College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 5

Week 5 gave college football fans perhaps the best slate of games yet this season. Moreover, it gave analysts plenty to mull over. After undoubtedly a restless night, ESPN’s Heather Dinich released her updated College Football Playoff rankings on Sunday, along with her latest CFP bracket projection.

While Dinich’s rankings are simply her opinion on the 12 best teams in college football, there’ll be far more nuance to the CFP bracket. The five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically receive a playoff bid, ensuring that one non-Power Four team will make the cut.

While Group-of-Five teams have had moments to shine this season, Week 5 was all about the powerhouse programs. With so many talented teams to cover, let’s dive into Dinich’s updated CFP rankings.

1. Miami Hurricanes

Miami retained its top spot in Dinich’s CFP rankings despite not playing this week. The Hurricanes enjoyed a bye this weekend after routing in-state rival Florida in Week 4.

In the 26-7 victory, Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. stole the show. Fletcher tallied 116 yards and a touchdown in the victory. CharMar Brown didn’t trail far behind, notching 80 rushing yards and two scores.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State’s showdown against Washington on Saturday was both its first road game and Big Ten matchup this season. The Buckeyes handled the challenges with grace, running away with a 24-6 triumph over the Huskies.

As usual, OSU wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was spectacular, racking up a game-high eight catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Though the Buckeyes are second in Dinich’s CFP rankings, they are still No. 1 in the AP Top 25.

3. Oregon Ducks (+5)

Ohio State won’t have an easy road to a Big Ten crown. Oregon has looked nothing short of fantastic this season and picked up its most impressive win yet this weekend. On Saturday, the Ducks downed Penn State in front of a rowdy White Out crowd.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore continued to look like a Heisman Trophy candidate. He completed 29-of-his-39 pass attempts for 248 yards and three touchdowns, without throwing an interception. Oregon showed off its discipline in the double-overtime thriller, committing just two penalties for a total loss of 10 yards.

4. Texas A&M Aggies (+1)

Each week, the SEC picture only becomes more muddled. Alas, for now, Texas A&M is rising to the top of the conference. On Saturday, defeated Auburn 16-10 to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2016.

Texas A&M’s defense outshined any individual performance. The Aggies held Auburn to just nine first downs in the win. Moreover, Auburn didn’t succeed on a single one of its 13 third-down conversion attempts.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (NR)

If Texas A&M is 1A in the SEC heading into Week 6, Ole Miss is 1B. The Rebels boast one of the strongest résumés in the country, with three wins over SEC foes and a victory against Group-of-Five darling Tulane.

On Saturday, Ole Miss picked up its best win yet with a hard-fought 24-19 victory over LSU. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss tallied 314 passing yards and a touchdown in the win. It’s his third consecutive game with 300 or more passing yards, since taking over for an injured Austin Simmons in Week 3.

6. Oklahoma Sooners (+1)

Oklahoma didn’t play this weekend, but it likely needed the rest. It was a hectic week in Norman after Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables announced star quarterback John Mateer would need surgery on his throwing hand.

Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. will start in Mateer’s absence. Alas, Mateer may not be gone for long. In the middle of last week, On3’s Pete Nakos reported Mateer could be back as early as Oct. 11, for Oklahoma’s showdown against Texas in the Red River Rivalry.

7. Florida State Seminoles (-3)

Florida State only fell three spots in Dinich’s CFP rankings despite suffering a 46-38 loss to Virginia on Friday. In fairness, FSU was on the road and took the Cavaliers to double-overtime. However, the loss could loom large down the road for the Seminoles.

FSU dug itself in a hole early against Virginia and had to claw its way out the rest of the game. The Seminoles committed three turnovers in the loss, including two interceptions. FSU must recompose itself before it faces off against Miami in Week 6.

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (NR)

Alabama is back in the hunt for a CFP spot after taking down Georgia 24-21 on Saturday. It was a statement win for the Crimson Tide, who came under heavy fire after they suffered a season-opening loss to Florida State.

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is now 2-0 against Georgia and will look to use the game as a springboard for the rest of the season. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was excellent in the win, notching 276 passing yards and two scores, while throwing no interceptions.

9. Georgia Bulldogs (-6)

Dinich punished Georgia for its loss to Alabama, but didn’t remove the Bulldogs from her playoff picture. After all, Georgia defeated Tennessee only two weeks ago.

Georgia couldn’t find many holes in Alabama’s pass defense on Saturday, but its run game looked strong. UGA running back Chauncey Bowens particularly had a solid showing, racking up a game-high 119 rushing yards and a TD.

10. Indiana Hoosiers (+1)

Indiana improved to 5-0 with a 20-15 victory over Iowa on Saturday. While the CFP selection committee members will surely take the Hoosiers’ first road victory of the season into account, they’re likely still gawking at Indiana’s 63-10 win over Illinois in Week 4.

Indiana’s beatdown on the Fighting Illini only became more impressive this weekend after Illinois bounced back with a win over USC. Although Indiana isn’t lauded like some of its Big Ten counterparts, it could be making a return to the CFP this season.

11. Tennessee Volunteers (-1)

Tennessee showed off its resiliency on Saturday with a 41-34 win over Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs aren’t breaking any records this season, they’re a quality opponent and were undefeated heading into Week 5.

In the win, Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar threw for 335 yards and a touchdown. However, he also threw two interceptions. Despite some struggles, Aguilar made arguably the biggest play of the game when he ran in a 6-yard touchdown to force overtime.

12. Penn State Nittany Lions (-3)

Patience is growing thin in Happy Valley. Penn State fans booed their own team numerous times on Saturday before the Nittany Lions mounted a comeback and forced overtime against Oregon.

Much of fans’ frustrations are aimed at head coach James Franklin, who’s had trouble winning big games during his tenure. However, the fanbase is also upset with quarterback Drew Allar, who only completed 14-of-his-25 pass attempts for 137 yards against the Ducks.

ESPN’s CFP Bracket Projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami