Dr. Green and White 2025 College Football Analysis, Part Four: Big Ten Championship Scenarios

In the previous installment of this series, we explored the strengths of schedule for all 18 Big Ten teams, the odds for each team to win any number of conference and overall games, and I introduced the odds matrix for various end of season results. For reference, that matrix is repeated below as Table 1.

Today, it is time to dig deeper into the data shown in Table 1. The plan is to explore the various scenarios that are most likely to play out in the 2025 Big Ten football season.

Overall, the simulation results suggest that there are four primary Big Ten contenders. All of them have at least a 10% chance to win the conference and a 30% chance to make the College Football Playoff. No. 2 Penn State (25%) has slightly better odds than No. 3 Ohio State (23%) to win the conference. No. 8 Oregon (15%) and No. 12 Michigan (12%) are the other two primary contenders.

There is a 1-in-4 chance that a team other than the four teams listed above will wind up claiming the Big Ten title. The most likely dark horse contenders are No. 21 Illinois (6%), No. 22 Indiana (4.3%), No. 25 USC (4%) and No. 30 Nebraska (3%). The remaining 10 teams combined have less than an 8% chance to win the conference.

Two other tidbits from Table 4 are that the expected number of Big Ten teams to earn a playoff bid is 2.74 teams and the odds for a Big Ten team to win the national title is 28%.

Big Ten Championship Scenarios

Table 1 provides the raw odds for Big Ten glory, but more insight can be gained by exploring some of the most likely scenarios that will likely impact the Big Ten race. First, let’s look at the set of Big Ten games where one of the primary contenders has a game with one of the other four primary contenders. It turns out there are only three of these games in the 2025 Big Ten regular season:

• Sept. 27: Oregon at Penn State (-7.5)
• Nov. 1: Penn State at Ohio State (-3)
• Nov. 29: Ohio State at Michigan (+2)

Interestingly, the projected two best teams in the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State) both have two games against the other primary contenders, including a game against each other on Nov. 1. The other primary contenders (Oregon and Michigan) each only play only one of the other primary contenders.

If the currently projected favorites were to win every Big Ten game, Ohio State would clinch the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Championship game with a 9-0 conference record and wins over Penn State and Michigan. This is the “most likely” set of projected records in Table 1.

In this scenario, the Buckeyes would likely face Penn State (8-1) in the Big Ten Championship Game as the Nittany Lions would likely win the tiebreaker with Oregon (8-1) and Michigan (8-1) due to a stronger conference strength of schedule. The tiebreaker would default to the combined conference records of the tied teams’ conference opponents and the conference strength of schedule mirrors this data set.

While this is the single most likely scenario, it is also very unlikely that the conference race will play out in exactly this manner. In my disruptive scenario, I assume that there is a historically reasonable number of road upsets overall. 

The key assumption in the disruptive scenario is that upsets are most likely to happen when strong teams are narrow favorites on the road against slightly weaker teams. In the list of games above, Ohio State would get upset on the road at Michigan.

In order to look for other potential disruptive games, the list below shows the set of games where the primary contenders face a secondary contender and/or a primary contender has a game with a projected spread under 10 points.

• Sept. 20: Michigan at Nebraska (+4.5)
• Oct. 11: Ohio State at Illinois (+6)
• Oct. 11: Michigan at USC (+2.5)
• Oct. 18: Indiana at Oregon (-11)
• Oct. 18: Penn State at Iowa (+11.3)
• Nov. 8: Oregon at Iowa (+7.5)
• Nov. 8: Indiana at Penn State (-14.5)
• Nov. 22: USC at Oregon (-12)
• Nov. 22: Nebraska at Penn State (-18)
• Nov. 29: Oregon at Washington (+9)

In the disruptive scenario summarized in Table 1, I also project that Ohio State losses on the road at Illinois and Michigan loses on the road both at Nebraska and at USC. These matchups are highlighted above in italics.

In this scenario, both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines finish conference play at 7-2, leaving Penn State and Oregon to share the regular season title with records of 8-1.

Historically, I use the results of my disruptive scenario as my official forecast. So, I predict a Big Ten Championship Game rematch of Oregon versus Penn State. This time, I have Penn State (-3.5) beating the Ducks by just over a field goal.

But there are obviously several other ways in which the Big Ten race could play out. For the four primary contenders, there are various scenarios involving three-way or even a four-way tie for first place.

As mentioned above, the tiebreakers would likely come down to the combined records of each teams’ conference opponents. In the preseason, this appears to be an advantage for Penn State and a disadvantage for Michigan. Oregon and Ohio State have almost identical conference strengths of schedule between those of the Nittany Lions and Wolverines. 

However, if Michigan were to finish with an 8-1 record and a win over Ohio State, the Wolverines could potentially own a tiebreaker over Penn State, assuming that the Nittany Lions lose to the Buckeyes on Nov. 1.

Potential Pitfalls for Each Primary Contender

More likely than not, no more than two Big Ten teams will finish conference play with fewer than two loses. So the path to Indianapolis for the primary contenders will involve avoiding potential upsets along the way.

In order to finish at at least 8-1 in conference play, Penn State needs to either beat Oregon (+7.5) at home as a favorite on Sept. 27 or steal an upset win against Ohio State (-3). The biggest potential pitfalls are a road game at Iowa (+11.3) on Oct. 18 and a home game against Indiana (+14.5) on Nov. 8. If the Nittany Lions can win three of those four games, a return trip to Indianapolis is likely.

As mentioned above, Ohio State is the only Big Ten team projected to be favored in all nine Big Ten games. The biggest two roadblocks are expected to be the road game at Michigan (+1.7) and the home game against Penn State (+3). However, road games at Illinois (+6.2), Washington (+12) and Wisconsin (+13.6) over a four-week span could be trouble.

Oregon would be in a very strong position with an upset win at Penn State (-7.4). Even with a loss, the Ducks have a great shot to return to Indianapolis if they can survive road trips to Iowa (+7.5), Washington (+8.9) and a visit from Indiana (+10.8).

The Michigan Wolverines’ best chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game will be to upset Ohio State (+1.7) in the last weekend of the season. But, in order to put themselves into that position, the Maize and Blue likely need to win at least two of the road games at USC (+2.5), at Nebraska (+4.5) and at Michigan State (+12.9).

Other Potential Dark Horse Contenders

While the four primary contenders have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, I estimate that there is a 65% chance that at least one team outside of this group will make it to Indianapolis.

No. 21 Illinois, No. 22 Indiana, No. 25 USC and No. 30 Nebraska are the most likely secondary, dark horse contenders. No. 32 Iowa, No. 36 Washington and No. 42 Minnesota have lower odds, but are all worth consideration.

The bulleted list above highlights several key games involving this list of secondary contenders and the group of four primary favorites. In order to have a shot at Big Ten glory, this group of teams will need to find success within their peer group. The list below highlights the games this fall where the dark horse Big Ten contenders square off against one another.

• Sept. 20: Illinois at Indiana (-3.2)
• Sept. 27: Indiana at Iowa (+0.5)
• Sept. 27: USC at Illinois (-5.5)
• Oct. 18: Nebraska at Minnesota (+0.5)
• Oct. 25: Illinois at Washington (+2.2)
• Nov. 1: USC at Nebraska (-1.5)
• Nov. 8: Nebraska at UCLA (+3.5)
• Nov. 15: Iowa at USC (-6.5)
• Nov. 22: Illinois at Wisconsin (+4)
• Nov. 29: Iowa at Nebraska (-4.5)

Based on Table 4, the most interesting potential dark horse contender is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers hold just the eighth-best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. However, they are projected to finish with a 7-2 record in both the most likely and disruptive scenarios.

Nebraska is expected to loss decisively at Penn State (-17.8) on Nov. 22, but the remaining eight conference games are all winnable. If the Cornhuskers can upset Michigan (-4.5) on Sept. 20, they project to be favored in every other game until the contest in State College. 

The games at Minnesota (+0.4), at UCLA (+3.5) and versus USC (+1.7) will be challenging, but if Nebraska is a little better than expected or a little bit lucky, a final conference record of 8-1 is certainly possible.

Illinois is currently projected to be favored in seven of the nine Big Ten games. The Fighting Illini own the easiest overall conference schedule and could certainly challenge for a slot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The toughest games on the schedule for Illinois are the home game against Ohio State (-6.2) on Oct. 11 and the Big Ten opener at Indiana (-3.2) on Sept. 20. If the Illini can win one of those two games, the biggest remaining hurdles are winnable road games against Washington (+2.2) and Wisconsin (+3.8) and a home game against USC (+5.4)

The path appears to be narrower for the remaining contenders. Indiana will be a heavy underdog on the road at Oregon (-10.8) and at Penn State (-14.5). Even if the Hoosiers can win one of those games, they will still likely need to beat Illinois (+3.2) at home and Iowa (+0.4) on the road in order to have a shot to make the title game.

USC has a brutal road schedule, including games at Oregon (-12.1), at Illinois (-5.4) and at Nebraska (-1.7), and home games against Michigan (-2.5) and Iowa (+6.4). It is hard to imagine that the Trojans will win more than three of those game unless they are much better than expected.

Iowa has the toughest conference schedule of any of the contenders listed above. The Hawkeyes have the advantage of playing both Oregon (-7.5) and Penn State (-11.3) at home, but those games are still mostly likely losses. Even if Iowa were to spring one upset in that pair of games, the Hawkeyes would likely need to run the table at USC (-6.4), at Nebraska (-4.4), at Wisconsin (-0.6) and versus Indiana (-0.4).

Washington is the only potential contender that draws three of the four primary contenders on the schedule in 2025. The Huskies draw Ohio State (-12) and Oregon (-8.9), as well as Illinois (-2.2), in Seattle. It is tough to imagine getting more than one win in that group of three games. Washington also has road games at Michigan (-13.9) and Wisconsin (-2).

Finally, Minnesota is intriguing, as my analysis of 2024 suggests that the Gophers might be a lot better than expected this year. But road games at Ohio State (-21.2), Oregon (-18.1) and Iowa (-6.9) are going to make it difficult for them to contend.

The remaining seven Big Ten teams are not expected to finish conference play with a winning record, but that does not mean that all hope is lost. In last year’s Big Ten preview, the math compelled me to pick Indiana to finish last in the conference with a projected 1-8 record.

Instead, Indiana went 11-1 in the regular season and made an appearance in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Similar to the Hoosiers in 2024, one or more Big Ten teams are likely to be much, much better than we currently project.

With this in mind, I noticed that even though No. 73 Maryland projects to go winless in Big Ten play, the Terrapins only play one of the primary contenders (Michigan) and they face the Wolverines at home. The toughest game on the Maryland schedule is at Illinois. If the Terrapins wind up being better than expected, their schedule is very favorable.