College Football Playoff: Projecting 12-team bracket after week 9

When the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first ranking for the 2023 season on Tuesday, don’t stop watching at No. 4. Pay attention to how the teams down the line get ranked, because it will be very instructive for us as we prepare for a 12-team playoff world.

This is an unusual year for the four-team CFP. In recent years, there might only be six to eight teams still capable of making the four-team playoff at this point in the season. This year, that number probably stretches to 10. When the 12-team CFP starts, there likely will be 20 or more teams still in striking distance of a playoff berth when those first rankings debut. 

But for now, let’s keep training our brains to get ready for next year. Remember, we aren’t using the new conference alignments for this exercise, and we’re still using the 12-team CFP rules that were approved last year. Those require that the teams seeded one through four are conference champs. There remains a chance that one of the six automatic bids could be taken away by the time the 2024 season starts. But for this exercise, we’ll go with six automatic bids and six at-large bids.

1. Georgia (SEC champ)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champ)
3. Florida State (ACC champ)
4. Oregon (Pac-12 champ) 
5. Ohio State (At-large)
6. Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
7. Washington (At-large)
8. Texas (At-large)
9. Alabama (At-large)
10. Louisville (At-large)
11. Notre Dame (At-large)
12. Air Force (Mountain West champ)

Playoff Bracket Matchups

No. 12 Air Force at No. 5 Ohio State
***Winner plays No. 4 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Oklahoma
***Winner plays No. 3 Florida State in the Cotton Bowl

No. 10 Louisville at No. 7 Washington
***Winner plays No. 2 Michigan in the Orange Bowl

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Texas
***Winner plays No. 1 Georgia in the Peach Bowl