College Football Playoff: Josh Pate predicts quarterfinal games, sets semifinal matchups

The College Football Playoff is set to pick back up again on New Year’s Eve, with Miami taking on Ohio State. Shortly after, on New Year’s Day, the rest of the quarterfinal matchups will take place.

It’s time to evaluate some of those matchups. To that end, college football analyst Josh Pate put his thoughts out to the world on the four quarterfinal matchups on Sunday’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show.

So who did he pick to win? Let’s break it down below.

Oregon (-2.5) vs. Texas Tech

The Pick: Oregon wins and covers
To open his preview of this matchup, Pate pointed out one key factor: Neither team has been all that well tested in non-conference play. So it’s hard to know what each is bringing to the table, with league play the main indicator of strength and question marks remaining about just how good the Big 12 and Big Ten are.

That said, Pate believes Oregon has yet to hit its ceiling and has considerable room to play better still. The key to the game? The Texas Tech run defense. Can Oregon figure it out and run the ball or will that dictate the entire pace of the game? Pate bet on Oregon rushing for more than 142 yards. He likes the Ducks — “I simply believe Oregon is a better football team and they’re going to rev the engine a little bit.”

Alabama (+6.5) vs. Indiana

The Pick: Alabama wins
This one has the potential to get wild with flooding rains in the forecast. That could play a big factor in this one, if it plays out that way. It might also affect Alabama more, which has been a little one-dimensional as a pass-happy team. To that end, Pate asked the question: Can a one-dimensional offense win in the College Football Playoff?

On the other side, Indiana has three keys to win the game: pressure the quarterback, run the ball and own third down. Still, Pate thinks people are sleeping on Alabama. He’s taking the Crimson Tide straight up in this one. It will take Ty Simpson having a very efficient game and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack being a difference-maker — “I’m not going with (the crowd) this week. I’ll venture out on that branch all by myself.”

Georgia (-6.5) vs. Ole Miss

The Pick: Georgia wins and covers
This game is pretty simple in Pate’s mind. It really boils down to how well Trinidad Chambliss can play and whether he can will Ole Miss to a win. He called Chambliss the most “dangerous” quarterback in the College Football Playoff and likened him to a 3-point shooter who can get red hot at any time.

Still, Georgia is too well built as a team. So long as Georgia doesn’t give up huge plays, Pate doesn’t see a scenario where Ole Miss rushes for a ton of yards and wins that way. He stressed that Georgia doesn’t have to be perfect, and it also has the most reliable part of this game: its ground game — “I just trust Kirby (Smart) in these games. I trust Kirby in this game. And my third reason is I trust Kirby in this game. I’ll take Georgia to win and cover.”

Miami (+9.5) vs. Ohio State

The Pick: Ohio State wins, Miami covers
There are a few things to keep an eye on in this game. The first is the motivation factor with Ohio State. Was the Indiana loss the equivalent of the 2024 Michigan loss? If so, Ohio State could win the College Football Playoff, Pate said. But there’s reason to think Miami could make it a game.

For one, Pate likes Miami on both lines of scrimmage and he thinks they have the experience edge at quarterback. Can Carson Beck be someone Miami can trust? That’s the most important dynamic in the game. Pate said he thinks Beck will have a good game and won’t be “a handcuff.” Still, Ohio State doesn’t shoot itself in the foot as much. So the verdict? “I’m stunned the number opened that high … Clearly I’ll take Miami and the points. I’ll trust the having been there. I’ll trust that angle and I’ll take Ohio State to win. I’m going to take Miami and the points, though.”