire.
Lastly, what Barry Odom has done in Year 1 at UNLV is among the most impressive coaching jobs this season. The former Missouri head coach and Arkansas DC inherited a decent situation from Marcus Arroyo, but Odom has quickly positioned the Rebels atop the MW standings and is 8-2 with a real chance to win 10 games. Odom could be one-and-done in Las Vegas, as he’s a potential candidate for some Power 5 openings depending on the dominios of the cycle.