College Football Playoff Prediction: CBS Sports projects first CFP Top 25 after Week 4

Four weeks are in the books in the 2025 college football season. CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford has updated his College Football Playoff projections are the weekend that was.

Multiple teams made their impact in Week 4. Miami asserted their dominance with a win over Florida, while Oklahoma took care of business at home against Auburn. Elsewhere, Michigan was able to escape Lincoln with a huge win over Nebraska, and Texas Tech took a stranglehold on the Big 12 with a victory on the road against Utah.

Moving forward, we have an idea of which teams will contend for the Playoff based on the past four weeks. Check out Crawford’s full projections for the Top 25 below, and see where CBS Sports believes your team currently stands. 

1. Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion)

Miami seemed poised to roll over Florida early, but the Gators’ defense held strong for much of the game, despite Carson Beck struggling at times. Ultimately, Miami’s depth wore Florida down, leading to a lopsided win as the ‘Canes head into a bye week to prepare for a showdown with unbeaten Florida State in Week 6.

Crawford: “If college football produces an unbeaten team during a season filled with early parity, the Hurricanes will be that squad. Miami’s defense continues to manhandle the opposition and just delivered its most spectacular outing of the year on that side of the football over the weekend against Florida.”

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten Champion)

Ohio State entered its bye week after cruising through back-to-back non-conference games, following a season-opening win over Texas. The Buckeyes’ schedule remains manageable, though a road trip to Washington this week should provide a tougher test. We’ll see what they have in store.

Crawford: “Ohio State’s first Big Ten test comes this weekend at Washington, one of the most under-the-radar matchups on Saturday. The Huskies are unbeaten and unranked in anticipation of the national spotlight against the Buckeyes.”

3. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC Champion)

Georgia comes off a bye following an emotional overtime win at Tennessee, a key victory for their College Football Playoff and SEC title hopes. Now, the Bulldogs will host Alabama in a massive showdown, with the winner firmly in the national title conversation.

Crawford: “Kirby Smart will feel great about his team if they’re able to beat Alabama between the hedges this weekend. That would be the Bulldogs’ second straight victory over one of the league’s fellow elites and provides another quality mark in the resume column ahead of the selection committee’s first rankings in a few weeks.”

4. Oregon Ducks

Oregon improved to 4-0 with a dominant win over Oregon State, setting up a huge showdown with Penn State next week that could shape the Big Ten race. Quarterback Dante Moore shined again, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, while the Oregon rushing attack added 280 yards on the ground.

Crawford: “There are a couple playoff locks after the first quarter of the campaign and the Ducks are one of them. … Another unbeaten regular season and berth in the Big Ten title game should essentially guarantee a top-4 seed and first-round bye given the resume.”

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12 Champion)

Crawford: “The Red Raiders have been our pick to win the Big 12 since mid-summer and that’s not changing following Saturday’s win at Utah. For the Red Raiders, BYU is the only other opponent on the schedule currently ranked inside the top 25.”

6. Florida State Seminoles

Florida State rolled past Kent State, putting up 35 first-quarter points to seize control early. Starting quarterback Tommy Castellanos was injured during the game and did not return, leaving questions about whether he’ll be fully healthy for next week. The Seminoles certainly need him for their showdown against Miami in Week 6.

Crawford: “Be careful, Seminoles. Friday night’s game at Virginia is no walkover and Florida State’s strengths will be tested on the road. The Cavaliers’ lone loss came to unbeaten NC State, 35-31.”

7. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M entered their bye week on a wave of momentum after a dramatic come-from-behind win over Notre Dame. Quarterback Marcel Reed has added a dynamic spark, and the defense is doing just enough for coach Mike Elko to keep racking up wins. This week’s matchup with Auburn will be the next test.

Crawford: “This would be an extremely impressive resume for the Aggies, if they’re able to get to the SEC Championship Game this season. The win at Notre Dame should carry weight, even if the Irish finish in the eight- or nine-win range and miss the playoff.”

8. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama enters their Week 5 matchup against Georgia with a 2–1 record, following a season-opening loss to Florida State and a couple nice bounce back victories. The Crimson Tide’s offense has shown promise, especially against the Badgers their last time out, with quarterback Ty Simpson leading the way with four touchdown passes in Week 4.

Crawford: “We’re not buying the Crimson Tide just yet. In fact, it’s feasible that Kalen DeBoer’s team could lose this weekend in Athens and still finish with 10 wins. If it happens, that would include resume-building wins over nationally-ranked Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.”

9. LSU Tigers

LSU followed its win over Florida with a tune-up against Southeastern Louisiana, cruising as expected. The Tigers still have lingering offensive concerns, and a road trip to Ole Miss looms as a far tougher test for the team.

Crawford: “Now that we have a month’s worth of data points for the Tigers, they’re no longer our projected SEC champion. The win at Clemson isn’t nearly as sexy given Dabo Swinney’s abrupt fall and there are still running game issues to sort out offensively.”

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State also entered its bye week after rolling through three non-conference cupcakes, leaving the Nittany Lions largely untested. That changes next week when Oregon visits Happy Valley in a showdown that will help set the early Big Ten pecking order. It should be a raucous environment for the showdown.

Crawford: “The Nittany Lions are outside of our projected top 4 for the first time this season heading into Saturday night’s pivotal showdown with Oregon because, bluntly, the Ducks are coming into this one hotter than expected with Dante Moore sizzling at quarterback.”

CBS Sports’ CFP Top 25 projections — Nos. 11-25:

11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
12. South Florida Bulls (Group of Five Champion)
13. Oklahoma Sooners
14. Tennessee Volunteers
15. TCU Horned Frogs
16. Indiana Hoosiers
17. Ole Miss Rebels
18. Texas Longhorns
19. Memphis Tigers
20. Missouri Tigers
21. Iowa State Cyclones
22. Vanderbilt Commodores
23. Michigan Wolverines
24. USC Trojans
25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

CBS Sports’ projected 2025 College Football Playoff bracket:

• No. 12 USF at No. 5 Texas Tech (winner plays No. 4 Oregon)
• No. 11 Oklahoma Georgia Tech at No. 6 Florida State (winner plays No. 3 Georgia)
• No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Florida State Texas A&M (winner plays No. 2 Ohio State)
• No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Alabama (winner plays No. 1 Miami)