Comparing first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings to BCS formula prediction

The first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2023 season have been released, opening up all kinds of potential debates about where the selection committee has certain teams slotted. But where would the BCS rankings have teams ranked right now?

Luckily for us, we don’t have to guess. The fine folks over at BCSKnowHow.com have tabulated would-be BCS results for us so we can peruse them at our leisure.

Let’s take a look today at how the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings differs from the BCS, starting with the top six teams and then progressing to the rest of the field. Here we go.

1. CFP: Ohio State | BCS: Ohio State

Unsurprisingly there’s no difference at the top. Ohio State’s strong resume was well deserving of the top spot handed out by the CFP selection committee, anchored by signature wins already over Notre Dame and Penn State. Ohio State will get a chance to add another later in the season against Michigan.

The margin for Ohio State in the BCS was fairly wide, too. Michigan is reasonably close, but the rest of the teams are a clear notch below Ohio State in the BCS rankings. That’s not likely to change so long as Ohio State keeps winning, though Georgia will beef up its schedule strength a good bit in the final month of the season.

2. CFP: Georgia | BCS: Michigan

We have our first discrepancy between the College Football Playoff rankings and the BCS, as the human voters went with Georgia as the No. 2 team while the BCS had Michigan. What’s interesting about Michigan being up at No. 2 — and a relatively strong No. 2 by the numbers in the BCS — is that the BCS doesn’t seem to mind Michigan’s light schedule to date.

That’s been a point of contention for the analysts when it comes to Michigan; many find it hard to credit the Wolverines too much for playing a very soft schedule so far. In any case, it doesn’t look like much is going to keep Michigan out of the playoffs barring the team losing somewhere. Both the humans and the computers love the Wolverines.

3. CFP: Michigan | BCS: Georgia

As discussed above, Michigan leads Georgia in the computers and not by an insubstantial margin. While Michigan checked in with a 0.9395 score in the BCS, Georgia checked in at just 0.9166. As far as the BCS goes that is a pretty sizeable gap between the two programs.

Both Georgia and Michigan have a little bit of the same resume problem right now. The schedules to this point have been pretty light compared to many of their College Football Playoff peers. That’s going to change for both, though, with Georgia facing a few ranked teams and Michigan still yet to square off with Penn State and Ohio State.

4. CFP: Florida State | BCS: Florida State

Florida State is the consensus No. 4 team for the voters and the computers, and there’s a wide gap between Florida State and Washington at No. 5. Clearly there’s a pretty set top four for both the selection committee and the BCS right now. Florida State’s BCS tally is at 0.9005, while Washington’s is 0.8442.

The Seminoles have a pretty clear path. They just have to keep winning. That’s especially important as the league doesn’t appear to have a strong second contender. Because of that, any loss will be magnified. It’s possible Florida State may not survive a loss without the backstop of a strong conference title opponent to back it up.

5. CFP: Washington | BCS: Washington

Washington checks in at No. 5 in both the College Football Playoff rankings and the BCS right now. And there’s a significant gap on both sides of the Huskies when it comes to the BCS. They’re not in any danger of slipping further without a loss, but they’re not exactly in position to jump up without something major happening either. If this were the BCS, that is.

But with the selection committee, there will be ample time to impress still. Washington still has a number of marquee games coming up, plus a potential Pac-12 title game. There will probably be enough ammo there for Washington to make a compelling case to be a playoff team if it just keeps winning.

6. CFP: Oregon | BCS: Texas

Here’s a spot where the BCS and the selection committee actually differ quite a bit, as the College Football Playoff rankings have Oregon up at No. 6, while the BCS has the Ducks down at No. 8. It’s worth noting there’s not a big gap separating Oregon at No. 8 and the current No. 6 in the BCS, Texas.

Like Washington, Oregon will get a chance to keep adding to its resume, thanks to the top half of the Pac-12 being very good this year. Unlike Washington, Oregon already has a loss to contend with, so there can be no more missteps if the Ducks want in.

College Football Playoff and BCS, 7-25

There aren’t a ton of glaring differences in the BCS and College Football Playoff rankings this week, but there are at least a few that make you raise an eyebrow. One that will get SEC fans leaning to the edges of their seats.

That’s the juxtaposition of LSU and Missouri in this week’s ranking. While the CFP selection committee had Missouri at No. 12 and LSU at No. 14, the BCS actually has LSU ranked at No. 13 and Missouri at No. 14.

Why is that notable? Well, LSU beat Missouri at Missouri in the regular season, but the Bayou Bengals have two losses while the CoMo Tigers have only one. Probably not super important given where the teams rank in the grand scheme of things, but certainly worth noting.

One of the other things that stands out about the BCS rankings is the love it’s giving to the Group of Five.

The highest-ranked Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff rankings was Tulane at No. 24. But the BCS rankings actually have Air Force all the way up at 16, while also including James Madison at No. 18, Tulane at No. 23 and Liberty at No. 25.

That’s an interesting dynamic, given the expansion of the playoff field was in theory designed to help more teams, like Group of Five teams, access. Anyway, have fun taking a look at the differences between the College Football Playoff rankings and the BCS above.