College Football Betting Picks Week 2: Can Michigan beat Oklahoma on the road?

Week 1 of the 2025 college football season was full of excitement. Florida State shocked everyone by bullying Alabama to a 31-17 victory, Ohio State toppled Texas, the nation’s No. 1 team at the time and LSU went into the ‘other’ Death Valley to defeat Clemson. Now we are onto Week 2 of the college football season, and we got our betting picks in for the weekend.

Records
Ari Wasserman: 7-4
Andy Staples: 5-6

On to the picks…

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Illinois at Duke (+3) O/U: 49.5

Andy: The Illini seemed to right up last week where they left off in their bowl win against South Carolina, which is to be expected for a veteran team coached by Bret Bielema. They hammered FCS opponent Western Illinois 52-3, and it gave quarterback Luke Altmyer a low-pressure opportunity to break in receivers who are adjusting to bigger roles. Duke needed three quarters to get going against FCS opponent Elon, but quarterback Darian Mensah had a very efficient day. This one is tough to pick because we’ve seen so little of this version of Duke. We know what Illinois is at this point, and that’s one of the better teams in the Big Ten.
The pick: Illinois to cover.

Ari: We spent a large portion of the summer discussion that Illinois had a real chance of being this year’s Indiana. The one thing we pointed out during those discussions was that a road game at Duke is going to be more difficult than it may seem on the surface. Manny Diaz’s Duke isn’t, well, the same old Duke. And while everyone is going to give into the temptation to pick the trendy team, I’m going to take the 3 points at home.
The Pick: Duke to cover.

Iowa at Iowa State (-3) O/U: 41.5

Andy: I’m the one who predicted South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski would bring Iowa’s offense into the modern age. Gronowski’s performance against Albany — cut short by cramping in the third quarter — suggests I may have been wrong. (And that there might be a force field around the Iowa football program that repels competent quarterback play.) So I’m going to ride with the quarterback who has proven himself at the power conference level. Iowa State’s Rocco Becht is what Iowa coaches hope Gronowski can turn into. But Becht is already fully formed.
The pick: Iowa State to cover.

Ari: You have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the last time Iowa lost to Iowa State by more than three. Yes, the first game for Mark Gronowski didn’t go according to plan, but I’m not going to overreact to week 1 results. I’m going to go with what I know about this game — it’s also low-scoring and it’s always close — and I’m going to grab the field goal.
The Pick: Iowa to cover.

Baylor at SMU (-3) O/U: 65.5

Andy: The total on this game suggests a shootout, and that’s what it should be if Baylor doesn’t get bulldozed up front the way it did against Auburn. After watching his onetime employer run 52 times for a 5.9 yards-per-carry average against the Bears, don’t be shocked if SMU coach Rhett Lashlee starts by trying to run the ball down the throat of the Baylor defense. If that works, the shootout may never happen, but SMU will win. If that doesn’t work, SMU still is capable of winning the shootout. But we’ll probably get to watch a rollercoaster game.
The pick: SMU to cover.

Ari: Baylor was a trendy pick for some to contend for the Big 12 title, but after watching the Bears on Friday night against Auburn, it became clear that defensive line may be a liability for this team. Though points are going to be scored in bunches on Saturday, SMU just has multiple ways to win this game. SMU gets this one and Baylor starts 0-2.
The pick: SMU to cover.

Ole Miss at Kentucky (+10) O/U: 52.5

Andy: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin pointed out this week that the last four games in this series have been decided by three or fewer points. I pointed out on Monday’s show that I took 9.5-point underdog South Carolina to cover against Kentucky this week last year because it just felt like too many points. So logically, I should take Kentucky to cover with all those points available. But I just can’t do it.
The pick: Ole Miss to cover.

Ari:We can go down the rabbit hole of what happened last season and try to pick another Kentucky win, but last season isn’t this season. Ole Miss may be nearly as good as it was a year ago and Kentucky, well, isn’t very good. I’m a big believer in Austin Simmons and even though the game is in Lexington, Ole Miss gets its payback.
The pick: Ole Miss to cover.

Kansas at Missouri (-6.5) O/U: 50.5

Andy: This is a renewal of a classic Big 8/Big 12 rivalry that hasn’t been played since Missouri’s last year in the Big 12 in 2011. That’s probably for the best, because a lot of those years Kansas didn’t field a competitive team. But now Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks are extremely competitive — and competent — and feature one of the most exciting QBs in the country in Jalon Daniels. That said, Eli Drinkwitz has built Missouri into a program that expects to win nine or 10 games a season. New QB1 Beau Pribula looked excellent in his debut against Central Arkansas. Now he’ll get tested. If Missouri’s roster is where it needs to be for SEC play, the Tigers should find a way to win.
The pick: Missouri to cover.

Ari: Did we spend the entire offseason undervaluing Kansas because it got off to a slow start last year? What if the Kansas we got at the end of last season is the Kansas of 2025? Jalon Daniels looks the part so far, doesn’t he? Eli Drinkwitz has done a great job at Missouri, but Kansas is simply getting too many points and has looked too hot this year to not grab them.
The pick: Kansas to cover.

USF at Florida (-17.5) O/U: 54.5

Andy: USF was one of the darlings of week one after destroying Boise State on Thursday. The world seemed to have forgotten that a healthy Byrum Brown results in a dangerous offense that requires the defense to respect the possibility of a QB run at any given moment. Florida, meanwhile, went through the motions against ridiculously overmatched Long Island. USF’s defense should provide a much better picture of where Gators QB D.J. Lagway is after an offseason in which various ailments prevented him from the optimum amount of work with his teammates.
The pick: Florida to cover.

Ari: Florida is the real deal this year, right? There really is nothing to learn from the Gators blowout of Long Island, but I still believe that D.J. Lagway and company are going to be a problem in the SEC. There’s hype around the quarterback on the other team in this game, too, as Byrum Brown showed electric athleticism in Thursday’s win over Boise State. The Gators, though, are too big and strong.
The pick: Florida to cover.

Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech (-1) O/U: TBD

Andy: Virginia Tech hung tough for three quarters against South Carolina. That said, you’re giving Diego Pavia a point! I’ll happily take that point.
The pick: Vanderbilt to cover.

Ari: Virginia Tech fought like hell against South Carolina on Sunday. Unfortunately, it didn’t take the multiple opportunities it had to win the Beamer Bowl in Atlanta. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Virginia Tech is emotionally gassed from that game and Vanderbilt is headed to Blacksburg hungry. Give me the point.
The pick: Vanderbilt to cover.

Arizona State at Mississippi State (+7) O/U: 58.5

Andy: Mississippi State is much more talented than last year’s version. (Read Chris Low’s excellent story on the Bulldogs to understand why.) Plus, the cowbells will be clanging in Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt’s ears. That said, the Leavitt-to-Jordyn Tyson connection is back. Tyson, who missed the Big 12 title game and the Peach Bowl with an injury, caught 12 passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns against Northern Arizona. But a little Clanga Clanga can do strange things to opponents. Mississippi State keeps this one close.
The pick: Mississippi State to cover.

Ari: Mississippi State did a much better job against Southern Miss last week than people expected. In fact, the Bulldogs made short order of its opponent despite being a trendy upset pick. But Arizona State is a real team that’s favored to win a power conference. Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson are coming into town. Even if the Sun Devils aren’t quite as good as they were a year ago, they should be able to win this game by 10.
The pick: Arizona State to cover.

Michigan at Oklahoma (-6.5) O/U: 46.5

Andy: This is the type of game that can make Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood a legend. It’s also a game where a true freshman QB will make his first road start against a notoriously confusing defense, so there would be no shame if Underwood struggles. The biggest question is whether Oklahoma’s offensive line — which should be getting two projected starters back from injury — can hold up against a ferocious Michigan defensive front.
The pick: Oklahoma to cover.

Ari: I’ve spent the entire offseason telling everyone I thought Oklahoma was going to win this game. Some people agreed, but many rolled their eyes. When I saw the spread, though, I was kind of shocked. I thought Oklahoma would be laying 2.5 or something like that. Though I still feel good about Oklahoma winning the game, 6.5 points is too many with Michigan’s defensive line going up against a Sooners offensive front that still has a lot to prove.
The pick: Michigan to cover.